Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Topeka, KS

336 
WWUS53 KTOP 122313
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
613 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

KSC013-122323-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-170712T2315Z/
Brown-
613 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 615 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3968 9534 3969 9547 3986 9547 3993 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 288DEG 11KT 3976 9521 

$$

Sanders

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
312 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Another hot afternoon today with dewpoints in the mid 70s in very
eastern Kansas contributing to heat indices up to 107 degrees across
the area.  A boundary can be seen very near the Kansas/Nebraska
boarder with cloud cover proving to be a good distinction between the
airmasses as scattered showers remain in Nebraska.  For tonight,
this boundary looks to slowly slide south and showers and
thunderstorms are expected to fire up along the boundary later this
afternoon.  The main area for this convection will be in north
central Kansas and areas near the KS/NE boarder this evening and
into the overnight hours.  Deep later shear looks pretty weak across
northern Kansas, with better parameters north of the area.  There is
a small chance a storm may initially become strong later this
afternoon along the front, but overall do not expect severe storms.
The bulk of precipitation will stay north of Kansas this evening and
overnight with the boundary finally pushing further south across the
area by early afternoon.  South of this boundary, temperatures will
once again be hot reaching into the upper 90s with heat indicies
once again in the lower 100s.  As far as precipitation tomorrow,
storms may once again fire up along the boundary in the late
afternoon near the I-70 corridor.  Shear values look more favorable
this afternoon with the NAM producing 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-
35 knots.  Some storms may become strong to severe with strong winds
being the main threat in the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Scattered showers and storms continue into the evening hours
Thursday while the sfc frontal boundary slowly sags southward,
centering over the southern CWA counties by Friday morning.
Overnight convection is not expected to be severe, however could
see a few storms capable of small hail and strong winds in the
early evening period. Activity is expected to slowly linger
southeast through Friday morning, resulting in areas receiving
from four tenths to an inch and a half along and south of
Interstate 70. Cloud cover and lingering showers should hold highs
back into the 80s during the day before skies clear by Saturday.
Isentropic lift along the h85 front Friday evening may generate
additional scattered convection south of Interstate 70, however
the upper forcing is pretty weak being on the eastern edge of the
upper ridge overspreading the area. For this reason, I kept slight
chances on Friday and Saturday evenings respectively. After
Sunday, upper ridge overtakes the region, bringing the heat wave
back for next week. Highs are currently forecast in the middle
90s, however would not be surprised to see upper 90s across the
CWA, translating heat indices above 100 degrees once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Another night of
LLWS is expected with these conditions ending at 12Z for all
sites. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain north of
terminals at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Heller

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
316 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-132030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
316 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire outlook area
through 8 PM this evening. Heat indices are expected to range
from 103 to 110 degrees this afternoon. There is a slight chance
for a few isolated storms across far north central Kansas during
the late afternoon and evening hours, however the threat for
severe weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A frontal boundary drops southward into the outlook area Thursday
afternoon and evening. A few severe storms may develop along the
boundary, capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts.
Locally heavy rainfall may occur Thursday evening into Friday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
532 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

KSZ012-122245-
Brown-
532 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

At 532 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Robinson, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Robinson.

LAT...LON 3972 9534 3973 9547 3990 9543 3994 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 269DEG 12KT 3982 9534

Sanders