Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Topeka, KS

507 
WWUS53 KTOP 311808
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
108 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

KSC045-059-311818-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-170531T1815Z/
Franklin-Douglas-
108 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 115 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3869 9507 3866 9506 3872 9530 3886 9523
      3885 9506 3870 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 287DEG 21KT 3872 9507 

$$

Hennecke

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1247 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

The main focus for today will be the potential for strong to severe
storms this afternoon and evening.  Early this morning, a surface
front was located across northeast Kansas generally oriented from
east to west.  A few scattered storms driven by the mean flow moved
southeast across the area.  Additional storm development in Nebraska
is expected to stream southeast into north central Kansas and
continue to move east through the morning staying generally north of
I-70.  Main focus for any severe storms this afternoon will be the
aforementioned surface front which is expected to be located across
central Kansas just south of I-70.  Models tend to break the cap in
the early to mid afternoon with dewpoints in the low 60s and
sufficient CAPE around 1500 J/kg. Effective shear of 35-40 knots
will also be in place promoting rotating updrafts and possibly
supercells, especially with any discrete storms that form initially.
 Large hail will be possible with any rotating storms.  An isolated
tornado can also not be ruled out near the surface boundary during
the afternoon.  Storms may congeal as time goes on, and with steep
low level lapse rates and higher LCLs, damaging winds will be
possible during the afternoon and into the evening.  Another round
of storms is expected to develop late tonight as the low level jet
ramps up in conjunction with another subtle impulse in the mean mid-
level flow.  Shear will still be near 30 knots overnight and storms
may form into a complex and be capable of strong winds and hail. The
bulk of this precipitation is expected to stay in very far northeast
Kansas.  As for temperatures, highs today will range from the upper
70s to low 80s, with lows tonight warmer than previous nights in the
low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

By Thursday heights rise with weak upper ridging forecast to build
across the area. Any low level boundaries should also mix
north out of the area so precip chcs should trend downward
Thursday and Thu night. By Friday the region will become
influenced by a weak subtropical upper wave that is forecast to
drift across the area. Expect only sct at best diurnal convection
given lack of any boundaries in the area so will keep precip chcs
modest until later Friday night into Saturday when another cold
front will slide into the area. The timing of this front is
uncertain especially later Saturday when the ECMWF shows mainly
dry conds while the GFS has widespread precip so stay tuned as the
forecast for Sat may change. Dry weather should then occur Sunday
into early next week as a large upper low deepens across the Great
Lakes and forces cool high pressure southward through the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

Will continue with a few hours of VCTS with continuing convection
firing to the northwest of the terminals and will watch trends
for prevailing TS. Too much uncertainty for additional convection
at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
355 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-010900-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
355 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered t-storms will develop this afternoon mainly south of
I-70. The main hazards with the storms will be large hail and
damaging winds although an isolated brief tornado cannot be ruled
out.

The main risk for severe storms today should occur between 2pm and
7pm. More storms are expected to develop later tonight and a few
of those could also produce hail and gusty winds along with
locally heavy rains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

T-storms will be possible across the area Friday night through
Saturday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 2pm mainly south of I-70.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1204 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             4 SW AUBURN             38.87N 95.87W
05/31/2017  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1206 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1201 PM     HAIL             4 S AUBURN              38.85N 95.82W
05/31/2017  M1.50 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1220 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 PM     HAIL             2 WNW CARBONDALE        38.82N 95.72W
05/31/2017  E1.75 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED FOR THREE MINUTES. THE DURATION
            OF THE HAIL EVENT WAS 3 MINUTES.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

KSZ038-039-055-311800-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Osage-
1232 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SHAWNEE...
SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE AND NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM
CDT...

At 1232 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Harveyville, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Auburn, Burlingame, Scranton and Harveyville.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 157 and 168.

LAT...LON 3879 9606 3892 9599 3889 9569 3874 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 282DEG 21KT 3885 9593

Hennecke

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

KSZ040-056-311815-
Douglas-Franklin-
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1238 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pleasant Grove, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Baldwin City, Wellsville, Pleasant Grove and Vinland.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 195 and 198.

LAT...LON 3869 9507 3866 9507 3874 9537 3889 9530
      3886 9506 3870 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 282DEG 21KT 3880 9528

Hennecke

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1244 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 PM     HAIL             OVERBROOK               38.78N 95.56W
05/31/2017  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   PUBLIC

&&

SMB