Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Topeka, KS

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WWUS53 KTOP 170019
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
719 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

KSC041-170100-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-170917T0100Z/
Dickinson-
719 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTY...

At 719 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Carlton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Hope and Carlton. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9737 3885 9713 3868 9699 3861 9717
      3861 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 247DEG 25KT 3859 9736 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
727 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

KSC041-170100-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-170917T0100Z/
Dickinson-
727 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTY...

At 727 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Carlton, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Hope and Carlton. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9737 3868 9699 3861 9717 3861 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 248DEG 19KT 3859 9734 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
744 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

KSC041-170100-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-170917T0100Z/
Dickinson-
744 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DICKINSON COUNTY...

At 744 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Carlton, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of south
central Dickinson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9722 3868 9699 3861 9717 3861 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 241DEG 11KT 3858 9733 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
757 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

KSC041-170105-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-170917T0100Z/
Dickinson-
757 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DICKINSON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However the 
thunderstorm is expected to remain just south of the Dickinson 
county line as it moves almost due east and gusty winds are still 
possible. 

LAT...LON 3868 9722 3868 9699 3861 9717 3861 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 235DEG 19KT 3861 9728 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
627 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

As of 19z Saturday afternoon, a H5 trough was positioned from the
northern Rockies into the central High Plains. At the surface, a
center of low pressure resided across the OK/TX panhandle region. A
cold front extended northeastward from the low pressure through
north central KS. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms in eastern KS
are being aided by modest isentropic upglide near 310K. A capping
inversion near H8 has precluded thunderstorm development and for
that matter a deep Cu field along the aforementioned cold front. At
this point, sfc based convection appears unlikely through the
afternoon and evening hours along the cold front. Mostly sunny skies
across the southern half of KS has yielded 3000 J/KG of sfc based
cape with little/if any . Sfc based storms have
developed across southern Coffey, southward to the OK border.
Steering flow is oriented ENE, which should keep the bulk of
activity south of the CWA for the time being. Later this evening,
elevated thunderstorms aided by a 30kt LLJ and weak perturbations
within the cyclonic flow are expected to develop between 00-03z this
evening along the front. Steep mid level lapse rates will yield
MUcape near 2000 J/KG with effective shear near 25-30kts. RAP/HRRR
and CAM guidance all suggest this development during the 00-03z
timeframe. Transitioning into the overnight, activity should push
southeastward across the CWA as the front sags into southern KS. A
secondary batch of thunderstorms are possible along the H85 boundary
across far northeast KS/northern MO overnight. Steering flow
associated with these storms would be easterly; quickly moving any
activity out of the area by daybreak.

As for Sunday, the cold front will become stalled in southeast KS.
With southwesterly mid level flow remaining in place. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as weak embedded
perturbations move across the area. MUcape is expected to remain less
than 1000 J/KG. Therefore, the threat for severe storms on Sunday
appears low ATTM. North of the front, much cooler temperatures are
in store with highs Sunday afternoon reaching the middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Late weekend and early work week periods continue to look the
wettest of the long term. Warm air advection is rather deep Sunday
night with southern upper level jet streak moving into Oklahoma and
a mid-level wave moving ENE into the central Plains from Colorado
all contributing to ascent. With MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg could
see a few stronger storms though effective shear is not
impressive. The wave exits during the morning with drier air
moving in aloft. Low-levels remain moist as winds become
southerly, and if enough clearing can occur, could see MLCAPE
reach over 2000 J/kg with around 30 kts of deep-layer shear for a
severe weather setup. Forcing is subtle though models continue to
suggest fast lee cyclogenesis giving rise to minor surface
convergence, but subsidence behind the wave will need to be
overcome. Have kept a chance PoP for the Monday afternoon on into
early Tuesday morning as isentropic upglide persists and could
keep any renewed convection going.

Midday Tuesday to midday Wednesday should be dry with southerly
winds increasing Tuesday for a warm day. Lead wave moving out of the
western CONUS upper trough drags a cold front through the area
Wednesday though the WAA from previous periods looks to bring a
decent cap in place. Will keep a small PoP in the far southeast
where moisture is better. Drier and slightly cooler takes hold
Wednesday afternoon and night, thought the deepening western
trough brings breezy south winds and warmer air in for the later
periods, however models are overall slower with this trough
coming east. Precip chances generally increase Thursday night into
the weekend though a continued slower trend seems very plausible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Scattered showers and storms will persist through tonight, though
confidence in timing and location of convection is low and thus
only mentioned VCTS at the TAF sites for the 00Z package. A cold
front currently bisecting NE Kansas will continue to slide SE,
with southerly winds switching to the north overnight. MVFR to
possibly IFR stratus will fill in behind the front late tonight
and into the day on Sunday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Skow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
344 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-172045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
344 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible for the entire area through the night.
A few of the storms this afternoon and this evening could be
severe and produce large hail and damaging straight line winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep