Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Great Falls, MT

651 
WWUS55 KTFX 262318
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
518 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

MTC073-099-262327-
/O.CAN.KTFX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170626T2345Z/
Pondera MT-Teton MT-
518 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PONDERA AND
EASTERN TETON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area, therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4781 11133 4811 11132 4814 11040 4776 11042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 264DEG 39KT 4804 11109 

$$

MTC015-262345-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170626T2345Z/
Chouteau MT-
518 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CHOUTEAU COUNTY...

At 517 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles east of The
Knees, or 24 miles northwest of Fort Benton, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. Strong outflow 
         winds will likely occur well before the main storm hits.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Fort Benton, The Knees, Carter and Loma. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4781 11133 4811 11132 4814 11040 4776 11042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 264DEG 39KT 4804 11109 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MARTIN

083 
WWUS55 KTFX 262346
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
546 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

MTC015-262355-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170626T2345Z/
Chouteau MT-
546 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHOUTEAU COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.  However gusty 
winds of 50 to 55 mph are still possible with this thunderstorm as 
it moves through Chouteau County.

LAT...LON 4781 11133 4811 11132 4814 11040 4776 11042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 270DEG 42KT 4804 11060 

$$

MARTIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
231 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Upper level high pressure ridge over the region will bring hot
conditions to Montana today. An upper level disturbance may kick off
a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Any storm that develops will be
capable of strong, gusty winds. Later tonight, a surface cold front
will sweep across the state with a better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. The front will bring cooler temperatures with it on
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today through Wednesday...Latest satellite imagery shows a
convectively-induced wave moving into western Montana at this time
with a second, stronger s/w back to the west, moving onto the NRN
CA/OR coast. Still think this lead wave should provide enough lift
for isolated storms through this evening, especially along/east of
the I-15 corridor and latest radar imagery suggests this is
underway as of 225 pm. Gusty/damaging winds look to be the main
threat (ie. 45-65 mph). There may be a brief lull in t-storm
activity this evening in the wake of the first wave, but the
coverage of thunderstorms should increase again tonight
associated with the 2nd and stronger wave mentioned above. It
will likely remain unstable through the night, but a gradual
decrease in instability and a lack of better shear should limit
the threat for any severe weather overnight.

In the wake of tonight's s/w, a cold front will drop south out of
Canada. The models are struggling with how unstable it will get
ahead of this front and this may largely depend on how much precip
falls tonight (ie. more precip could lead to more stable
conditions and vice-versa). Regardless, the threat of showers and
storms should continue through Tuesday afternoon. Of note, the
greatest instability/shear looks to be across far SW MT and is
where confidence is higher regarding the development of a few
stronger storms capable of gusty winds and hail. This same area
looks to be the focus on Wednesday as well. The overall severe
threat Tuesday and Wednesday looks somewhat lower due to a lack
of better shear. With the flow turning more northwesterly,
temperatures will trend much cooler Tuesday and Wednesday compared
to today. MARTIN

Wednesday Night through Sunday...An unsettled, northerly flow aloft
develops Wednesday night and Thursday associated with a closed upper
level low drifting through AB/SK. A cold front trailing behind this
system will lower temperatures into the low- to mid-70s on Thursday.
This pattern brings chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms,
although model guidance continues to differ on the timing and
spatial extent of this activity.  The latest forecast guidance has
slowed the departure of the upper low, with chances for isolated
light rain showers continuing Thursday night into Friday. Model
consensus suggests weak ridging through the weekend, providing
generally fair weather with temperatures near 80F and isolated
showers or thunderstorms possible. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1800Z.

An upper level disturbance will bring isolated TSRA to part of the
forecast area this afternoon, especially along/east of I-15. These
storms will be capable of strong, gusty, and erratic wind gusts,
potentially in excess of 50kt. A cold front will then move through
overnight with a greater coverage of SHRA/TSRA. At this time, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail, but CIGS/VIS may briefly lower
with any SHRA/TSRA, especially overnight. MARTIN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for zone 113 with modest
confidence that there will be critical fire weather conditions
into early this evening, primarily Blaine County. Gusty southeast
winds ahead of a surface low pressure system will combine with
minimum RH values in the teens and increasingly dry fuels in
eastern portions of Fire Weather Zone 113. In addition, isolated
thunderstorms moving through the area this evening could lead to
gusty and erratic winds. CC/MPJ/Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  77  50  77 /  30  40  10  10
CTB  57  76  48  75 /  20  20  10  10
HLN  61  79  52  78 /  50  40  10  10
BZN  53  76  47  75 /  30  80  20  20
WEY  44  69  38  66 /  40  70  30  40
DLN  54  73  47  73 /  40  60  20  10
HVR  62  80  52  81 /  40  40  10  10
LWT  59  75  48  75 /  40  60  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening Hill and Blaine
Counties.

&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
342 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

MTZ013-044>046-262230-
Chouteau MT-Liberty MT-Eastern Pondera MT-Toole MT-
342 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PONDERA...SOUTHERN
LIBERTY...SOUTHEASTERN TOOLE...SOUTHWESTERN HILL AND NORTHWESTERN
CHOUTEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 341 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of The Knees, or 29 miles southwest of Chester, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
The Knees and Tiber Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4799 11128 4815 11150 4846 11104 4812 11063
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 238DEG 29KT 4813 11127

MARTIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
431 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

MTZ013-044>046-049-262315-
Chouteau MT-Liberty MT-Eastern Teton MT-Eastern Pondera MT-Toole MT-
431 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PONDERA...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY...SOUTHEASTERN TOOLE...EAST CENTRAL TETON AND
WEST CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

At 430 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brady, moving east at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations near the path of the storm include... Dutton, The Knees
and Collins.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4778 11181 4826 11182 4827 11127 4778 11125
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 251DEG 10KT 4805 11175

Brusda

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
433 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHOTEAU                 47.81N 112.18W
06/26/2017  M52 MPH          TETON              MT   AWOS

            52 MPH WIND GUST AT THE CHOTEAU AIRPORT.

&&

BRUSDA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
433 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

MTZ011-013-045-262315-
Chouteau MT-Liberty MT-Hill MT-
433 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY...
SOUTHWESTERN HILL AND NORTH CENTRAL CHOUTEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
MDT...

At 432 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 13 miles south of Inverness, or 15 miles southeast of
Chester, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storms.

Locations impacted include...
Chester, Joplin, Inverness, Box Elder, Hingham, Rudyard, Kenilworth
and Tiber Dam.

LAT...LON 4802 11088 4822 11099 4834 11121 4881 11075
      4825 10991
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 242DEG 25KT 4837 11071

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
434 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N LAKEVIEW            44.68N 111.83W
06/26/2017  M52 MPH          BEAVERHEAD         MT   MESONET

            52 MPH WIND GUST AT THE RED ROCK RAWS LOCATION. TIME OF
            EVENT IS ESTIMATED.

&&

BRUSDA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
437 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

MTZ051-262315-
Fergus MT-
437 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

At 435 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Lewistown, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations near the path of the storm include... Lewistown, Giltedge,
Danvers, Hilger and Glengarry.

LAT...LON 4701 10962 4723 10974 4739 10920 4714 10907
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 250DEG 18KT 4716 10959

Brusda