Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Topeka, KS

511 
WWUS53 KTOP 162142
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
442 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

KSC003-162200-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0167.000000T0000Z-170916T2200Z/
Anderson-
442 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY...

At 442 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Blue Mound,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Kincaid. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for damaging winds. People outside should move 
to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9537 3817 9508 3804 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 235DEG 30KT 3808 9508 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

339 
WWUS53 KTOP 162153
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
453 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

KSC003-162203-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0167.000000T0000Z-170916T2200Z/
Anderson-
453 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3804 9537 3817 9508 3804 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 244DEG 32KT 3812 9497 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
350 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

As of 19z Saturday afternoon, a H5 trough was positioned from the
northern Rockies into the central High Plains. At the surface, a
center of low pressure resided across the OK/TX panhandle region. A
cold front extended northeastward from the low pressure through
north central KS. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms in eastern KS
are being aided by modest isentropic upglide near 310K. A capping
inversion near H8 has precluded thunderstorm development and for
that matter a deep Cu field along the aforementioned cold front. At
this point, sfc based convection appears unlikely through the
afternoon and evening hours along the cold front. Mostly sunny skies
across the southern half of KS has yielded 3000 J/KG of sfc based
cape with little/if any . Sfc based storms have
developed across southern Coffey, southward to the OK border.
Steering flow is oriented ENE, which should keep the bulk of
activity south of the CWA for the time being. Later this evening,
elevated thunderstorms aided by a 30kt LLJ and weak perturbations
within the cyclonic flow are expected to develop between 00-03z this
evening along the front. Steep mid level lapse rates will yield
MUcape near 2000 J/KG with effective shear near 25-30kts. RAP/HRRR
and CAM guidance all suggest this development during the 00-03z
timeframe. Transitioning into the overnight, activity should push
southeastward across the CWA as the front sags into southern KS. A
secondary batch of thunderstorms are possible along the H85 boundary
across far northeast KS/northern MO overnight. Steering flow
associated with these storms would be easterly; quickly moving any
activity out of the area by daybreak.

As for Sunday, the cold front will become stalled in southeast KS.
With southwesterly mid level flow remaining in place. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as weak embedded
perturbations move across the area. MUcape is expected to remain less
than 1000 J/KG. Therefore, the threat for severe storms on Sunday
appears low ATTM. North of the front, much cooler temperatures are
in store with highs Sunday afternoon reaching the middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Late weekend and early work week periods continue to look the
wettest of the long term. Warm air advection is rather deep Sunday
night with southern upper level jet streak moving into Oklahoma and
a mid-level wave moving ENE into the central Plains from Colorado
all contributing to ascent. With MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg could
see a few stronger storms though effective shear is not
impressive. The wave exits during the morning with drier air
moving in aloft. Low-levels remain moist as winds become
southerly, and if enough clearing can occur, could see MLCAPE
reach over 2000 J/kg with around 30 kts of deep-layer shear for a
severe weather setup. Forcing is subtle though models continue to
suggest fast lee cyclogenesis giving rise to minor surface
convergence, but subsidence behind the wave will need to be
overcome. Have kept a chance PoP for the Monday afternoon on into
early Tuesday morning as isentropic upglide persists and could
keep any renewed convection going.

Midday Tuesday to midday Wednesday should be dry with southerly
winds increasing Tuesday for a warm day. Lead wave moving out of the
western CONUS upper trough drags a cold front through the area
Wednesday though the WAA from previous periods looks to bring a
decent cap in place. Will keep a small PoP in the far southeast
where moisture is better. Drier and slightly cooler takes hold
Wednesday afternoon and night, thought the deepening western
trough brings breezy south winds and warmer air in for the later
periods, however models are overall slower with this trough
coming east. Precip chances generally increase Thursday night into
the weekend though a continued slower trend seems very plausible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue in the area through the afternoon. More widespread
showers and storms are expected after 00-03z this evening. The
strongest storms may produce brief VSBY reduction. A cold front
will shift winds to the north this evening. MVFR stratus is also
expected post-frontal. The stratus may begin to scatter near the
end of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Baerg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
344 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-172045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
344 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible for the entire area through the night.
A few of the storms this afternoon and this evening could be
severe and produce large hail and damaging straight line winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep