Alert archive / Montana / Red Flag Warnings in 2017
Red Flag Warning 20, NWS Great Falls, MT
NWS Great Falls, MT issued this red flag warning at Sep 8, 2017, 2:03 PM MDT for 18 counties in Montana. It took effect at Sep 9, 2017, 12:00 PM MDT. It was in force for 18 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 8, 2017, 2:03 PM MDT (20:03 UTC)
- In effect from
- Sep 9, 2017, 12:00 PM MDT
- Expired
- Sep 10, 2017, 6:00 AM MDT
- In force
- 18 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Great Falls, MT
Counties Blaine County, MT, Broadwater County, MT, Cascade County, MT, Chouteau County, MT, Fergus County, MT, Gallatin County, MT, Glacier County, MT, Hill County, MT, Jefferson County, MT, Judith Basin County, MT, Lewis and Clark County, MT, Liberty County, MT, Meagher County, MT, Phillips County, MT, Pondera County, MT, Powell County, MT, Teton County, MT, Toole County, MT
The radar
The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 24 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 5:29 AM MDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 69 | 15 Nne Lincoln, MT | MESONET STATION TT236, 15 NE LINCOLN. WEST END OF ALICE CREEK FIRE. ELEVATION 7820 FT MSL. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 37 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 4006 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 12 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 5 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 45 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
900
WWUS85 KTFX 082003
RFWTFX
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
203 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017
MTZ112-114-117-091115-
/O.UPG.KTFX.FW.A.0014.170909T1800Z-170910T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.FW.W.0020.170909T1800Z-170910T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.FW.A.0015.170910T1800Z-170911T0600Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
203 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY IN
EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY NIGHT...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY IN
EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from noon Saturday to midnight MDT
Saturday night. a Fire Weather Watch has also been issued. This
Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Sunday afternoon through
Sunday evening. the Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Strong Gusty Winds...and Increasing
Thunderstorm Activity will create erratic fire behavior and an
increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 112, 114 and 117.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin
Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
In North Central Montana, Glacier, Liberty, Pondera, Teton
Toole.
* WIND: West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 14 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Isolated to scattered with a mix of wet and dry
possible Saturday afternoon and evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. Gusty winds, low relative humidity, and warm
temperatures following increased lightning activity will create
high fire growth potential and an increased risk of new fire
starts.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MTZ118-091115-
/O.UPG.KTFX.FW.A.0014.170909T1800Z-170910T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.FW.W.0020.170909T1800Z-170910T0600Z/
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
203 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY IN EFFECT
FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY NIGHT...
The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from noon Saturday to midnight MDT
Saturday night. the Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Strong Gusty Winds...and Increasing
Thunderstorm Activity will create erratic fire behavior and an
increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zone 118.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
In Southwest Montana, Broadwater, Gallatin, Jefferson.
* WIND: Southwest 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 18 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Isolated to scattered with a mix of wet and dry
possible Saturday afternoon and evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. Gusty winds, low relative humidity, and warm
temperatures following increased lightning activity will create
high fire growth potential and an increased risk of new fire
starts.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MTZ116-091115-
/O.UPG.KTFX.FW.A.0014.170909T1800Z-170910T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.FW.W.0020.170909T1800Z-170910T1200Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
203 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY IN
EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY...
The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Sunday.
the Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Strong Gusty Winds...and Increasing
Thunderstorm Activity will create erratic fire behavior and an
increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zone 116.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Lewis and Clark.
In Southwest Montana, Jefferson.
* WIND: West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 25 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Isolated to scattered with a mix of wet and dry
possible Saturday afternoon and evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. Gusty winds, low relative humidity, and warm
temperatures following increased lightning activity will create
high fire growth potential and an increased risk of new fire
starts.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MTZ113-115-091115-
/O.NEW.KTFX.FW.A.0015.170910T1800Z-170911T0600Z/
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170909T0200Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
203 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY IN
EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Fire
Weather Watch, which is in effect from Sunday afternoon through
Sunday evening.
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Strong Gusty Winds...and Increasing
Thunderstorm Activity will create erratic fire behavior and an
increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 113 and 115.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Fergus.
In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Hill.
* WIND: West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 8 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS:
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of gusty
winds, very low relative humidity, and hot temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. A combination of gusty winds, low relative
humidity, and warm temperatures will create high fire growth
potential.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Fire Weather Watch.
