Alert archive / Montana / Red Flag Warnings in 2017

Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Great Falls, MT

September 2, 201718 counties in Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this red flag warning at Sep 2, 2017, 3:52 AM MDT for 18 counties in Montana. It took effect at Sep 2, 2017, 3:00 PM MDT. It was in force for 54 hr. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Sep 2, 2017, 3:52 AM MDT (09:52 UTC)
In effect from: Sep 2, 2017, 3:00 PM MDT
Expired: Sep 4, 2017, 8:41 PM MDT
In force: 54 hr
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT

Counties Blaine County, MT, Broadwater County, MT, Cascade County, MT, Chouteau County, MT, Fergus County, MT, Gallatin County, MT, Glacier County, MT, Hill County, MT, Jefferson County, MT, Judith Basin County, MT, Lewis and Clark County, MT, Liberty County, MT, Meagher County, MT, Phillips County, MT, Pondera County, MT, Powell County, MT, Teton County, MT, Toole County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 24 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Sep 3, 10:05 PM MDT	NON-TSTM WND GST 40	6 Nnw Sunburst, MT	MESONET STATION MTSWT, SWEET GRASS MDT.
Sep 3, 11:29 PM MDT	NON-TSTM WND GST 55	15 Nne Lincoln, MT	MESONET STATION TT236, 15 NE LINCOLN.
Sep 3, 11:43 PM MDT	NON-TSTM WND GST 50	8 Ssw Wolf Creek, MT	MESONET STATION MTSBN, SIEBEN FLATS MDT.
Sep 3, 11:53 PM MDT	NON-TSTM WND GST 42	9 N Helena, MT	MESONET STATION HRWM8, HELENA RAWS - 9 N HELENA.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 00:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 37 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 3370 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 62 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 93 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

540 
WWUS85 KTFX 020952
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
352 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017

MTZ114-116-030500-
/O.UPG.KTFX.FW.A.0013.170903T0300Z-170905T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.FW.W.0018.170902T2100Z-170905T0300Z/
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
352 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND A COLD FRONT WIND SHIFT...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT
Monday. the Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* IMPACTS: Low humidities...gusty winds...and a wind shift with a
  cold front will create erratic fire behavior and an increased 
  risk of new fire starts. 

* WATCH AFFECTED AREA: In North Central Montana Fire Zone....114. 
  In Southwest Montana Fire Zone....116.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Lewis and Clark.
  In North Central Montana, Glacier, Pondera, Teton.
  In Southwest Montana, Jefferson.

* WIND (lower elevations): An increase in wind is expected by mid 
  afternoon, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph (locally higher gusts 
  immediately adjacent to the mountains). The wind will subside 
  some tonight, becoming light on Sunday afternoon, before 
  increasing again Sunday evening associated with the passage of a 
  cold front.

* WIND (mid/upper slopes): West winds of 10 to 20 mph this morning
  will gradually increase to 25 to 40 mph tonight and remain 
  strong through the night before decreasing some on Sunday. This 
  will be followed by a wind shift with a cold front Sunday 
  evening.

* HUMIDITY: As low as 15 to 25 percent this afternoon and again on
  Sunday afternoon. Poor RH recoveries are expected tonight, but 
  will begin to improve by Monday.

* COLD FRONT: Dry cold front pushes through Sunday evening, 
  bringing gusty winds and an eventual wind shift to more of a 
  north to northeast wind.

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana Fire Zone....114.
  In Southwest Montana Fire Zone....116.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of 
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MARTIN

MTZ112-030500-
/O.UPG.KTFX.FW.A.0013.170903T1500Z-170905T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.FW.W.0018.170902T2100Z-170905T0300Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
352 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND A COLD FRONT WIND SHIFT...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Red Flag 
Warning, which is in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT 
Monday. the Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...gusty winds...and a wind shift with a
  cold front will create erratic fire behavior and an increased 
  risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zone 112.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In North Central Montana, Glacier, Liberty, Pondera, Toole.

