Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Topeka, KS

104 
WWUS53 KTOP 190029
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
729 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

KSC085-149-177-197-190039-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-170519T0030Z/
Shawnee-Wabaunsee-Pottawatomie-Jackson-
729 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE...
NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE...SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHWESTERN
JACKSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3896 9604 3908 9619 3936 9598 3927 9572
      3910 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 217DEG 19KT 3928 9585 

$$

BB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
636 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tonight)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Focus for tonight will be the threat for severe weather across
northeast Kansas.  This afternoon, a warm front was noted across
east central Kansas oriented from east to west.  Main concern this
afternoon will be if storms begin to develop along this warm front
as the HRRR has been depicting  in model runs.  CAPE near/south of
this boundary is over 3000 J/kg with effective bulk shear values of
50 knots.  During the afternoon hours, the NAM also shows 0-1 shear
along this boundary around 25 knots, with steep mid-level lapse
rates. Any discrete storms forming along this boundary will have the
potential to quickly become supercellular with the main hazards
being large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. If storms do form
this afternoon, exact details for tonight look more unclear as
instability will be weaker and subsidence from storms may act to
alleviate severity later tonight.  For tonight, storms that are
expected to fire up on the dry line located in southwestern Kansas
and extending southward into Oklahoma. Models have been fairly
consistent in having these storms congeal into a line/bow and move
through northeast Kansas this evening. This would bring a main
hazard of widespread wind damage across the area, although hail or
an embedded spin up tornado cannot be ruled out.  Additional
development behind this line is possible bringing another round of
heavy rain to the area, increasing the potential for flash flooding.
 This is especially true in areas in north central Kansas that have
already seen heavy rainfall totals earlier in the week.  With the
potential for more developing showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, a
flash flood watch has been issued for the entirety of northeast
Kansas beginning this afternoon and extending into Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The vast majority of the long term forecast period forecast effort
focuses on Friday and Friday night severe/flooding potential, with
periods beyond that generally trending toward a model consensus at
this time with minimal expected impacts through the remainder of
the forecast.

For Friday, much of the details will lie in how quickly convection
exits the area early Friday morning. Current indications are that
it will make a substantial eastward push overnight and exit the
region early. If this occurs, it would give much of the forecast
area more time to recharge instability as the true warm front
surges/mixes back north during the day in advance of a strong
upper level trough. Long, clockwise curved hodographs with low
LCL/LFC heights and rather steep lapse rates through the cloud-
bearing layer all point to another day with widespread severe
weather potential. This will include tornado potential across the
warm sector, and the most likely this warm sector will include
much of eastern Kansas with main uncertainty being in the
northwestward extent. There are two potential limiting factors.
1) Early day convection ends late and keeps the boundary layer
stable for much of the day, effectively mitigating instability.
2) Storms develop too close to each other, resulting in continued
hail and damaging wind potential but limiting overall tornado
potential.
Regardless, severe storms are possible with some potential for
another higher-end episode of severe weather. The other concern
will be flash flooding with multiple rounds of thunderstorm again
possible over what is likely to be saturated ground conditions
with elevated stream levels after tonight's storms. WPC has the
area in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall and for good
reason, so have continued the flash flood watch through Friday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

VFR conditions will occur outside of convection through 07Z. MVFR
cigs are expected after 07Z and prior to that with convection.
MVFR and ifr vsbys are expected with storms. Showers along with
isolated tsra are expected at TOP and FOE from 07Z-12Z then again
after 18Z Friday. Also some ifr cigs may move into the MHK area
after 19Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
226 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-191930-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
226 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon through tonight.
These thunderstorms will be capable of tornadoes, very large hail,
damaging winds and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional thunderstorms are likely on Friday afternoon. While
some details depend on the exact evolution of storms tonight,
there is increasing confidence that multiple rounds of
thunderstorms can be expected Friday afternoon into Friday night.
These storms will likely be capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon through
tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
609 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             3 W VOLLAND             38.94N 96.45W
05/18/2017  E1.75 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
612 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             ALTA VISTA              38.87N 96.49W
05/18/2017  E1.75 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
613 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             ABILENE                 38.92N 97.21W
05/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKELS TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
625 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     TSTM WND GST     ENTERPRISE              38.90N 97.12W
05/18/2017  E60 MPH          DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS OF AT LEAST ONE GUST TO 60 MPH.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             ALTA VISTA              38.86N 96.49W
05/18/2017  E2.00 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             4 ESE PAXICO            39.06N 96.10W
05/18/2017  E1.50 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP