Alert archive / Florida / River Flood Warnings in 2017

River Flood Warning 6, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

July 10, 2017Manatee County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this river flood warning at Jul 10, 2017, 9:51 PM EDT for Manatee County, Florida. It took effect at Jul 11, 2017, 6:23 AM EDT. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 10, 2017, 9:51 PM EDT (01:51 UTC)
In effect from
Jul 11, 2017, 6:23 AM EDT
Expired
Jul 14, 2017, 8:41 AM EDT
In force
3 days
Issued by
NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Manatee County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Manatee River near Myakka Head at SR 64 (MKHF1). The gauge peaked at 15.38 ft at Jul 12, 2017, 4:00 AM EDT.

actionminormoderate5101507/1107/1207/1307/1407/15
Action stage
9.5 ft
Minor stage
11 ft
Moderate stage
15 ft
Major stage
17 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02299950, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

893 
WGUS42 KTBW 110151
FLWTBW
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
951 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

...The National Weather Service in Tampa Fl has issued a Flood Warning 
for the following rivers...

  Manatee River Near Myakka Head 

.Heavy rain over the Manatee River basin this afternoon will cause the 
Manatee River near Myakka Head to rise above flood stage Tuesday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The 
latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can 
follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC081-111451-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FL.W.0006.170711T1200Z-170712T0300Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.170711T1200Z.170711T1800Z.170711T2100Z.NO/
951 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Tampa Fl has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Manatee River Near Myakka Head
* From Tuesday morning until Tuesday evening.
* At 9 PM Monday the stage was...9.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning 
  and continue to rise to near 11.1 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.
  The river is expected to fall below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Private road and bridge 1 mile downstream 
  flood. Agricultural, rural Kibler area begins to flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.1 feet 
  on Jun 27 1996.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Manatee
 Myakka Head  11.0   9.3  Mon 09 PM  10.0    7.5    6.0    5.2    MSG


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8217 2743 8224 2745 8233 2752 8233
 2751 8224 2753 8224                  


$$
10 follow-up statements
146 
WGUS82 KTBW 111028
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
628 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following 
rivers in Florida... 

  Manatee River Near Myakka Head 

.Flooding continues on the Manatee River Near Myakka Head due to heavy rain
from yesterday afternoon. Increased runoff will result in a higher crest
than previously expected this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The latest 
forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can follow NWSTampaBay 
on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC081-120920-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0006.170711T1023Z-170712T0920Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.170711T0545Z.170711T1800Z.170712T0320Z.NO/
628 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...Flood Warning extended until late tonight...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manatee River Near Myakka Head
* Until late tonight.
* At 05 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 12.0 feet by this afternoon. The river 
  is expected to fall below flood stage tonight.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Private road and bridge 1 mile downstream flood. 
  Agricultural, rural Kibler area begins to flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.0 feet on Jul 10 
  2009.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun

Manatee
 Myakka Head  11.0  11.7  Tue 05 AM   9.9    7.3    5.9    5.2    MSG


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8217 2743 8224 2745 8233 2752 8233
 2751 8224 2753 8224                  


$$
Norman
001 
WGUS82 KTBW 111309
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
909 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following 
rivers in Florida... 

  Manatee River Near Myakka Head 

.Flooding continues on the Manatee River Near Myakka Head due to heavy rain
from yesterday afternoon. The river appears to have crested and will begin
falling through tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The latest 
forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can follow NWSTampaBay 
on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC081-120834-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170712T0834Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.170711T0545Z.170711T1145Z.170712T0234Z.NO/
909 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...Flood Warning extended until late tonight...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manatee River Near Myakka Head
* Until late tonight.
* At 08 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by tonight.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Private road and bridge 1 mile downstream flood. 
  Agricultural, rural Kibler area begins to flood.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun

Manatee
 Myakka Head  11.0  11.8  Tue 08 AM  10.0    7.8    6.2    5.4    4.9


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8217 2743 8224 2745 8233 2752 8233
 2751 8224 2753 8224                  



$$
Norman
229 
WGUS82 KTBW 120113
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
913 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following 
rivers in Florida... 

  Manatee River Near Myakka Head 

.Flooding continues on the Manatee River Near Myakka Head due to heavy rain
from the past few days. Heavy rain today has caused water levels to rise above
previous forecasts. Flooding is now expected to continue through at least
Thursday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The latest 
forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can follow NWSTampaBay 
on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC081-130113-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170713T2100Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.170711T0545Z.170712T0600Z.170713T1500Z.NO/
913 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manatee River Near Myakka Head
* Until Thursday afternoon.
* At 08 PM Tuesday the stage was 12.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 13.1 feet by after midnight tomorrow. 
  The river is expected to fall below flood stage late Thursday morning.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Private road and bridge 1 mile downstream flood. 
  Agricultural, rural Kibler area begins to flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 13.1 feet on Oct 10 
  2011.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun

Manatee
 Myakka Head  11.0  12.3  Tue 08 PM  13.1   11.3    9.3    7.6    6.3


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8217 2743 8224 2745 8233 2752 8233
 2751 8224 2753 8224                  



$$
318 
WGUS82 KTBW 120259
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1059 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following 
rivers in Florida... 