* WIND: An increase in wind is expected by mid afternoon today, 
  with gusts of 15 to 25 mph (locally higher gusts immediately 
  adjacent to the mountains). The wind will subside some tonight, 
  becoming light on Sunday afternoon, before increasing again 
  Sunday evening associated with the passage of a cold front. Gusts
  of 30 to 40 mph are expected with the front.

* HUMIDITY: As low as 15 to 25 percent this afternoon and again on
  Sunday afternoon. Poor RH recoveries are expected tonight, but 
  will begin to improve by Monday.

* COLD FRONT: Dry cold front pushes through Sunday evening, 
  bringing gusty winds and an eventual wind shift to more of a 
  north to northeast wind.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of 
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MARTIN

MTZ113-115-117-030500-
/O.EXT.KTFX.FW.A.0013.170904T0000Z-170905T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
352 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

* IMPACTS: A wind shift with a cold front will create erratic fire
  behavior and complicate existing wildfire containment efforts.

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 113, 115 and 117.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin, Meagher.
  In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Hill.

* COLD FRONT: Dry cold front pushes through Sunday evening through
  Sunday night, bringing gusty winds and an eventual wind shift to
  more of a north to northeast wind.

* WIND: North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* HUMIDITY: Humidity values will gradually improve late Sunday
  night into Monday behind the front.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. A combination of gusty winds, low relative humidity,
and warm temperatures will create high fire growth potential.

&&

$$

MARTIN

MTZ118-030500-
/O.EXT.KTFX.FW.A.0013.170903T1800Z-170905T0300Z/
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
352 AM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

* IMPACTS: Low humidities...gusty winds...and a wind shift with a
  cold front will create erratic fire behavior and an increased 
  risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zone 118.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
  In Southwest Montana, Broadwater, Gallatin, Jefferson.

* COLD FRONT: Dry cold front pushes through Sunday night into 
  Monday morning...possibly bringing a brief period of gusty winds 
  and a wind shift to a more north to northeast wind.

* WIND: West 5 to 15 mph Sunday afternoon, with gusts as high as 25
  mph. The wind becomes north behind a cold front Sunday night, 
  possibly gusting as high as 15 to 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY: As low as 12 percent Sunday afternoon, then gradually
  improving by Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. A combination of gusty winds, low relative humidity,
and warm temperatures will create high fire growth potential.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/greatfalls

MARTIN

9 follow-up statements

714 
WWUS85 KTFX 022049
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
249 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017

MTZ113-115-117-031200-
/O.UPG.KTFX.FW.A.0013.170904T0000Z-170905T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KTFX.FW.W.0018.170903T1500Z-170905T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
249 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW RH, AND A COLD FRONT WIND SHIFT...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from 9 AM Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday.
the Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Strong Gusty Winds...and Wind Shift 
  with a Cold Front will create erratic fire behavior and an 
  increased risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 113, 115 and 117.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin, Meagher.
  In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Hill.

* COLD FRONT: Dry cold front pushes through Sunday evening 
  through Sunday night, bringing gusty winds and an eventual wind 
  shift to more of a north to northeast wind.

* WIND: North 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* HUMIDITY: As low as 16 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of 
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ118-031200-
/O.UPG.KTFX.FW.A.0013.170903T1800Z-170905T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KTFX.FW.W.0018.170902T2100Z-170905T0300Z/
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
249 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR STRONG
WINDS, LOW RH, AND A COLD FRONT WIND SHIFT...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect until 9 PM MDT Monday. the Fire
Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Strong Gusty Winds...and Wind Shift 
  with a Cold Front will create erratic fire behavior and an 
  increased risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zone 118.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
  In Southwest Montana, Broadwater, Gallatin, Jefferson.

* COLD FRONT: Dry cold front pushes through Sunday night into 
  Monday morning...possibly bringing a brief period of gusty 
  winds and a wind shift to a more north to northeast wind.

