Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

725 
WWUS52 KTBW 102211
SVSTBW

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
611 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

FLC053-101-102221-
/O.EXP.KTBW.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-170710T2215Z/
Pasco FL-Hernando FL-
611 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PASCO AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HERNANDO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2844 8216 2833 8222 2843 8251 2862 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 133DEG 13KT 2845 8233 

$$

TBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
255 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Tuesday)...
Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop across
the forecast area the remainder of the afternoon with the
greatest storm coverage expected over inland locations along
the sea breeze merger. Steep lapse rates and cool dry air
aloft may support a few strong storms with strong gusty
winds and small hail along with frequent lightning and
locally heavy downpours. Outflow boundaries from the storms
could shift back to the west during the late afternoon and
early evening hours which may help to ignite some additional
storms toward the Gulf coast through the first half of
tonight before ending or shifting west into the Gulf waters.
Mainly dry conditions are expected overnight with the
debris cloudiness thinning out with skies becoming partly
cloudy toward morning. It will be a warm and muggy night
with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

On Tuesday Upper level and surface ridging over the Atlantic
will lift north to lie across the northern peninsula
during the day. With the surface ridge axis moving to the
north a deep layered east southeast wind flow can be
expected across the forecast area. Ample moisture (PW's in
the 1.8 to 2 inch range) within this flow combined with
daytime heating will support scattered to numerous sea
breeze driven showers and thunderstorms over the region
during the afternoon and evening hours. Similar to previous
days the main hazards from the storms will be locally heavy
rains, strong gusty winds, frequent deadly lightning
strikes, and some small hail. Temperatures on Tuesday will
run a few degrees above normal with highs climbing into the
lower 90s along the coast, and lower to mid 90s inland.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night - Monday)...
Mid-upper level ridging continues to extend across the
Florida peninsula from near Bermuda. This pattern will
hold steady until Sunday next weekend when the ridge shifts
south as troughing digs into the east coast. On the surface,
subtropical high pressure near Bermuda extends west
southwest over northern Florida. This will keep a
predominant northeast through southeast wind flow over the
region through the week. With that flow, the highest chances
of showers and storms will be along the west coast of
Florida each afternoon through Thursday. A tropical wave
approaching the region on Thursday and will bring higher
rain chances (50-70% pops) over southern Florida on Thursday
and Friday. High pressure sets back up over central Florida
by Saturday and will be the dominant weather feature into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered shra/tsra may bring brief MVFR/IFR cigs and vsby
along with some gusty winds to the terminal sites through
02Z tonight. Outside of the convection VFR will prevail.
Southeast winds in the 6 to 8 knot range will shift to the
southwest and west as the sea breeze moves inland. Winds
will back to the east-southeast during the evening, then
become light and variable overnight into early Tuesday
morning. Scattered shra/tsra will redevelop over the area
after 16Z on Tuesday and some brief MVFR/IFR restrictions
will again be possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure across the central Florida peninsula
this afternoon will lift north to lie across the northern
peninsula and southeastern states on Tuesday where it will
remain through Friday. An inverted trough (remnants of TD#4)
will move across the southern peninsula and into the Gulf
during Thursday and Friday. As the trough moves across winds
will back to the northeast with a slight uptick in speeds
as the gradient tightens a bit Thursday into early Friday,
otherwise a light east to southeast winds with slight seas
and an onshore sea breeze component developing along the
coast each afternoon will be the rule. During the upcoming
weekend the surface ridge axis will sink back to the south
as the eastern U.S. upper level trough amplifies some and an
attendant cold front moves into the deep south. As the
ridge sinks south a light southeast to southerly wind flow
can be expected with an enhanced onshore sea breeze
component developing along the coast each afternoon. Wind
and seas will be higher in the vicinity of scattered
thunderstorms each day, otherwise no other marine hazards or
headlines are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ample low level moisture and daily rain chances will keep
humidity values well above critical levels through the end
of the week with no fire weather issues expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  91  77  92 /  30  50  30  30
FMY  75  92  76  92 /  20  50  20  40
GIF  75  92  75  93 /  30  40  20  50
SRQ  76  91  76  91 /  30  40  30  30
BKV  74  92  73  93 /  40  50  30  30
SPG  79  90  79  92 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
530 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-110000-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
530 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico early this morning will translate inland late this morning
along the Nature Coast and then during the afternoon across the
rest of the area. The storms will gradually come to end during the
evening. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains and frequent deadly
lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
An increasing easterly flow will setup across the region during
the work week as the ridge axis moves north of the area. Scattered
to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to
develop and move westward each day with the highest rain chances
along the coastal counties. Over the upcoming weekend the ridge
axis will settle into central Florida with lighter winds across
the area. More scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
with the highest rain chances shifting to inland areas.
Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong
gusty winds...locally heavy rains and frequent deadly lightning
strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

PRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
518 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

FLZ151-249-251-102200-
Inland Pasco FL-Coastal Hillsborough FL-Inland Hillsborough FL-
518 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PASCO AND NORTH
CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 518 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wesley Chapel South to near University to
near East Lake-Orient Park. Movement was northwest at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tampa, Temple Terrace, Lutz, Brandon, Keystone, Greater Northdale,
Palm River-Clair Mel, East Lake-Orient Park, Land O Lakes, Pebble
Creek, Citrus Park, Greater Carrollwood, Lake Magdalene, University,
Wesley Chapel South, Egypt Lake-Leto, Busch Gardens, Mango, New Tampa
and Tampa Executive Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2840 8233 2823 8256 2813 8263 2790 8236
      2798 8229 2810 8232 2821 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 135DEG 7KT 2819 8227 2810 8241 2797 8241

TBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
529 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND GST     MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE  27.85N 82.52W
07/10/2017  M41 MPH          HILLSBOROUGH       FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            MACDILL AFB RECORDED A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH

&&

CARLISLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
532 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW MACDILL AIR FORCE 27.86N 82.55W
07/10/2017  M43 MPH          HILLSBOROUGH       FL   MESONET

            OLD PORT TAMPA MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 43 MPH

&&

CARLISLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
539 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 ESE DOWNTOWN SAINT PE 27.75N 82.56W
07/10/2017  M59.00 MPH       GMZ830             FL   MESONET

            51 KNOTS MEASURED AT THE MIDDLE TAMPA BAY PORTS SITE.

&&

NOAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
543 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALBERT WHITTED AIRPORT  27.76N 82.64W
07/10/2017  M53 MPH          PINELLAS           FL   ASOS

            KSPG MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 46 KNOTS

&&

CARLISLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
550 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     TSTM WND GST     PIE ST PETE CLRWTR AIRP 27.92N 82.69W
07/10/2017  M46 MPH          PINELLAS           FL   ASOS

            KPIE MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 40 KNOTS

&&

CARLISLE