  Manatee River Near Myakka Head 

.Flooding continues on the Manatee River Near Myakka Head due to heavy rain
from the past few days. Heavy rain today has caused water levels to rise above
previous forecasts. Flooding is now expected to continue through at least
Thursday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The latest 
forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can follow NWSTampaBay 
on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC081-130259-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170714T0500Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.170711T0545Z.170712T0600Z.170713T2300Z.NO/
1059 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...Flood Warning extended until late Thursday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manatee River Near Myakka Head
* Until late Thursday night.
* At 10 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 13.9 feet by after midnight tomorrow. 
  The river is expected to fall below flood stage Thursday evening.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Private road and bridge 1 mile downstream flood. 
  Agricultural, rural Kibler area begins to flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 13.9 feet on Sep 19 
  1994.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun

Manatee
 Myakka Head  11.0  13.3  Tue 10 PM  13.8   12.2    9.9    8.1    6.6


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8217 2743 8224 2745 8233 2752 8233
 2751 8224 2753 8224                  



$$
926 
WGUS42 KTBW 120646
FLWTBW
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
246 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...Observed flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the 
following river in Florida...

  Manatee River Near Myakka Head 

.Flooding continues on the Manatee River near Myakka Head due to 
heavy rain from the past few days and this has caused water levels 
to continue to rise. Flooding is now expected to continue through 
at least Thursday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. 
The latest forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. 
You can follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC081-121946-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170714T0500Z/
/MKHF1.2.ER.170711T0545Z.170712T0615Z.170713T2300Z.NO/
246 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...Observed flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Manatee River Near Myakka Head
* Until late Thursday night
* At 2 AM Wednesday the stage was...15.2 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 15.8 feet this morning. 
  The river is expected to fall below flood stage Thursday evening.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Low sections of State Road 64 start to 
  flood.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Private road and bridge 1 mile downstream 
  flood. Agricultural, rural Kibler area begins to flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 
  14.9 feet on Aug 28 1981.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun

Manatee
 Myakka Head  11.0  15.2  Wed 02 AM  15.8   12.2    9.9    8.1    6.6


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8217 2743 8224 2745 8233 2752 8233
 2751 8224 2753 8224                  


$$
719 
WGUS82 KTBW 121327
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
927 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following 
rivers in Florida... 

  Manatee River Near Myakka Head 

.Moderate flooding continues into the afternoon on the Manatee River 
Near Myakka Head due to heavy rain over the last couple of days. 
Minor flooding will continue at least into Thursday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The latest 
forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can follow NWSTampaBay 
on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC081-131327-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170713T2230Z/
/MKHF1.2.ER.170711T0545Z.170712T0915Z.170713T1630Z.NO/
927 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manatee River Near Myakka Head
* Until Thursday evening.
* At 08 AM Wednesday the stage was 15.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Low sections of State Road 64 start to flood.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Private road and bridge 1 mile downstream flood. 
  Agricultural, rural Kibler area begins to flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 15.2 feet on Sep 8 
  1981.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon

Manatee
 Myakka Head  11.0  15.2  Wed 08 AM  11.6    9.5    7.6    6.3    5.6


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8217 2743 8224 2745 8233 2752 8233
 2751 8224 2753 8224                  



$$
DJN
527 
WGUS82 KTBW 130246
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1046 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following 
rivers in Florida... 

  Manatee River Near Myakka Head 

.Heavy rain along the Manatee River near Myakka
Head has caused the river to go into minor flood 
stage. The river is expected to get below flood 
stage by Thursday night. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The latest 
forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC081-140246-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170714T0700Z/
/MKHF1.2.ER.170711T0545Z.170712T0915Z.170714T0100Z.NO/
1046 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...Flood Warning extended until late Thursday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manatee River Near Myakka Head
* Until late Thursday night.
* At 10 PM Wednesday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by tomorrow late evening.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Private road and bridge 1 mile downstream flood. 
  Agricultural, rural Kibler area begins to flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 13.7 feet on Jul 25 1979.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon

Manatee
 Myakka Head  11.0  13.7  Wed 10 PM  12.6   10.0    8.6    7.1    6.1


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8217 2743 8224 2745 8233 2752 8233
 2751 8224 2753 8224                  



$$
789 
WGUS82 KTBW 131257
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
857 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following 
rivers in Florida... 