&&
$$
http://weather.gov/greatfalls7 follow-up statements
241
WWUS85 KTFX 090158
RFWTFX
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
758 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017
MTZ113-115-091200-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170909T0200Z/
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.A.0015.170910T1800Z-170911T0600Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
758 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Unseasonably Warm Temperatures...and
Strong Gusty Winds will create erratic fire behavior and an
increased risk of new fire starts on Sunday.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 113 and 115.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Fergus.
In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Hill.
* WIND: West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 7 percent.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. A combination of gusty winds, low relative
humidity, and warm temperatures will create high fire growth
potential.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Fire Weather Watch.
&&
$$
MTZ112-114-117-091200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0020.170909T1800Z-170910T0600Z/
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.A.0015.170910T1800Z-170911T0600Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
758 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO
MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY NIGHT...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Unseasonably Warm Temperatures...and
Strong Gusty Winds will create erratic fire behavior and an
increased risk of new fire starts. Isolated thunderstorms
possible in Zone 117 as well.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 112, 114 and 117.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin
Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
In North Central Montana, Glacier, Liberty, Pondera, Teton
Toole.
* WIND: West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 14 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Isolated to scattered with a mix of wet and dry
possible Saturday afternoon and evening in Fire Zone 117.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. Gusty winds, low relative humidity, and warm
temperatures following increased lightning activity will create
high fire growth potential and an increased risk of new fire
starts.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MTZ118-091200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0020.170909T1800Z-170910T0600Z/
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
758 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO
MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY NIGHT...
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Unseasonably Warm Temperatures...and
Strong Gusty Winds will create erratic fire behavior and an
increased risk of new fire starts. Isolated thunderstorms also
possible.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zone 118.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
In Southwest Montana, Broadwater, Gallatin, Jefferson.
* WIND: Southwest 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 18 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Isolated to scattered with a mix of wet and dry
possible Saturday afternoon and evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. Gusty winds, low relative humidity, and warm
temperatures following increased lightning activity will create
high fire growth potential and an increased risk of new fire
starts.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MTZ116-091200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0020.170909T1800Z-170910T1200Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
758 PM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM
MDT SUNDAY...
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Unseasonably Warm Temperatures...and
Strong Gusty Winds will create erratic fire behavior and an
increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zone 116.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Lewis and Clark.
In Southwest Montana, Jefferson.
* WIND: West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 25 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Isolated to scattered with a mix of wet and dry
possible Saturday afternoon and evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. Gusty winds, low relative humidity, and warm
temperatures following increased lightning activity will create
high fire growth potential and an increased risk of new fire
starts.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
http://weather.gov/greatfalls549
WWUS85 KTFX 091013
RFWTFX
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
413 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
MTZ112-114-117-100300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0020.170909T1800Z-170910T0600Z/
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.A.0015.170910T1800Z-170911T0600Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
413 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT TONIGHT FOR INCREASING WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112...114...AND 117...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 112...114...AND 117...
* IMPACTS: Low humidities combined with increasing winds and a few
dry thunderstorms will create erratic fire behavior and an
increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 112, 114 and 117.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin
Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
In North Central Montana, Glacier, Liberty, Pondera, Teton
Toole.
* WIND (lower elevations): West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30
mph.
* WIND (mid to upper slopes and ridges): West 15 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 45 mph. The wind will continue through tonight, but
will be accompanied by rising humidity.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 18 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Isolated dry possible this afternoon and evening
in Fire Zone 117.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. Gusty winds, low relative humidity, and warm
temperatures will create high fire growth potential and an
increased risk of new fire starts.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MARTIN
MTZ118-100300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0020.170909T1800Z-170910T0600Z/
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
413 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT TONIGHT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
118...
* IMPACTS: Low humidities, gusty winds, and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will create erratic fire behavior and an increased
risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zone 118.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
In Southwest Montana, Broadwater, Gallatin, Jefferson.
* WIND: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
* HUMIDITY: 20 to 25 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Isolated to scattered with a mix of wet and dry
this afternoon and evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of gusty
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MARTIN
MTZ116-100300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0020.170909T1800Z-170910T1200Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
413 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MDT
SUNDAY FOR INCREASING WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...
