Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Topeka, KS

247 
WWUS53 KTOP 212227
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
527 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

KSC045-059-087-139-177-212300-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-171021T2300Z/
Franklin-Jefferson-Shawnee-Douglas-Osage-
527 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...EASTERN SHAWNEE...
DOUGLAS AND NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

At 527 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Perry Lake to near Perry to 3 miles northeast of
Richland to 4 miles southwest of Overbrook, moving northeast at 55
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Topeka, Lawrence, Baldwin City, Carbondale, Tecumseh, Eudora,
Richland, Wellsville, Overbrook, Centropolis, Perry, Scranton,
Lecompton, Clinton, Lone Star, Pleasant Grove, Vinland, Williamstown,
Pomona Lake and Grantville.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 179 and 205.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3871 9507 3863 9576 3914 9564 3917 9518
      3913 9518 3913 9519 3897 9519 3896 9517
      3898 9516 3897 9513 3897 9511 3895 9509
      3896 9508 3898 9508 3899 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 217DEG 47KT 3915 9545 3906 9544 3892 9548 3873
9561

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Baerg

575 
WWUS53 KTOP 212233
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
533 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

KSC045-059-087-139-177-212300-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-171021T2300Z/
Franklin-Jefferson-Shawnee-Douglas-Osage-
533 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...
DOUGLAS AND NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

At 533 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles northeast of Perry Lake to 3 miles north of
Perry to 4 miles north of Clinton Lake to Overbrook, moving northeast
at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Lawrence, Baldwin City, Carbondale, Tecumseh, Eudora, Richland,
Wellsville, Overbrook, Centropolis, Perry, Lecompton, Clinton, Lone
Star, Pleasant Grove, Vinland, Williamstown, Pomona Lake, Grantville,
Clinton Lake and Globe.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 183 and 205.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3871 9507 3863 9576 3915 9556 3917 9518
      3913 9518 3913 9519 3897 9519 3896 9517
      3898 9516 3897 9513 3897 9511 3895 9509
      3896 9508 3898 9508 3899 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 217DEG 47KT 3921 9539 3912 9538 3898 9542 3879
9555

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Baerg

019 
WWUS53 KTOP 212251
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
551 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

KSC045-059-087-139-177-212300-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-171021T2300Z/
Franklin-Jefferson-Shawnee-Douglas-Osage-
551 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...
DOUGLAS AND NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

At 551 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles north of Williamstown to 3 miles southeast of
Lecompton to near Lone Star to 4 miles northeast of Pomona Lake,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Lawrence, Baldwin City, Carbondale, Tecumseh, Eudora, Richland,
Wellsville, Overbrook, Centropolis, Perry, Lecompton, Clinton, Lone
Star, Pleasant Grove, Vinland, Williamstown, Pomona Lake, Grantville,
Clinton Lake and Globe.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 183 and 205.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3871 9507 3863 9576 3915 9556 3917 9518
      3913 9518 3913 9519 3897 9519 3896 9517
      3898 9516 3897 9513 3897 9511 3895 9509
      3896 9508 3898 9508 3899 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 250DEG 16KT 3911 9535 3902 9534 3888 9538 3869
9551

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Baerg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
159 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Thunderstorms should develop in the 2:30-4:00 PM timeframe across
parts of northeast KS, along a cold front and pre-frontal confluence
axis -- within a corridor centered from Seneca toward Council Grove.
Appreciable capping accompanying an elevated mixed layer should
initially yield somewhat separated updrafts, especially given at
least some component of boundary-relative storm motion directed
toward the moderately buoyant pre-frontal air mass. Effective shear
around 35-40 kt will support transient supercell modes, with a
tendency for splitting storms and increasing storm interactions to
support upscale growth to broken quasi-linear convective segments in
proximity to the front. Boundary-layer dewpoints of 62-64F ahead of
the front are surmounted by 7.5-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates
accompanying the elevated mixed layer, with resultant convective
inflow characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This thermodynamic
profile will support vigorous updraft accelerations with large hail
and damaging winds expected, and wind-driven hail will be possible
as convection congeals. Surface winds immediately ahead of the front
have veered to some extent -- partly in association with diurnal
mixing. However, with the TWX VAD wind profile indicating 30-40 kt
of flow in the 2-5-kft layer above ground, low-level shear should be
adequate for some tornado risk with line-embedded meso-vortices and
any sustained supercell structures. The front should clear the
forecast area by 9 PM with a few lingering showers in its wake
tonight, and winds becoming northwesterly in its wake with cooler
temperatures anticipated into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

The main headlines for the extended period consist of more quiet and
drier weather for much of the week. The next storm system by weeks
end looks to bring much cooler temperatures and the possibility of
wintry precipitation.