  Manatee River Near Myakka Head 

.Water levels are steadily falling but minor flooding continues on the 
Manatee River Near Myakka Head at least until Friday. However, additional 
locally heavy rainfall is possible beginning this afternoon and this could 
bring another temporary rise in river levels due to the saturated ground 
producing efficient runoff.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The latest 
forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can follow NWSTampaBay 
on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC081-141257-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170714T2136Z/
/MKHF1.2.ER.170711T0545Z.170712T0915Z.170714T1536Z.NO/
857 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manatee River Near Myakka Head
* Until Friday afternoon.
* At 08 AM Thursday the stage was 13.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by tomorrow late morning.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Private road and bridge 1 mile downstream flood. 
  Agricultural, rural Kibler area begins to flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 13.0 feet on Sep 29 
  1979.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Manatee
 Myakka Head  11.0  13.0  Thu 08 AM  11.3    9.3    7.7    6.6    5.9


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8217 2743 8224 2745 8233 2752 8233
 2751 8224 2753 8224                  



$$
Norman
103 
WGUS82 KTBW 140220
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
1020 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...

  Manatee River Near Myakka Head 

.Heavy rain along the Manatee River near Myakka
Head has caused the river to go into minor flood 
stage. The river is expected to get below flood 
stage by Friday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The latest 
forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can follow NWSTampaBay on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC081-142136-
/O.CON.KTBW.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170714T2136Z/
/MKHF1.2.ER.170711T0545Z.170712T0915Z.170714T1536Z.NO/
1020 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Manatee River Near Myakka Head
* Until Friday afternoon.
* At 09 PM Thursday the stage was 11.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river is expected to fall below flood stage by tomorrow late morning.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Private road and bridge 1 mile downstream flood. 
  Agricultural, rural Kibler area begins to flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.9 feet on Jul 10 1976.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY TIME    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue

Manatee
 Myakka Head  11.0  11.8  Thu 09 PM  11.3    9.2    7.5    6.4    5.7


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8217 2743 8224 2745 8233 2752 8233
 2751 8224 2753 8224                  



$$
029 
WGUS82 KTBW 141241
FLSTBW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
841 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Florida... 

  Manatee River Near Myakka Head 

.Decreasing rainfall over the Manatee River basin has caused the waters
near Myakka Head to recede below flood stage. We will continue to closely
monitor the water level for any rising waters with afternoon showers
and storms. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather Radio. The latest 
forecasts can also be found on weather.gov/tampabay. You can follow NWSTampaBay 
on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

&&

FLC081-141311-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170714T2136Z/
/MKHF1.2.ER.170711T0545Z.170712T0915Z.170714T0750Z.NO/
841 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Manatee River Near Myakka Head.
* At 8 AM Friday the stage was 10.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Impact...at 11.0 feet...Private road and bridge 1 mile downstream flood. 
  Agricultural, rural Kibler area begins to flood.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.0 feet on Jul 15 2013.

&&


               FLD        OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION       STG   STG  DAY  TIME   Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue    

Manatee
 Myakka Head  11.0  10.5  Fri 08 AM   8.6    7.2    6.3    5.7    


&&


LAT...LON 2746 8217 2743 8224 2745 8233 2752 8233
 2751 8224 2753 8224                  



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jul 10, 8:28 PM EDT, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 8:28 PM EDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
828 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.UPDATE...
This afternoon and evening were rather active compared to the last
few days. We received multiple reports of wind gusts in the 40-60 mph
range as a few of the strongest cells moved through Hillsborough
County into Tampa Bay and then Pinellas County. Also received several
hail reports and a few reports of tree branches downed north of
Tampa Bay. Most of the thunderstorm activity is now north of our
forecast area, although a few lightning strikes are still noted
across parts of the Nature Coast. Just some light rain is lingering
in a few spots elsewhere, but expect everything to continue
diminishing over the next couple of hours. Overall, a quiet overnight
period is anticipated over land, but similar to the last several
mornings, scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf can be
expected. The ongoing forecast remains largely on track, with just
some minor tweaks to PoPs made based on current radar trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
Some light rain will continue to be possible for KTPA and KPIE over
the next hour or two, with dry conditions elsewhere. Expect a dry
overnight period, with VFR conditions prevailing. Thunderstorm
chances begin to increase around 16-18Z Tuesday afternoon, with VCTS
in the forecast continuing through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Atlantic will continue to extend across the
region through the next several days, with light winds and seas
expected with no headlines. Winds will turn onshore each afternoon
with the sea breeze. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each
day, with increasing winds and seas in the vicinity.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  91  77  92 /  20  50  30  30
FMY  75  92  76  92 /  10  50  20  40
GIF  75  92  75  93 /  10  40  20  50
SRQ  76  91  76  91 /  20  40  30  30
BKV  74  92  73  93 /  30  50  30  30
SPG  79  90  79  92 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...05/Carlisle
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 5:30 AM EDT, 16 hours 21 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
530 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-110000-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
530 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico early this morning will translate inland late this morning
along the Nature Coast and then during the afternoon across the
rest of the area. The storms will gradually come to end during the
evening. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains and frequent deadly
lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
An increasing easterly flow will setup across the region during
the work week as the ridge axis moves north of the area. Scattered
to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to
develop and move westward each day with the highest rain chances
along the coastal counties. Over the upcoming weekend the ridge
axis will settle into central Florida with lighter winds across
the area. More scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
with the highest rain chances shifting to inland areas.
Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong
gusty winds...locally heavy rains and frequent deadly lightning
strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