* IMPACTS: Low humidities, gusty winds, and isolated thunderstorms
will create erratic fire behavior and an increased risk of new
fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zone 116.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Lewis and Clark.
In Southwest Montana, Jefferson.
* WIND (valleys): West 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
* WIND (mid to upper slopes and ridges): West 10 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph. Even with increasing humidity, the wind will
remain strong through tonight.
* HUMIDITY: 22 to 28 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Isolated dry this afternoon and evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MARTIN
MTZ113-115-100300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.A.0015.170910T1800Z-170911T0600Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
413 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 113 AND 115...
* IMPACTS: The potential exists for low humidities and gusty winds
which may create erratic fire behavior and an increased risk of
new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 113 and 115.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Fergus.
In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Hill.
* WIND: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 19 percent.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. A combination of gusty winds, low relative humidity,
and warm temperatures will create high fire growth potential.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Fire Weather Watch.
&&
$$
MARTIN
http://weather.gov/greatfalls398
WWUS85 KTFX 091525
RFWTFX
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
925 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
MTZ113-115-100630-
/O.UPG.KTFX.FW.A.0015.170910T1800Z-170911T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.FW.W.0021.170910T1800Z-170911T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KTFX.FW.W.0020.170909T1800Z-170910T0600Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
925 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT...
The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from noon today to midnight MDT
tonight. a Red Flag Warning has also been issued from noon Sunday
to midnight MDT Sunday night. the Fire Weather Watch is no longer
in effect.
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Unseasonably Warm Temperatures...
Strong Gusty Winds...and Isolated Dry Thunderstorms will create
erratic fire behavior and an increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 113 and 115.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Fergus.
In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Hill.
* WIND: West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will
cause gusty and erratic outflow winds as well as the possibility
of lightning-caused fire starts.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 13 percent.
* TEMPERATURES: In the upper 70s.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MTZ112-114-117-100630-
/O.UPG.KTFX.FW.A.0015.170910T1800Z-170911T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.FW.W.0021.170910T1800Z-170911T0600Z/
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0020.170909T1800Z-170910T0600Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
925 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT...
The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from noon Sunday to midnight MDT
Sunday night. the Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Unseasonably Warm Temperatures...
Strong Gusty Winds...and Dry Thunderstorms with gusty and
erratic outflow winds will create erratic fire behavior and an
increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 112, 114 and 117.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin
Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
In North Central Montana, Glacier, Liberty, Pondera, Teton
Toole.
* WIND (lower elevations): West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30
mph.
* WIND (mid to upper slopes and ridges): West 15 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 45 mph. The wind will continue through tonight, but
will be accompanied by rising humidity.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 15 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Isolated dry thunderstorms possible this
afternoon and evening in Fire Zone 117.
* WIND: West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
* TEMPERATURES: In the lower 70s.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MTZ118-100600-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0020.170909T1800Z-170910T0600Z/
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
925 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Unseasonably Warm Temperatures...
Strong Gusty Winds...and Isolated Dry Thunderstorms with gusty
and erratic outflow winds will create erratic fire behavior and
an increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zone 118.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
In Southwest Montana, Broadwater, Gallatin, Jefferson.
* WIND: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 19 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Isolated to scattered this afternoon and evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of gusty
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MTZ116-100630-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0020.170909T1800Z-170910T1200Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
925 AM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW HUMIDITY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY...
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Unseasonably Warm Temperatures...
Strong Gusty Winds...and Dry Thunderstorms with gusty and
erratic outflow winds will create erratic fire behavior and an
increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zone 116.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Lewis and Clark.
In Southwest Montana, Jefferson.
* WIND (valleys): West 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
* WIND (mid to upper slopes and ridges): West 10 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph. Even with increasing humidity, the wind
will remain strong through tonight.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 25 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Isolated dry this afternoon and evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
http://weather.gov/greatfalls975
WWUS85 KTFX 092048
RFWTFX
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
248 PM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
MTZ112>115-117-101200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170910T0600Z/
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0021.170910T1800Z-170911T0600Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
248 PM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT...
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Strong Gusty Winds...and Dry
Thunderstorms with gusty and erratic outflow winds will create
erratic fire behavior and an increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 112, 113, 114,
115 and 117.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin
Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Glacier, Hill
Liberty, Pondera, Teton, Toole.