* WIND: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY: As low as 10 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of 
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ112-114-116-031200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0018.170902T2100Z-170905T0300Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
249 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY...

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Strong Gusty Winds...and Wind Shift 
  with a Cold Front will create erratic fire behavior and an 
  increased risk of new fire starts. 

* WATCH AFFECTED AREA: In North Central Montana Fire Zone....114. 
  In Southwest Montana Fire Zone....116.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Lewis and Clark.
  In North Central Montana, Glacier, Liberty, Pondera, Teton
                             Toole.
  In Southwest Montana, Jefferson.

* WIND (lower elevations): An increase in wind is expected by mid
  afternoon, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph (locally higher gusts
  immediately adjacent to the mountains). The wind will subside
  some tonight, becoming light on Sunday afternoon, before
  increasing again Sunday evening associated with the passage of a
  cold front and a wind direction change to north to northeast.

* WIND (mid/upper slopes): West to northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph
  will gradually increase to 30 to 50 mph tonight and remain 
  strong through the night before decreasing some on Sunday. This 
  will be followed by a wind shift to northeasterly with a cold 
  front Sunday evening.

* HUMIDITY: As low as 11 percent.

* COLD FRONT: Dry cold front pushes through Sunday evening, 
  bringing gusty winds and an eventual wind shift to more of a 
  north to northeast wind.

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana Fire Zones...112...114.
  In Southwest Montana Fire Zone....116.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/greatfalls

924 
WWUS85 KTFX 030151
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
751 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017

MTZ112-114-116-118-031200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170905T0300Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
751 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY...

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Hot Temperatures...and Wind Shift 
  with a Cold Front will create erratic fire behavior and an 
  increased risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana Fire Zones...112...114.
  In Southwest Montana Fire Zones...116...118.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
  In North Central Montana, Glacier, Liberty, Pondera, Teton
                             Toole.
  In Southwest Montana, Broadwater, Gallatin, Jefferson.

* COLD FRONT: A dry cold front will move southward through the
  region Sunday night into Monday morning...possibly bringing a 
  brief period of gusty winds and a wind shift to a more north to 
  northeast wind.

* WIND:
  Tonight: West 10 to 20 mph...gusting near 40 mph at ridge tops.
  Sunday: West to northwest winds 10 to 20 mph...gust near 30 mph.
  Sunday Night: Becoming north at 10 to 20 mph.

* HUMIDITY: Near 10 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ113-115-117-031200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0018.170903T1500Z-170905T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
751 PM MDT Sat Sep 2 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY...

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Hot Temperatures...and Wind Shift 
  with a Cold Front will create erratic fire behavior and an 
  increased risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 113, 115 and 117.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin, Meagher.
  In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Hill.

* COLD FRONT: A dry cold front will move southward through the
  region Sunday night into Monday morning...possibly bringing a 
  brief period of gusty winds and a wind shift to a more north to 
  northeast wind.

* WIND:
  Sunday: West winds 10 to 20 mph...gusting near 30 mph.
  Sunday Night: Becoming north at 10 to 20 mph.

* HUMIDITY: Near 12 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/greatfalls

006 
WWUS85 KTFX 030910
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
310 AM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017

MTZ113-115-117-032300-
/O.EXT.KTFX.FW.W.0018.170903T0910Z-170905T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
310 AM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW RH, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, A
WIND SHIFT DUE TO A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS IS NOW IN 
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 113, 115 AND 117...

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Unseasonably Warm Temperatures... 
  Gusty Winds...and A Wind Shift with a Cold Front will create 
  erratic fire behavior and an increased risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 113, 115 and 117.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin, Meagher.
  In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Hill.

* COLD FRONT: A dry cold front is moving southward through the
  region this morning...bringing a period of gusty winds and a wind
  shift to the north. A second dry cold front with even stronger 
  north to northeast winds moves through Sunday night.