The upper level trough responsible for today's thunderstorm activity
will continue its trek eastward, away from the CWA. Surface ridge
will push across the central and northern Plains Sunday night and
Monday. A secondary upper level trough will traverse the northern
Plains on Tuesday, placing the central Plains in northwesterly mid
and upper level flow. An area of high pressure along the central
Rockies, coupled with a surface cyclone in the Ohio Valley will
yield a strong pressure gradient across the area Monday and Tuesday.
Sustained northerly winds are expected to remain near 20 mph, with
gusts approaching 30 mph. A third upper level trough will progress
southward near the end of the work. In conjunction with the upper
trough, a strong cold front looks to bypass the area, ushering in
much colder air for Friday. High temperatures Friday and Saturday
look only reach the low 50s. Exact track of the associated surface
cyclone will play a big role in QPF amounts during the weekend. At
this point in time, light precipitation associated with the TROWAL
could impact northeast Kansas. With temperatures reach the low to
middle 30s Friday night and Saturday, the potential for a winter
precipitation exists.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A cold front will move across the region later this afternoon
into the evening. Thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail, and
restricted visibilities/ceilings will be possible with this
activity. TOP and FOE will be the most likely TAF sites impacted
by this activity, in the 21Z-23Z timeframe. Ahead of the front,
gusty southerly to southwesterly winds are expected, with winds
becoming westerly to northwesterly following the frontal passage.
Ceilings should rise behind the front with decreasing cloud
coverage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cohen
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...Cohen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
206 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-221915-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
206 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue developing across
northeast and east central Kansas this afternoon. The main threat
from the storms will be damaging winds, large hail and frequent
lightning. A few tornadoes may also be possible with these storms.
The storms are expected to exit the Topeka and Emporia areas by 7
pm and the Lawrence and Ottawa areas after 9 pm. In addition,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of east central
Kansas. Isolated rainfall amounts of up to 3 inches will be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

KSZ023-024-038-039-212030-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Pottawatomie-Jackson-
259 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE...CENTRAL
WABAUNSEE...SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 259 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles northwest of Maple Hill to 6 miles east
of Alta Vista. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rossville, Alma, Eskridge, St. Marys, Maple Hill, McFarland, Paxico,
Delia, Willard, Potawatomi Reservation and Keene.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 331 and 347.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3879 9605 3881 9639 3883 9639 3883 9643
      3937 9599 3940 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 231DEG 29KT 3912 9610 3884 9638

Baerg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
326 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

KSZ037-038-054-212100-
Wabaunsee-Lyon-Morris-
326 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS...SOUTH
CENTRAL WABAUNSEE AND NORTHWESTERN LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 325 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Strong City, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Council Grove, Allen, Bushong, Dunlap and Council Grove Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3852 9635 3852 9668 3890 9632 3872 9606
      3851 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 221DEG 38KT 3851 9655

Baerg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
354 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

KSZ037-054-212130-
Lyon-Morris-
354 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS AND NORTHERN
LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 354 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cottonwood Falls, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Americus, Allen, Bushong and Dunlap.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 136 and 143.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3840 9635 3852 9635 3852 9651 3873 9631
      3858 9602 3841 9634
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 216DEG 43KT 3837 9649

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
442 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

KSZ024-026-039-212215-
Shawnee-Jefferson-Jackson-
442 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...SHAWNEE
AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 442 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dover, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Tecumseh, Dover, Silver Lake, Auburn, Meriden, Hoyt, Pauline
and Grantville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 348 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 166 and 184.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3887 9579 3887 9595 3902 9595 3932 9568
      3914 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 222DEG 40KT 3892 9592

Baerg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
448 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

KSZ039-055-212215-
Shawnee-Osage-
448 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE AND
NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 448 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Harveyville, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Topeka, Carbondale, Tecumseh, Burlingame, Scranton,
Pauline and Berryton.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 155 and 166, and
between mile markers 183 and 188.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3868 9591 3871 9595 3888 9595 3888 9581
      3906 9557 3907 9555 3907 9551 3905 9550
      3891 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 227DEG 43KT 3880 9593

Baerg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
455 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

KSZ024-026-212230-
Jefferson-Jackson-
455 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 454 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Denison to 4 miles southeast of Hoyt.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Valley Falls, Meriden, Nortonville, Mayetta and Denison.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3918 9559 3921 9559 3922 9563 3933 9575
      3952 9557 3942 9557 3942 9518 3941 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 220DEG 33KT 3937 9565 3920 9566

Baerg