River Flood Warning 2, NWS Great Falls, MT

026 
WGUS85 KTFX 172354
FLSTFX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
554 PM MDT FRI MAR 17 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Montana...

  Clear Creek at Chinook affecting Blaine County

For the Clear Creek, including Chinook, no flooding is observed or 
forecast. The Flood Warning for the Clear Creek, including Chinook 
has been canceled.

However, very warm temperatures are expected again on Saturday,
which may cause the creek to rise once again. 

MTC005-180024-
/O.CAN.KTFX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170318T1800Z/
/CCMM8.2.SM.170317T0522Z.170317T1215Z.170317T1628Z.UU/
554 PM MDT FRI MAR 17 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Clear Creek at Chinook.
* At  5:30 PM Friday the stage was 4.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.5 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 10:28 AM Friday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 3.5 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.

&&

LAT...LON 4835 10950 4858 10944 4859 10938 4853 10935 4835 10940

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1051 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

UPDATED HYDROLOGY SECTION TO MENTION ADDITIONAL WATCHES

.UPDATE...

Hydrologic concerns aside (from snowmelt and potential ice jams),
quiet weather is on tap for the overnight period and extending
into Friday. With winds laying down through the evening and clear
skies, expect decent radiational cooling conditions especially
after midnight. Thus, we lowered minimum temperatures a few
degrees in many locations. Backing surface winds out of a
generally easterly direction along with increasing high cloud
cover from southwest to northeast through the day Friday will
result in highs in the 50s for most locations. Cassell

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450z.

West winds continue to taper off this evening with VFR at all TAF
locations. An approaching warm front moving into SW MT tomorrow
afternoon will cause winds to back to east to southeast during the
day Friday from south to north, with an increase in high cloud cover
and gradual decrease in ceiling heights through Friday afternoon and
into the evening. Isolated shower activity will be possible over SW
MT mountains Fri afternoon and evening ahead of the warm front.
Cassell

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

955 PM update - Have issued Flood Watches for Clear Creek (areal -
Blaine County) and for the Missouri River near Landusky (point).
River levels are above action stage at both locations, so will
continue to monitor them for possible exceedence of flood stage and
likely minor low-land flooding. Potential melting of ripe snowpack
in Beaverhead County is warranting a Flood Watch there as well,
while water over roads along and east of the Rocky Mountain Front
continues the Flood Advisories there.  Coulston

Locations in the eastern areas of our CWA have started to see some
stream rises to near action stage in the last 6 to 12 hours. These
include the Missouri River near Landusky and Clear Creek near
Chinook. For now, we expect snowmelt to diminish with expected
lows tonight well below freezing, but we will continue to monitor.
Cassell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 507 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017/

Tonight through Saturday...Cold front trailing behind a passing
Alberta Clipper has moved through most of the forecast area. Dry
air and subsidence has cleared skies across North-central MT.
Isolated showers linger mainly over the higher terrain of
Southwest MT. Strong post-frontal wind gusts of 35-45 mph
developed this afternoon as boundary layer mixing allowed downward
momentum transfer combined with enhanced isoallobaric winds
following the departing surface low. Winds and rain shower
activity will diminish overnight. Low temperatures fall below
freezing for most areas, which will slow mid-elevation snowmelt
runoff. Dry air with ridging aloft on Friday will produce a fair
weather day with mostly sunny skies. Southwesterly flow returns by
early Saturday.  Pacific moisture will once again produce
precipitation up to the Continental Divide. Downslope winds
associated with a deepening leeside trough will dry the air east
of the Continental Divide while helping to raise temperatures.
High temperatures near 70 degrees will test daily record highs for
some locations. PN

Saturday night through Thursday...A pattern shift is expected in
the long term, although this shift will mostly bring cooler more
normal temperatures with periods of rain and snow showers.
Saturday night into Sunday we see the push of a cold front across
the area starting our cooling trend. Precipitation still looks to
be confined to the southern half of our CWA, although can't rule
out scattered showers across the north under weakly unstable
northwest flow. Some breezy winds may also accompany this front
Sunday, mainly across the north. Frontal boundary stalls across
the south for Monday, brining more chances of snow to the south
while a ridge brings dry conditions across the north. A large
upper level trough then looks to push on the west coast through
mid week sending bits of energy and moisture our way through the
remainder of the long term. Tuesday's chances look to be scattered
and mainly across the south. Wednesday the trough splits and
tries to form a closed upper low across the UT/WY/CO area, while
also sending a shortwave northward across MT. This could bring
widespread rain and snow showers to our region, however, track and
timing will still need to be watched given things could still
change this far out. Thursday will see this low kick out into the
central plains and possibly form a deep Colorado low, while moist
sw flow remains across our region perhaps bringing more scattered
shower activity. So at this point it is hard to nail exact timing
of this somewhat active pattern, but it is important to note a
pattern shift is possible and chances for precip may return next
week. As mentioned we will see our temps cool during the long
term. Sundays highs dip into the 40s and 50s, and we remain in
this range throughout much of the forecast period. Morning lows
also look to get below freezing starting Monday morning, possibly
bringing some snow to lower elevations during our potential active
pattern. Anglin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  27  57  44  72 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  21  48  36  63 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  30  57  40  67 /  10   0  10  10
BZN  26  56  38  66 /  20   0  10  10
WEY  20  43  32  52 /  30  10  10  20
DLN  27  60  39  64 /   0   0  10  30
HVR  28  52  35  67 /  10   0  10  10
LWT  25  49  35  71 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening
Beaverhead.

Flood Watch through Sunday evening Blaine.

Flood Advisory for snowmelt runoff for Glacier, Pondera, Teton,
and Toole Counties until 1130 AM Friday.

Flood Watch until further notice Missouri River near Landusky.

&&

weather.gov/greatfalls