* WIND: North to northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. 
  Local gusts up to 45 mph possible at ridge tops and through 
  canyons.

* HUMIDITY: 10 to 15 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ112-114-116-118-032300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170905T0300Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
310 AM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW RH, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, A 
WIND SHIFT DUE TO A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS REMAINS IN 
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 112, 114, 116 AND 118...

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Unseasonably Warm Temperatures...  
  Gusty Winds...and A Wind Shift with a Cold Front will create 
  erratic fire behavior and an increased risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana Fire Zones...112...114.
  In Southwest Montana Fire Zones...116...118.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
  In North Central Montana, Glacier, Liberty, Pondera, Teton
                             Toole.
  In Southwest Montana, Broadwater, Gallatin, Jefferson.

* COLD FRONT: A dry cold front is moving southward through the
  region this morning...bringing a period of gusty winds and a wind
  shift to the north. A second dry cold front with even stronger 
  north to northeast winds moves through Sunday night.

* WIND: North to northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. 
  Local gusts up to 45 mph possible at ridge tops and through 
  canyons.

* HUMIDITY: 10 to 15 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/greatfalls

357 
WWUS85 KTFX 032057
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
257 PM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017

MTZ112-114-116-118-041200-
/O.EXT.KTFX.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170904T1200Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
257 PM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW RH, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND A WIND 
SHIFT DUE TO A COLD FRONT NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 112, 114, 116, AND 118...

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Strong Gusty Winds...and Wind Shift 
  with a Cold Front will create erratic fire behavior and an 
  increased risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana Fire Zones...112...114.
  In Southwest Montana Fire Zones...116...118.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
  In North Central Montana, Glacier, Liberty, Pondera, Teton
                             Toole.
  In Southwest Montana, Broadwater, Gallatin, Jefferson.

* COLD FRONT: A dry cold front moves southward through the region
  this evening...bringing a period of strong northeasterly gusty 
  winds.
 
* WIND: West wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph becoming North
  10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph upon cold frontal passage
  this evening, then slowly diminish to around 5 mph toward 
  morning.
  
* HUMIDITY: As low as 11 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ113-115-117-041200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170905T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
257 PM MDT Sun Sep 3 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW RH, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND A WIND 
SHIFT DUE TO A COLD FRONT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT 
MONDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 113, 115, AND 117...

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Strong Gusty Winds...and Wind Shift 
  with a Cold Front will create erratic fire behavior and an 
  increased risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 113, 115 and 117.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin, Meagher.
  In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Hill.

* COLD FRONT: A dry cold front with strong north to northeast winds
  moves through this evening.

* WIND: North to Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming Northeast 15
  to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph with cold frontal passage this
  evening, then diminishing to North 5 to 15 mph Monday morning
  through Monday evening.

* HUMIDITY: As low as 15 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/greatfalls

209 
WWUS85 KTFX 040914
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
314 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017

MTZ112-114-041015-
/O.CAN.KTFX.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170904T1200Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
314 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

Winds across Fire Zones 112 and 114 have diminished in the wake of
a cold front that swept through the region overnight. Temperatures
today will be cooler and minimum RH values will be higher. As a
result, the Red Flag Warning for these zones has been cancelled.


$$

MTZ116-118-041800-
/O.EXT.KTFX.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170904T1800Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
314 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY...

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Gusty Winds...and a Wind Shift with a  
  Cold Front will create erratic fire behavior and an increased 
  risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In Southwest Montana, Fire Weather Zones 116 and 118.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Meagher.
  In Southwest Montana, Broadwater, Gallatin, Jefferson.

* COLD FRONT: A dry cold front continues to move southward through
  the region this morning. Strong and gusty north to northeasterly
  winds will continue through late morning before diminishing.