* WIND: West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
* THUNDERSTORMS: For mainly Fire Weather Zone 117, scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorm will cause gusty and erratic
outflow winds as well as the possibility of lightning-caused fire
starts.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 14 percent.
* TEMPERATURES: In the mid 70s.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MTZ118-100600-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170910T0600Z/
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
248 PM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Strong Gusty Winds...and Dry
Thunderstorms with gusty and erratic outflow winds will create
erratic fire behavior and an increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zone 118.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
In Southwest Montana, Broadwater, Gallatin, Jefferson.
* WIND: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 19 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Isolated to scattered this afternoon and evening
producing gusty and erratic winds and perhaps a few lightning-
caused new fire starts.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of gusty
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MTZ116-101200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170910T1200Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
248 PM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY...
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Strong Gusty Winds...and Dry
Thunderstorms with gusty and erratic outflow winds will create
erratic fire behavior and an increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zone 116.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Lewis and Clark.
In Southwest Montana, Jefferson.
* WIND (valleys): West 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
* WIND (mid to upper slopes and ridges): West 15 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph. Even with increasing humidity, the wind will
remain strong through tonight.
* HUMIDITY: As low as 25 percent.
* THUNDERSTORMS: Isolated dry this afternoon and evening mainly
south of Highway 200 producing gusty and erratic outflow winds.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
http://weather.gov/greatfalls762
WWUS85 KTFX 100557
RFWTFX
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1157 PM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
MTZ112>115-117-102100-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170910T0600Z/
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0021.170910T1800Z-170911T0600Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
1157 PM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT SUNDAY NIGHT...
* IMPACTS: Low humidities and gusty winds will create erratic fire
behavior and an increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 112, 113, 114,
115 and 117.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin
Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Glacier, Hill
Liberty, Pondera, Teton, Toole.
* WIND (lower elevations and plains): Wind speeds will decrease
some overnight, then increase again on Sunday, becoming west 10
to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
* WIND (mid to upper slopes and ridgetops): West 25 to 35 mph.
* HUMIDITY: Moderate to good recovery overnight, then falling to 15
to 25 percent Sunday.
* TEMPERATURES: Mid 70s to mid 80s on Sunday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
gusty winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MARTIN
MTZ118-100700-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170910T0600Z/
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
1157 PM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 118...
Wind speeds have continued to decrease at lower elevations and
valleys and relative humidity continues to rise. Therefore, the Red
Flag Warning will be allowed to expire. However, ridgetops will
continue to see gusty winds of 10 to 20 mph through Saturday night,
especially ridges around the Helena area.
$$
MARTIN
MTZ116-101200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170910T1200Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
1157 PM MDT Sat Sep 9 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY...
* IMPACTS: Strong winds at mid to upper slopes and ridgetops will
create erratic fire behavior overnight.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zone 116.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Lewis and Clark.
In Southwest Montana, Jefferson.
* WIND (valleys): West 5 to 15 mph.
* WIND (mid to upper slopes and ridges): West 20 to 30 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph.
* HUMIDITY: Rising to 80 to 90 percent in valleys, but only 50 to
60 percent at mid and upper slopes.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. Strong winds can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MARTIN
http://weather.gov/greatfalls296
WWUS85 KTFX 100956
RFWTFX
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
356 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017
MTZ112>115-117-110200-
/O.EXT.KTFX.FW.W.0021.170910T1800Z-170911T0200Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
356 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 112
THROUGH 115 AND ZONE 117...
* IMPACTS: Lower humidities and gusty winds will create erratic
fire behavior and an increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 112, 113, 114,
115 and 117.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin
Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Glacier, Hill
Liberty, Pondera, Teton, Toole.
* WIND (lower elevations and plains): Winds will gradually increase
from west to east this morning with speeds of 10 to 20 mph and
gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Across fire zones 113 and 115, the wind
may decrease earlier this afternoon compared to areas further
west.
* WIND (mid to upper slopes and ridgetops along the Rocky Mountain
Front): West 15 to 25 mph. The wind may continue longer into the
night here.
* HUMIDITY: 15 to 25 percent.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of gusty
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MARTIN
MTZ116-101200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170910T1200Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
356 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 116...
* IMPACTS: Strong winds at mid to upper slopes and ridgetops
combined with poor humidity recovery will create erratic fire
behavior early this morning.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zone 116.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Lewis and Clark.
In Southwest Montana, Jefferson.
