Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
707 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

A complicated set up is in place at 08Z with overnight convection
along the KS/NE border in association with LLJ convergence
continuing to evolve into a more linear small scale MCS advancing
into the richer elevated theta-e axis.  Severe threat at this time
is low with a stable low level boundary layer and the LLJ beginning
to show some signs of weakening on VAD wind profiles. With that
said, some stronger winds may occur with some cells if strong
enough precipitation mixes down stronger winds aloft. The upper
pattern remains mainly zonal with embedded waves traversing the
area. Currently, another cluster of storms is forward propagating
into portions of western KS. This cluster of storms is expected to
enter northeastern KS near the 12-15Z time frame. This will
further complicate the mesoscale set up as currently a diffuse
outflow boundary is stretched along the I-70 corridor. The
synoptic boundary appears to be laid through southeastern NE back
through an inverted trough and leeside low over SE CO into SW KS
vicinity.

Into early this morning, expecting ongoing convection to continue
and taper off by mid to late morning over northeast KS as the LLJ
veers and weakens over the area.  Still some stronger updrafts could
persist with marginal shear and steep mid level lapse rates
contributing to pulsing nature.  As convection diminishes and moves
out of the area, clearing should take place with a weak mid level
cap in place.  Most guidance suggests that with strong
destabilization into the afternoon will likely take place as
southerly WAA continues to pool richer gulf moisture along and ahead
of the synoptic boundary.  As and impending shortwave approaches the
region, mid level lapse rates should steepen and put MLCAPE values
in the 3000-4000 J/kg range. A top of this instability, deep layer
shear values range from 35-50kts which suggests there will be
potential for any storms that develop to quickly rotate.  As
discrete cells mature, there is at least some potential for a
tornado threat to be in place early on into a portion of the evening
hours as SRH values should be between 100-150 m2/s2.  Minimizing
this threat is the fact that surface winds probably remain more
southerly to slightly southwesterly.   However, with the complicated
outflow set up from multiple previous storms over the area, there
could be an opportunity for some storms to ingest more favorable
baroclinic vorticity and stretch that into the updrafts.  Something
that will likely be watch carefully.  But, a large hail threat and
strong outflow wind threat still appears most likely outcome. Storms
should transition into a linear complex once again as the evening
progresses and eventually move out of the area.  Heavy rain is
expected also with these storms, so while the flash flood watch has
been passed at this time it won't be entirely out of the question
that one or two flash flood warnings may be needed. Again, this will
likely be highly localized.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Friday through Friday night, the upper trough across the central
plains will will shift eastward into the mid MS river valley. The
surface front will push southeast of the CWA after 12Z. The heavier
rain and thunderstorms will move southeast along the front. There
may be a few isolated showers that redevelop under the H5 trough
axis Friday afternoon but these should end by 23Z. Highs will be
cooler in the lower 80s.

Saturday and Saturday night, the upper trough across the eastern
conus will amplify and cause the mid and upper level flow across the
plains to be from the northwest. At the surface a ridge of high
pressure will push southeast across eastern KS into southern MO and
AR. Highs will be in the mid 80s, with dewpoints in the mid to upper
50s.

Sunday through Wednesday, An upper level trough will move east
across the central rockies, then dig southeast and amplify across
the plains. Both he ECMWF and GFS are much slower digging this upper
trough across the eastern plains. Therefore, expect a chance for
showers and thunderstorms from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon. I'm sure there will be some breaks in the rain chances
but 4th of July fire works shows may see at least the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 80s.

Wednesday night through Thursday. The upper positive tile upper
trough will finally move southeast across the mid and lower MS river
valley. An upper level ridge will build east across the high plains.
Expect temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 90s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

For the 12Z TAFs, showers and storms should taper off within the
next couple hours before a period of relative calm into the noon
time frame before storms are expected to reform this afternoon.
Some storms could be severe. Have handled approximate time frames
with VCTS until confidence increases in exact timing and placement
of storms. Have VFR prevailing right now as only very short
periods of reduced CIG/VIS are expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
421 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-300930-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
421 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There will be a chance for strong to severe storms this morning,
then again late this afternoon and evening. The main hazards will
be large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be
ruled out this afternoon and through the early evening hours.
Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, which could lead to
some localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
514 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

KSZ024-037>040-054-055-291045-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Lyon-Douglas-Jackson-Osage-Morris-
514 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MORRIS...SHAWNEE...WEST
CENTRAL DOUGLAS...SOUTHERN WABAUNSEE...OSAGE...SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON
AND LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

At 514 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Silver Lake to 5 miles
northwest of Eskridge to near Wilsey. Movement was south at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Emporia, Osage City, Council Grove, Carbondale, Rossville,
Eskridge, Tecumseh, Richland, Dover, Silver Lake, Auburn, Overbrook,
Lyndon, Burlingame, Americus, Scranton, Maple Hill, Harveyville and
Reading.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 143.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 339 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 116 and 185.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3852 9635 3852 9664 3868 9673 3898 9620
      3929 9576 3883 9541 3845 9583 3843 9587
      3843 9595 3840 9595 3823 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 1014Z 343DEG 33KT 3918 9581 3892 9619 3866 9664

BD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
538 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

KSZ008-020-291130-
Republic-Cloud-
538 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REPUBLIC AND NORTHWESTERN CLOUD
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

At 537 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Montrose, moving east-northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Belleville, Scandia, Jamestown, Courtland, Cuba, Norway, Republic,
Munden and Agenda.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 4000 9748 3966 9737 3954 9793 4000 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1037Z 250DEG 40KT 3978 9805

Gargan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
554 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

KSZ026-039-040-055-056-059-291145-
Shawnee-Jefferson-Douglas-Franklin-Osage-Anderson-
554 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN...JEFFERSON...SHAWNEE...
NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON...DOUGLAS AND NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 645
AM CDT...

At 553 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Easton to 3 miles south of Lecompton to 3
miles northwest of Burlingame. Movement was east at 55 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Southeast Topeka, Lawrence, Ottawa, Baldwin City, Carbondale, Valley
Falls, Oskaloosa, Tecumseh, Eudora, Perry, McLouth and Scranton.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 172 and 198.
 Interstate 70 near mile marker 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 159 and 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3825 9508 3882 9595 3892 9595 3942 9536
      3942 9518 3897 9519 3898 9516 3895 9509
      3896 9508 3898 9508 3899 9506 3898 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1053Z 286DEG 60KT 3932 9514 3899 9538 3878 9588

Gargan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE LAWRENCE           39.01N 95.22W
06/29/2017  E61 MPH          DOUGLAS            KS   ASOS

            61 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED AT THE LWC ASOS.

&&

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
736 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N NORWAY              39.71N 97.78W
06/29/2017  M3.54 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   PUBLIC

&&

EH

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