* WIND: North 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* HUMIDITY: 15 to 25 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ113-115-117-042200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170905T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
314 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities and Gusty Winds will create erratic fire
  behavior and an increased risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 113, 115 and 117.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin, Meagher.
  In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Hill.

* COLD FRONT: A dry cold front moved through most of the forecast
  overnight but winds will remain somewhat gusty and variable 
  behind the front today.

* WIND: North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY: 15 to 25 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/greatfalls

946 
WWUS85 KTFX 041238
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
638 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017

MTZ116-118-041345-
/O.CAN.KTFX.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170904T1800Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
638 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

Gusty north winds will continue to subside through the day while
humidity values will remain above critical levels.

$$

MTZ113-115-117-050300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170905T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
638 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities and Strong Gusty Winds will create 
  erratic fire behavior and an increased risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 113, 115 and 117.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Cascade, Fergus, Judith Basin, Meagher.
  In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Hill.

* WIND: North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY: 15 to 25 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/greatfalls

347 
WWUS85 KTFX 041517
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
917 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017

MTZ117-041630-
/O.CAN.KTFX.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170905T0300Z/
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
917 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

Winds and humidity levels are no longer expected to reach critical
levels today. 

$$

MTZ113-115-050300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170905T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
917 AM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities and Strong Gusty Winds will create 
  erratic fire behavior and an increased risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 113 and 115.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Fergus.
  In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Hill.

* WIND: North 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY: 15 to 25 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/greatfalls

125 
WWUS85 KTFX 042006
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
206 PM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017

MTZ113-115-050300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170905T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
206 PM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities and Strong Gusty Winds will create 
  erratic fire behavior and an increased risk of new fire starts. 

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 113 and 115.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  In Central Montana, Fergus.
  In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Hill.

* WIND: North 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* HUMIDITY: 15 to 25 percent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/greatfalls

919 
WWUS85 KTFX 050241
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
841 PM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017

MTZ113-115-050345-
/O.CAN.KTFX.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170905T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
841 PM MDT Mon Sep 4 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

Northeast winds are starting to diminish while relative humidity 
values have improved this evening. Given the improving 
conditions...the Red Flag Warning has been cancelled. 

$$

http://weather.gov/greatfalls

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Sep 1, 9:30 PM MDT, 6 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 1, 9:30 PM MDT, 6 hours 22 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
930 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.UPDATE...

Evening Update has been published, with only minor adjustments
made to overnight low temperatures. The Red Flag Warning which was
in effect for Fire Weather Zones 112/114/116/117 has been allowed
to expire at 9pm MDT this evening. Winds along the Rocky Mountain
Front and across the adjacent plains have been trending down this
evening, all the while relative humidity values have been climbing
above critical values. These trends are expected to further
continue for the remainder of the night with respect to decreasing
winds and increasing relative humidity values.

Upper level ridging continues to build into the Northern Rockies,
and will generally promote clear skies overnight tonight. The one
exception to these clear skies is across Liberty, Hill, and
Blaine Counties were some high clouds skirting the ridge axis may
sneak in during the early morning hours. Otherwise, areas of smoke
and haze will continue across North Central and Southwest
Montana. Given the clear skies and dry air present, decreased
temperatures slightly more across most areas. The one area where
I did decrease temperatures significantly was over Southwest
Montana, especially in those cold prone areas (i.e. West
Yellowstone and Wisdom). - Moldan

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper level ridge high pressure will reside over the region
through the weekend. As a result, expect very warm to hot afternoon
temperatures on Saturday and Sunday with no precipitation expected.
Some relief from the heat is expected on Monday as slightly cooler
air moves southward into the region from Canada. Overall, much of
next week still looks to be mostly dry, with a return of very warm
temperatures by the middle portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0330Z.