* WIND (valleys): West 5 to 15 mph, gusting to 20 mph.
* WIND (mid to upper slopes and ridges): West 20 to 30 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph.
* HUMIDITY: 35 to 50 percent.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. Strong winds and poor
humidity recovery can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
MARTIN
http://weather.gov/greatfalls864
WWUS85 KTFX 101140
RFWTFX
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
540 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017
MTZ116-101245-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170910T1200Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
540 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING...
Observations on the Alice Creek Fire in Zone 116 this morning
indicate gusty west winds, but with relative humidity ranging from
around 35 to 55 percent. Gusty ridgetop winds are expected to
continue today, but afternoon humidity is forecast to remain above
25 percent.
$$
MTZ112>115-117-110200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0021.170910T1800Z-170911T0200Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
540 AM MDT Sun Sep 10 2017
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...
* IMPACTS: Low Humidities and Strong Gusty Winds will create
erratic fire behavior and an increased risk of new fire starts.
* AFFECTED AREA:
In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 112, 113, 114,
115 and 117.
* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin
Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Glacier, Hill
Liberty, Pondera, Teton, Toole.
* WIND (lower elevations and plains): Winds will gradually
increase from west to east this morning with speeds of 10 to 20
mph and gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Across fire zones 113 and 115,
the wind may decrease earlier this afternoon compared to areas
further west.
* WIND (mid to upper slopes and ridgetops along the Rocky
Mountain Front): West 15 to 25 mph. The wind may continue
longer into the night here.
* HUMIDITY: 15 to 25 percent.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of gusty
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.
Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
http://weather.gov/greatfallsWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Sep 8, 11:40 AM MDT, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 8, 11:40 AM MDT, 2 hours 23 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1140 AM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017 ...Aviation Section Updated... .UPDATE... Morning update has been published, with only minor adjustments made to POPs and weather. Upper level ridging will begin to breakdown and flatten out throughout the day today and into the overnight hours tonight. While the main trough responsible for the breakdown of the ridge will remain over the Pacific Northwest and California Coast throughout the day today, weak emebedded waves will traverse the upstream side of the flattening ridge this afternoon and evening. As the ridge flattens and the upper level flow becomes increasingly southwesterly in nature, elevated moisture will begin to overspread Southwest Montana and the Continental Divide. For this reason, have increased POPs slightly more over Southwest Montana were convective allowing models continue to indicate shower/storm development this afternoon. It should be noted that any shower/storm that does develop today, will likely produce little accumulating rainfall. In addition to adjusting POPs, also inserted mention of isolated dry lightning where current SPC outlook is, generally along and southwest of a Choteau, to Great Falls, to Bozeman line. - Moldan && .SYNOPSIS... Another hot day is in store today with a few locations possibly nearing record highs. A cool front moving through Saturday evening will drop temperatures several degrees, but it will still remain above to well above normal for early September. This front will be accompanied by isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds. Breezy conditions will develop on Sunday behind the front. && .AVIATION... Updated 1740Z. VFR conditions expected through the 0818/0918 TAF period, however, possible MVFR conditions at times can not be ruled out this afternoon and evening over Southwest Montana and immediately downwind of the Rocky Mountain Front. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over Southwest Montana, as the upper level ridge which has provided the region with quiet conditions for the past week is broken down and replaced with a "relatively moist" southwest flow. The KEKS terminal is most at risk of seeing one of these storms this afternoon. Otherwise, smoke will make a return to most terminals this afternoon and evening as the southwest flow transports smoke from fires burning over Idaho/Oregon/Western Montana back into North Central and Southwest Montana. Reductions in visibilities will be possible as this smoke filters back into the region, however, confidence is low as to how low visibilities may fall. Mountain obscuration is possible this afternoon over Southwest Montana due to showers and thunderstorms, and will likely occur over Southwest Montana and along the Rocky Mountain Front late this afternoon and evening due to smoke. - Moldan && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected through at least the first half of the weekend, but possibly longer. A weak weather system approaches this afternoon and may help generate an isolated dry thunderstorm or two near the Continental Divide and over our far southern districts. However, confidence in this is very low at the moment given the residual dry air in place and the ridge axis overhead. The most critical area today will be over fire zones 113 and 115 where we have issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds