Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
226 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SHORT TERM (This Afternoon - Tuesday)...
Narrow and slow lifting upper trough will remain down the east coast
into the deep south with energy wrapping through the N Gulf Coast
while another area of upper energy over Cuba will lifts over
the South and Central FL Peninsula through Tuesday. Large N
Atlantic dome of surface high pressure stretches back through
Bermuda into the FL Peninsula and E Gulf will continue to
dominate the lower levels. Light steering flow will continue
in the very moist and unstable environment. These features
all combine to produce scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms with morning into early afternoon activity
near the coast that will slowly move and propagate inland on
sea breeze and outflow boundaries through the afternoon
into evening hours. Mid summer temperatures and dew points
continue for warm and muggy conditions.

.MID-LONG TERM(Tuesday Night - Monday)...
An upper level trough down the eastern seaboard shifts offshore and
dampens out by the end of the week...allowing weak upper level
ridging to build in across the region. At the surface broad and
relaxed Atlantic high pressure extends into most of the Gulf of
Mexico with an axis initially across southern FL. This axis lifts
northward later in the week...as the upper trough moves out over the
Atlantic and the upper ridging builds in...and reaches northern FL
for the weekend. Low level flow remains light through the period...
predominately onshore and enhanced by afternoon sea breezes through
Fri. For the weekend into early next week the flow become more south
then southeast except shifting to onshore in afternoon sea breezes.
Deep moisture will be in place with PWAT values around 2 inches but
decreasing into the 1.5 to 1.9 inch range after Fri.

A summer time pattern of isolated to scattered to locally numerous
showers and thunderstorms will continue. During the work week late
night Gulf showers and storms move onshore in the mornings then
inland in the afternoon...where the greatest coverage is expected.
For Sat through Mon showers and storms begin inland in the late
mornings and increase during the afternoons closer to the coast.
Temperatures will run near normal to above by a couple of degrees
or so.

&&

.AVIATION...
Coastal scattered seabreeze thunderstorms pushing inland to become
more numerous through the afternoon into evening hours. Have seen
and continue to expect gusty winds with brief IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys
in and around storms. Aft 00Z-02Z expect convection to wane with VFR
conditions returning after that through Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak Bermuda high pressure will continue to dominate the marine
weather through the week for light winds and slight seas. Winds
will shift onshore near the coast each afternoon as the seabreeze
develops. The only marine concern will be scattered summertime
thunderstorms, which may result in locally stronger winds,
rougher seas and frequent lightning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Summertime moisture and rains will continue through the week limiting
fire weather concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  91  78  90 /  40  30  20  50
FMY  76  91  76  90 /  30  40  20  50
GIF  75  93  75  92 /  40  60  30  70
SRQ  77  90  77  88 /  40  40  30  50
BKV  73  92  74  91 /  30  30  20  60
SPG  79  91  78  90 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
413 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-180400-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
413 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon and push
inland with numerous storms expected over the interior. Stronger
storms will produce gusty winds and frequent lightning. Storms
will diminish by late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected each day. A few stronger storms may
occur, with gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

McKaughan

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
209 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

FLZ242-171900-
Inland Citrus-
209 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CITRUS COUNTY...

At 209 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Beverly Hills.
the storm is nearly stationary.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Inverness, Beverly Hills, Homosassa Springs, Inverness Highlands
South, Inverness Airport, Inverness Highlands North, Black Diamond,
Hernando, Arbor Lakes, Lecanto, Leisure Acres, Crystal Oaks,
Inverness Highlands, River Lakes Manor, Citrus Springs, Pine Ridge,
Citrus Hills, Gospel Island and Brent Wood.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 2904 8251 2905 8249 2905 8247 2901 8242
      2902 8240 2900 8238 2900 8236 2899 8236
      2897 8231 2895 8230 2874 8231 2877 8252
      2904 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 274DEG 3KT 2896 8243

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
314 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

FLZ151-155-251-255-172000-
Inland Manatee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Hillsborough-Inland
Hillsborough-
314 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MANATEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...

At 314 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Parrish, or 12
miles east of Palmetto, moving northwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ruskin, Parrish, Greater Sun Center, Little Manatee River State Park,
Lake Manatee State Park, Wimauma, Sun City Center and Gibsonton.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 2778 8254 2779 8256 2782 8228 2748 8221
      2743 8244 2772 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 157DEG 18KT 2758 8238

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
328 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

FLZ043-148-242-248-249-172015-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Coastal Hernando-Inland Citrus-Sumter-
328 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CITRUS...CENTRAL
SUMTER...NORTHEASTERN PASCO AND HERNANDO COUNTIES...

At 327 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Bushnell, moving east at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Spring Hill, Brooksville, Inverness, Bushnell, Homosassa Springs,
Weeki Wachee, Inverness Airport, Hill n Dale, South Brooksville,
North Brooksville, Inverness Highlands South, Hernando County
Airport, North Weeki Wachee, Timber Pines, Sugarmill Woods, Lake
Panasoffkee, Ridge Manor, Coleman, Royal Highlands and High Point.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 2885 8251 2880 8205 2842 8211 2844 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 285DEG 5KT 2864 8223

TBW

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