VFR conditions continue through at least Saturday evening under a
dry westerly flow aloft. Skies will remain clear, but wildfire smoke
will reduce visibility, especially over ridgetops and through
mountain passes close to the fires. Visibility may also be reduced
to MVFR levels for brief periods of time at the terminals. Overall,
winds will remain light, but west winds will become gusty at times
over the plains between 18Z and 02Z. Gusts of 20 kt will be common,
but gusts could reach 35 kt close to the Rocky Mountain Front.
Coulston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Some areas will continue to be breezy and dry this afternoon and
evening...so have continued the Red Flag Warning for today. Some
other areas...especially in the Helena Valley...are borderline
today. Feel the gusty winds will just fall short of criteria so
have left them out for today...although elevated fire danger is
expected.

This weekend looks to bring more critical fire weather danger with
warm temperatures...low RH values...and periods of gusty winds.
Saturday night will kick off the gusty winds along the Rocky
Mountain Front with poor RH recovery expected Sunday morning. Have
started a Fire Weather Watch for this reason for the Rocky
Mountain Front Zones. Breezy and very dry conditions are then
expected for Sunday...prompting a fire weather watch for most
areas in the CWA except the far south. A dry cold front then looks
to come through sometime Sunday night into Monday. Although
temperatures will cool and RH values will improve...a sharp wind
shift to a more north and east wind has prompted to continue the
Fire Weather Watch through Monday. Anglin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 505 PM MDT Fri Sep 1 2017/

Today through Sunday...Overall the main concerns continue to be
Fire Weather Danger through the short term forecast. Breezy winds
this afternoon should start to diminish this evening...for now
have kept the Red Flag Warning. Ridge of high pressure builds back
in for Saturday bringing very warm temperatures back in the 90s
and low RH back in the teens. Winds will be on the border during
the day Saturday...although 700 MB winds continue to be 20 to 30
knots in some areas...possibly bringing some afternoon breezes on
Saturday. So it appears to be a marginal critical day because of
the lack of confidence on the winds. Ridge flattens slightly
Saturday night into Sunday...while a very dry airmass rides over
the ridge. The result will be poor RH recover Sunday morning...and
perhaps some gusty winds to the ridge top levels along the Rocky
Mountain Front. The rest of Sunday then looks breezy and very warm
in the 90s ahead of an approaching dry cold front...with very low
RH values in the teens. This has the potential to be another
critical fire weather day...so have issued a Fire Weather Watch
for most areas as early as Saturday night and continuing through
Sunday...and into Monday from a dry cold front passage. With dry
conditions expected to continue through the Labor Day weekend
those with outdoor plans should be mindful of any errant sparks
that may start a fire. Anglin

Sunday night through Friday...Models continue to be in good
agreement that a Canadian cool front will push southward through
Montana Sunday night. No precipitation is forecast to accompany the
frontal passage and gusty north winds behind the front could cause
some fire weather concerns. On the other hand, the overnight timing
and anticipated higher RH values behind the front may also act to
limit these concerns somewhat. At this time, the system will
continue to be monitored. Winds diminish on Monday and forecast
highs are expected to be near seasonal averages for one day of much
needed relief for the forecast area. Unfortunately, the effects of
the cool front will be very short lived with the upper level ridge
over western North America quickly rebounding on Tuesday, then
gradually progressing over Montana through the remainder of the
week. Mostly dry and very warm conditions prevail Tuesday through
Thursday as the ridge dominates. By Friday, models appear to move
the ridge axis far enough to the east to allow a southwest flow
aloft to develop over western Montana. Have therefore introduced a
slight chance for a thunderstorm or two over western portions of the
forecast area. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  94  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  51  91  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  55  94  58  95 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  48  91  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  34  82  39  84 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  48  91  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  52  93  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  89  56  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday evening through Monday evening
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky
Mountain Front...Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National
Forest.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas...
Chouteau and Fergus Counties...Eastern
Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty...Gallatin
National Forest...Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the
Helena National Forest...Hill and Blaine Counties.

&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Montana, 2017 Every red flag warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.