and very dry conditions. It should be noted that very low humidity is expected here with single digit values expected. Fire Weather Watches remain in effect for the western and southern districts for Saturday afternoon through the evening for gusty winds increasing in association with the approach and passage of a Pacific cool front. Winds will increase through the day first along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and then expand south and east through the remainder of the day. Though humidity values will be marginal, the record dryness of the fuels and stronger winds should easily overcome those marginal humidity concerns. Gusty winds may continue and poor RH recoveries may continue well into the overnight Saturday night into Sunday, which may necessitate extending watches and any future warnings further out in time. At mid and upper slopes, sustained 25-40 mph winds are possible Saturday evening and night. One other concern for Saturday will be thunderstorms. There appears to be enough moisture for a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Strong outflow winds from any thunderstorms will also be an issue both Friday (if dry thunderstorms do develop) and Saturday. Outflow winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible. CC/MARTIN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM MDT Fri Sep 8 2017/ Today through Sunday...Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper level trough sitting just off the US West coast, with an upper level ridge extending from the Four Corners region north into central Canada. Of course, Hurricane Irma approaching the Bahamas sticks out like a sore thumb as well. As the ridge axis moves overhead today, 1000-500mb thickness values will continue running well above normal, likely allowing the hottest temperatures of the next few days to be realized. Smoke may limit heating some, but not enough to lower temperatures. A few locations may come close to, or reach, record highs this afternoon. Sinking and very dry air beneath the ridge should make it difficult for thunderstorm development today. However, moisture will continue to creep north out of the Great Basin, with a few thunderstorms possibly developing, mainly over SW MT. A weak shortwave moving north this evening may allow a few showers to reach southern sections of central MT, but given the very dry low levels, I opted to keep out any mention of showers/storms across the plains for now. On Saturday, moisture will continue to advect into the area from the south, with models suggesting a loose moisture connection to Hurricane Katia in the western Gulf of Mexico. While nothing to write home about, this may be the "best" moisture we've seen in awhile, providing a chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms areawide. Overall, though, the lack of better low level moisture should limit the coverage of thunderstorms. The best shear/instability combo looks to be along/west of the Continental Divide, but as we've seen in recent thunderstorm events, any shower or thunderstorm will likely be capable of strong gusty outflow winds, potentially in excess of 50 mph. A shortwave will glance the area Saturday evening, sending a Pacific cool front across the area. This will bring a period of breezy conditions to much of the area, with enhanced winds across favored locations along the Rocky Mountain Front and immediately adjacent plains. The breezy conditions continue on into Sunday in the wake of the front. The developing SW/W flow will bring smoke back into the area, especially by SAT/SUN. MARTIN Sunday Night through Friday...Temperatures trend warmer early next week under mostly clear skies, as a broad upper level ridge amplifies over the region. Even with light winds, this will maintain elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns due to low relative humidity and poor overnight recovery in thermal belts. The large- scale ridge axis moves east of the area on Wednesday. As the upper level flow turns more southwesterly, moisture associated with a closed low over California will be drawn across the Great Basin. This could help spawn a few showers or thunderstorms over southwest Montana Wednesday afternoon. The ridge collapses further Wednesday night into Thursday as a stronger trough approaches from the PacNW. This system has the potential to provide wetting rain showers across portions of the forecast area Thursday afternoon and evening. Ensemble solutions consistently indicate this trough passing through the area, but the coverage of rain showers and their precipitation amounts remain unresolved. Temperatures trend lower toward seasonal averages by the end of next week. PN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 93 60 89 57 / 0 0 20 20 CTB 91 58 87 53 / 0 0 10 10 HLN 90 59 88 57 / 10 30 20 30 BZN 88 53 86 52 / 10 20 20 30 WEY 77 42 75 41 / 10 20 20 20 DLN 85 51 82 50 / 20 30 30 30 HVR 96 54 93 57 / 0 0 20 20 LWT 91 57 88 55 / 0 0 20 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas...Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty... Gallatin National Forest...Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest...Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front...Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening Deerlodge/Western Beaverhead National Forest...Eastern Beaverhead National Forest. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening Chouteau and Fergus Counties...Hill and Blaine Counties. && weather.gov/greatfalls
The office that day
Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2:03 PM MDT | Fire Weather Watch | TFX | Blaine, Cascade, Chouteau, Fergus, Glacier, Hill and 8 more | 19 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Montana, 2017Every red flag warning in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.