Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
300 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

This afternoon, a front can be seen bisecting the CWA generally from
east to west.  This front is not very strong in terms of temperature
differences, but moist dewpoints north of the boundary are clear
along with a shifting of winds.  Heat indicies today have once again
risen into the 100-111 degree range today and the Excessive Heat
Warning will continue until 8pm this evening.  Some hi-res guidance
begins to develop storms along the boundary due to convergence and
diurnal heating late this afternoon, with the NAM/GFS bringing in
precipitation mainly during the evening.  With the strong heating,
expect any cap to erode and any storms that do develop this
afternoon would most likely be unorganized in nature due to the
relatively weak effective shear of only 25-30 knots.  With a highly
unstable atmosphere and soundings indicating a deep, dry adiabatic
profile near the surface, strong downburst winds will be the main
hazard with any storms this afternoon.  Heavy rainfall will be
another concern with any storms and localized flooding is a
possibility.  A mid-level shortwave skims northeast Kansas overnight
and more showers and thunderstorms may form in western and central
Kansas and move eastward into the area keeping precipitation chances
for the entire area until the early morning.

By tomorrow morning, the front will be located just south of the
area expected to continue south into southern Kansas by the
afternoon.  Only slight chances for precipitation continue into the
afternoon in east central Kansas tomorrow.  Even with this frontal
passage, we will only see mild reprieve in hot temperatures with
highs expected to reach into the into the low and mid 90s.  With
only light winds and clearing skies, heat indicies Sunday will be in
the upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

By Sunday night into Monday, a broad mid-level ridge will be
stretched out across much of the southern two-thirds of the CONUS,
with the CWA wedged between surface high pressure to the northeast
and surface low pressure to the northwest.  With this surface
pattern in place, winds will shift to the southeast and then south
Monday into Tuesday, resulting in a moderating trend in
temperatures. This southerly flow will also allow for some increased
moisture advection into the region through mid-week, so expect a
return of hot and humid conditions.  Afternoon high temperatures
will likely reach into the mid/upper 90s for much of the CWA Monday
through Thursday, with dewpoint temperatures rising into the upper
60s/low 70s.  With these hot and humid conditions in place, heat
index values will likely rise into the 100 to 105 degree range for
much of the CWA Tuesday through Thursday, with the highest heat
indices expected on Wednesday.  As a result, a Heat Advisory may
need to be considered for mid-week.

With the broad mid-level ridge in place early this week, conditions
will stay dry through early AM Tuesday before a couple of very weak
embedded waves bring the potential for a few isolated to scattered
storms on Tuesday.  Models show a mid-level trough skimming across
the Dakotas and into the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday,
which ultimately will help push a surface cold front eastward across
KS.  This boundary looks to extend into north central to far
northeast KS on Wednesday before gradually sliding southeastward
across the CWA on Thursday.  As a result, there is a potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening into Thursday,
with additional post-frontal thunderstorms possible Thursday night
through Friday.  This frontal passage will provide a bit of relief
to the heat with high temperatures Friday and Saturday dropping into
the upper 80s to low 90s.  With surface high pressure advancing into
the region behind the front, expect dry conditions for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

VFR will prevail through the period, although TS development is
expected after 23Z near terminals which could lead to brief
restricted conditions depending where storms develop.  Have included
the best timing for storms over terminals through use of the TEMPO
group.  Some hi-res guidance have been developing TS activity
predominantly south of terminals which is also a possibility.
Precipitation is expected to move south of all terminals between 07-
08Z with light and variable winds continuing through the end of the
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Heller

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
311 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-232015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
311 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Heat indices will range from 105 to 113 through the remainder of
this afternoon. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until
8 PM CDT.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from mid
afternoon through the overnight hours tonight. The primary hazard will
be strong wind gusts up to 60 mph. Also, locally heavy rainfall
may potentially cause some minor flooding concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
453 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

KSZ022-023-222215-
Pottawatomie-Riley-
453 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL RILEY AND
NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Olsburg, moving southwest at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blaine, Olsburg and Randolph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near Tuttle Creek Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9649 3952 9639 3931 9652 3942 9677
      3957 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 030DEG 16KT 3951 9655

BD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
502 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

KSZ035-222215-
Dickinson-
502 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 501 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moonlight, moving west at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chapman and Moonlight.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 281 and 287.

LAT...LON 3913 9723 3913 9698 3895 9700 3896 9725
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 094DEG 9KT 3905 9709

BD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
522 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

KSZ010-023-222245-
Pottawatomie-Marshall-
522 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN POTTAWATOMIE AND
SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 522 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles south of Havensville to near Olsburg.
Movement was southeast at 70 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Westmoreland, Blaine and Wheaton.

LAT...LON 3957 9624 3957 9622 3939 9614 3938 9657
      3951 9664 3952 9664 3954 9663 3953 9662
      3954 9660 3956 9658 3957 9668 3960 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 297DEG 59KT 3947 9610 3947 9659

BD