Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
320 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Confidence in specifics for today and tonight is fairly low, but
potential for high-end severe weather is in place. Convection
continues to roll east across northwest Kansas early this morning in
area of good elevated CAPE and moderate low level jet.  Other
convection was over southwest Missouri north of a warm front.
Dewpoints south of this front in the lower 70s with southerly flow
over it. Locally, weak near-surface winds and clear skies until
recently allowing for some slightly reduced visibilities, but
increasing cloud should keep widespread fog in check.

Am leaning toward the linear system to the west to slowly decrease
in intensity with time as moisture convergence and available
moisture decrease, with many models very similar in an area of much
lower 850mb dewpoints moving north through the eastern half of the
state in the 10-14Z window. Will still likely have at least some
remnant convection through the early morning hours in at least
northern areas with some signals of an MCV developing just south of
the Nebraska border at 8Z, with some potential for a weak surface
low to push northeast into the area. Dewpoints could easily reach
the upper 60s as 850mb dewpoints then rise quickly with 500-700mb
lapse rates near 9 C/km to produce extreme ML CAPE with little CIN.
Specifics of where the surface low end up will play a large role in
low-level shear, but WSW 500mb winds around 40kts will supply enough
shear for supercells. Very large hail will be the most apparent
threat, with severe winds and tornadoes also possible, mainly in
southern and eastern areas. Timing and location of overall severe
weather threat very hard to nail down, but could see high surface-
based instability develop by early afternoon. Several hours of at
least east central Kansas being in the warm sector and multiple
sources of weak forcing brings the potential for a few rounds of
storms for locally heavy precip possibilities as well. Upper trough
swings into the area late tonight, which should bring cyclogenesis
well to the east for convection to end by early Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

The latter two thirds of the holiday weekend shape up rather well
as northwesterly flow aloft moves in with surface high pressure
moving southward into the Central Plains. Highs in the upper 70s
Sunday become upper 70s to low 80s on Monday. Overnight lows in
the 50s with northwest winds through the period.

Next chance for rain holding off until late Monday night into
early Tuesday and relegated to our far southern and western
counties where the front resides. Highs again on Tuesday and
Wednesday rise toward 80. Upper pattern starts to shift on
Wednesday from northwesterly to zonal, then the influence of the
trof over the western states into the Rockies starts to shift
eastward as well. This increases rain chances Thursday into Friday
and would likely cool highs a few degrees. Strength of these
storms is a bit far out, but enough CAPE and shear progged for
strong to severe at times late next week. Watch for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

The models have continued to show some variability in the
evolution of storms through the day Saturday. In particular the
HRRR has backed off on bringing a linear MCS through the area
early in the day. However the convective allowing models don't
have the greatest handle on the current convection in western KS.
With models showing a southerly low level jet and isentropic lift
across central KS confirmed by area profiler data, am inclined to
expect storms to hold together and enter the forecast area by mid
morning, even with the latest HRRR casting some doubt. However
uncertainty precludes a more specific forecast for timing in the
terminals. So I still have a VCTS for the most likely window.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
413 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-280915-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
413 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible for the entire area today and this
evening, with the chances ending from northwest to southeast in
the overnight hours. Some of the thunderstorms may be severe, with
the greatest chances for severe weather in the afternoon and early
evening, and southeast of a line from Herington to Manhattan to
Holton. Very large hail up to the size of baseballs, wind gusts up
to 70 MPH, and a few tornadoes are possible. Locally heavy rain
could also occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorm chances return later in the week, with increasing
coverage of storms possible late Wednesday into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon into the
early evening hours.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
746 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KSZ012-024-026-040-271315-
Jefferson-Brown-Douglas-Jackson-
746 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN
DOUGLAS...NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

At 746 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles northwest of White Cloud to 3 miles
northwest of Tonganoxie. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hiawatha, Horton, Valley Falls, Oskaloosa, Perry, McLouth, Ozawkie,
Nortonville, Lecompton, Winchester, Everest, Robinson, Whiting,
Reserve, Powhattan, Hamlin, Willis, Williamstown and Perry Lake.

LAT...LON 4000 9534 3965 9534 3965 9556 3942 9557
      3942 9518 3905 9519 3904 9527 3903 9550
      3906 9550 3907 9553 4000 9570
TIME...MOT...LOC 1246Z 259DEG 32KT 4000 9536 3914 9515

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1003 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KSZ037-271545-
Morris-
1003 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORRIS COUNTY UNTIL 1045
AM CDT...

At 1003 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lincolnville, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Council Grove, Wilsey, Burdick and Council Grove Lake.

LAT...LON 3852 9693 3864 9693 3871 9645 3852 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 1503Z 260DEG 31KT 3853 9693

Sanders

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1043 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KSZ037-038-054-271630-
Wabaunsee-Lyon-Morris-
1043 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS...
SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE AND LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

At 1043 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles east of Council Grove Lake to near
Dunlap to 6 miles east of Strong City. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Council Grove, Eskridge, Americus, Reading, Allen, Admire,
Bushong, Dunlap and Council Grove Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 142.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 122 and 152.

LAT...LON 3852 9635 3852 9647 3874 9654 3889 9609
      3867 9595 3852 9595 3840 9597 3834 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 1543Z 254DEG 35KT 3870 9646 3855 9637 3838 9643

Sanders

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1059 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 AM     HAIL             2 SSW AMERICUS          38.48N 96.27W
05/27/2017  E0.88 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1140 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     HAIL             3 WNW BETO JUNCTION     38.42N 95.74W
05/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       COFFEY             KS   PUBLIC

            SUBWAY RESTAURANT REPORTED SEVERAL QUARTER
            SIZE HAIL STONES.

&&

BD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     HAIL             3 S MELVERN             38.46N 95.63W
05/27/2017  E1.75 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL STONES.

&&

BD