Frost Advisory 4, NWS Topeka, KS

265 
WWUS73 KTOP 110232
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
932 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

KSZ008-009-020-021-034-111500-
/O.CON.KTOP.FZ.W.0001.171011T0500Z-171011T1500Z/
Republic-Washington-Cloud-Clay-Ottawa-
Including the cities of Belleville, Washington, Hanover, Clifton,
Linn, Greenleaf, Concordia, Clay Center, Minneapolis, 
and Bennington
932 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...Lows Wednesday morning are expected to be 
  between 30 and 33 degrees. 

* IMPACTS...Any tender vegetation could be killed.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. Any vegetables still growing should be harvested
and outdoor plants brought inside or covered up.

&&

$$

KSZ010-022-035>037-111500-
/O.CON.KTOP.FR.Y.0001.171011T0500Z-171011T1500Z/
Marshall-Riley-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Including the cities of Marysville, Blue Rapids, Frankfort, 
Manhattan, Abilene, Herington, Junction City, and Council Grove
932 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...Lows Wednesday morning are expected to be 
  between 33 and 36 degrees. 

* IMPACTS...Any tender vegetation could be damaged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected. Any
vegetables still growing should be harvested and outdoor plants
brought inside or covered up.

&&

$$

308 
WWUS73 KTOP 111401
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
901 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

KSZ008-009-020-021-034-111515-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171011T1500Z/
Republic-Washington-Cloud-Clay-Ottawa-
Including the cities of Belleville, Washington, Hanover, Clifton,
Linn, Greenleaf, Concordia, Clay Center, Minneapolis, 
and Bennington
901 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Topeka has cancelled the Freeze
Warning. Temperatures have warmed above freezing and will continue
to warm up into the 60s this afternoon.

$$

KSZ010-022-035>037-111515-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FR.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-171011T1500Z/
Marshall-Riley-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Including the cities of Marysville, Blue Rapids, Frankfort, 
Manhattan, Abilene, Herington, Junction City, and Council Grove
901 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Topeka has cancelled the Frost
Advisory. Temperatures will continue to warm into the 60s this
afternoon.

$$

Wolters

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Mid level low pressure is currently located over southwest KS and is
forecasted to lift northeastward throughout the day. Ahead of the
low pressure system isentropic ascent over northeast KS is
supporting isolated to scattered showers. A mid level dry punch has
also spread over the area, which is providing steeper lapse rates
above the moist layer in the lower levels. Instability seems to be
on the order of a few hundred j/kg so only expecting minimal
lighting. The chance for isolated to scattered showers will continue
through the morning hours with the better coverage remaining around
the NE/KS state line. Later this morning the mid level low pressure
will lift over the forecast area. Water vapor shows that the low is
associated with an area of deeper moisture. This along with mid
level frontogenesis and positive vorticity advection should support
another round of showers later this morning through the afternoon.
The exact coverage of this precipitation is somewhat unknown at this
point given subtle model differences. Brief periods of moderate
rainfall rates could be possible during this time frame as depicted
by some of the high res guidance showing QPF upwards of half an inch
in isolated spots.

The diurnal temperature swing will be muted today given the
reinforcement of cool air north of the front, widespread cloud
cover, and scattered precipitation expected. Therefore highs will
only reach the mid to upper 40s. The surface low pressure will drift
eastward today through MO so the pressure gradient should gradually
relax, but wind gusts will generally remain around 20 to 30 mph
until this evening when they decrease. This evening the mid level
low pressure lifts over the mid MS valley allowing surface high
pressure to build into the area. This surface ridge is forecasted to
set up through central KS tonight, which will support clear skies
and calm winds. The only exception will be portions of northeast KS
where some low level moisture remains in place keeping low stratus
over those locations. If this is correct the lows may need to be
adjusted higher. Across central KS the lows tonight may drop into
the mid 30s while upper 30s elsewhere. Therefore there is a chance
for frost especially in the sheltered valleys. Will let the day
shift fine tune the low temperatures as well as the cloud cover
location and timing in order to see if a frost advisory will be
needed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Wednesday through Friday, a broad upper level trough will develop
across the western conus with an amplified downstream ridge across
the eastern US. Expect southwesterly flow at mid levels to increase
across the central plains which will cause a lee surface trough to
amplify across the high plains. After a cool start Wednesday morning
light and variable winds will gradually become southeasterly with
highs in the mid 60s. As the southerly winds increase Thursday and
Friday expect WAA to help warm highs into the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday and lower to mid 80s by Friday.

Friday night through Saturday night, the upper trough across the
western US will move east across the plains. A surface cold front
will begin to slowly push southeast across the CWA late Friday
night and through the day on Saturday. There will be enough
residual gulf moisture return and ascent ahead of the approaching
H5 trough for periods of showers and a few thunderstorms late
Friday nigh through Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will range
from the mid 60s across north central KS, northwest of the
surface front, to the upper 70s in the warm sector across east
central KS.

Sunday through Tuesday, there may be a few post frontal showers
Sunday morning across east central KS but these should shift east of
the CWA as the upper level trough lifts northeast into the upper
midwest by Sunday afternoon. Skies Sunday afternoon should clear
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The upper level flow will
be from the west-northwest early next week with the stronger H5 jet
max located across the northern plains. At the surface a broad area
of high pressure will move southeast across the southern plains.
Expect dry conditions early next week with mostly clear skies. Highs
Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

With the upper low lifting northeast, forecast is mainly timing
the improvement to the MVFR CIGS. RAP and NAM solutions are
holding onto the low clouds across eastern KS through the night.
So the biggest change is to keep low clouds in for TOP and FOE
until Wed morning. Otherwise precip will come to an end as the
upper low passes with VFR conditions expected by the late morning
Wednesday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
327 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-110830-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
327 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Today across much of the
area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Frost may develop late Tonight and early Wednesday morning along
and west of a line from Emporia to Seneca.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep