Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Topeka, KS

323 
WWUS53 KTOP 180124
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
824 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

KSC127-180134-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-170618T0130Z/
Morris-
824 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MORRIS COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 830 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail,
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
central and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3852 9687 3855 9693 3871 9693 3865 9635
      3853 9635 3852 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 293DEG 30KT 3849 9649 

$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
647 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Early this afternoon, a frontal boundary was oriented southwest to
northeast across the CWA bisecting roughly from Ottawa to northern
Jackson county.  This frontal boundary will be the focus for storms
this afternoon and evening as a mid level shortwave sweeps across
the Central Plains.  While a cap remains in place most of the
afternoon, models do show an erosion late afternoon which would
allow for quick storm initation and intensification.  A highly
unstable atmosphere is in place with CAPE over 4000 J/kg and shear
values between 35-45 knots.  This would allow for storms to quickly
turn severe with supercells possible during initial development.
With steep lapse rates above the current EML, large hail and
damaging winds would be the main hazard with any storms, although an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.  Some hi-res guidance
suggests storms will develop in northern MO and build into
northeastern KS this afternoon.  Initial singular cells may begin to
form clusters as time goes on with some bowing segments within these
clusters.  If this occurred, the wind risk would be greatly
enhanced.  Location wise, the best chances for severe convection
looks to be along and south of I-70.  Storms will advance southeast
through the night, although post frontal showers and storms will be
possible through the early morning hours.  After tonight, dry
conditions can be expected with surface high pressure moving
directly over Kansas by tomorrow afternoon.

Temperatures this afternoon have been steadily rising into the low
90s, with mid to upper 90s expected as highs.  With dewpoints in the
70s, heat indicies look on track to reach between 100-110 degrees
across the entire area, with the hottest indices in east central
Kansas.  A heat advisory will remain in effect until 7PM this
evening for portions of the area. With the frontal passage in store
this evening, cooler temperatures can be expected tomorrow
along with less oppressive dewpoints.  Highs tomorrow look to top
out in the low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Sunday night through Tuesday, an upper level trough will amplify
across the eastern conus and keep the central plains in
northwesterly flow aloft. Expect drier and cooler weather with
Highs on Monday in the mid 80s and highs on Tuesday in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

Tuesday night through Saturday, the mid and upper level flow will
become more zonal and a lee surface trough will deepen across the
high plains. Southerly low-level winds will advect deeper
moisture northward. Minor shortwave troughs embedded within the
zonal mid level flow may provide enough ascent for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms through the period. Highs will warm into
the mid to upper 90s Wednesday through Friday, and heat indices
once again may reach advisory criteria. A slightly stronger upper
trough will move across the northern and central plains on Friday
and will cause a surface cold front to push southward across the
CWA Friday night. Saturday may be cooler and drier if the front
can push southward into OK before becoming stationary. Highs on
Saturday may only reach the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Currently, the near term for the 00Z TAFs are in the frontal zone
for the near term. Complicating factors with storm initiation are
becoming more clear. Bottom line is as further development takes
place, amendments will be likely. For now have left VCTS for
storms as the best placements may just be south of the terminals.
Do see another round of showers and storms coming into the
terminals overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ022>024-026-
035>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
356 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-182100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
356 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Another round of thunderstorms are forecast this evening across
eastern Kansas. The storms should develop after 4 pm and exit the
area by 10 pm. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Local flash
flooding is possible if the storms traverse over the same areas
that received heavy rain Friday night.

A heat advisory remains in effect until 7 pm for areas along and
south of a line from Abilene to Manhattan to Holton. Heat indices
are forecast to range between 105 and 110 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
646 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             7 NNE WOODBINE          38.88N 96.90W
06/17/2017  E1.75 INCH       GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
655 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             6 NW WOODBINE           38.86N 97.02W
06/17/2017  E1.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
658 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             WHITE CITY              38.80N 96.73W
06/17/2017  E1.75 INCH       MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
729 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             6 NNW WHITE CITY        38.87N 96.79W
06/17/2017  E1.75 INCH       MORRIS             KS   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
733 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             6 N TOPEKA              39.14N 95.69W
06/17/2017  E1.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
742 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     HAIL             6 N TOPEKA              39.13N 95.67W
06/17/2017  E1.25 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&