PRC

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 6:05 PM EDT, 3 hours 46 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
605 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

FLZ050-149-151-249-251-102245-
Inland Pasco-Coastal Hillsborough-Pinellas-Inland
Hillsborough-Coastal Pasco-
605 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PASCO...PINELLAS AND
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...

At 604 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over St.
Petersburg, through Tampa, and north into Pasco County, moving north
at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tampa, Clearwater, Largo, Pinellas Park, Temple Terrace, Seminole,
New Port Richey, Zephyrhills, Downtown Saint Petersburg, Hudson, Fort
Desoto Park, Holiday, Saint Petersburg, Lutz, St. Petersburg, St.
Pete Beach, St. Leo, Palm Harbor, New Port Richey East and
Zephyrhills South.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 2813 8288 2846 8272 2843 8267 2843 8262
      2828 8206 2826 8211 2823 8211 2756 8274
      2788 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 181DEG 18KT 2817 8245

TBW
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 6:16 PM EDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
616 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

FLZ043-052-248-249-102245-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Sumter-Polk-
616 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SUMTER...
NORTHEASTERN PASCO...SOUTHEASTERN HERNANDO AND NORTHWESTERN POLK
COUNTIES...

At 616 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Bushnell to near St. Leo to near
Zephyrhills. Movement was northwest at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dade City, Bushnell, St. Leo, Hill n Dale, Ridge Manor, San Antonio,
Center Hill, Webster, Saint Leo, Darby, Rockridge, Withla,
Adamsville, Tarrytown, Sumterville, Blanton, Lacoochee, Dade City
North, Croom and Masaryktown.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 2886 8195 2835 8196 2835 8186 2836 8185
      2836 8179 2815 8203 2824 8211 2828 8207
      2841 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 122DEG 10KT 2864 8211 2840 8230 2830 8211

TBW
Local storm report, Jul 10, 6:17 PM EDT, 3 hours 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
617 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE RUSKIN            27.71N 82.41W
07/10/2017  M4.32 INCH       HILLSBOROUGH       FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            AT NWS RUSKIN.

&&

NOAH
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 6:49 PM EDT, 3 hours 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
649 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

FLZ043-242-248-102315-
Inland Hernando-Inland Citrus-Sumter-
649 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CITRUS...
SUMTER AND NORTHEASTERN HERNANDO COUNTIES...

At 649 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Mascotte to near
Hill n Dale. Movement was north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wildwood, Bushnell, Hill n Dale, Inverness Highlands South, Lake
Panasoffkee, Ridge Manor, Center Hill, Webster, Coleman, Suburban
Acres, Adamsville, Wahoo, Tarrytown, Withlapopka Isle, Sumterville,
Heatherwood, Nobleton, Floral City, Istachatta and Croom.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 2853 8196 2850 8232 2876 8239 2892 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 186DEG 14KT 2867 8195 2855 8228

TBW
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 7:15 PM EDT, 2 hours 36 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
715 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

FLZ043-142-148-242-248-110000-
Coastal Citrus-Inland Hernando-Coastal Hernando-Inland Citrus-Sumter-
715 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CITRUS...SUMTER AND
NORTHWESTERN HERNANDO COUNTIES...

At 714 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Fruitland Park to near Weeki Wachee
Gardens. Movement was northwest at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Inverness, Wildwood, Bushnell, Homosassa Springs, Beverly Hills,
Inverness Airport, Crystal River Airport, Black Diamond, Homosassa,
Inverness Highlands South, Inverness Highlands North, North Weeki
Wachee, Weeki Wachee Gardens, Hernando, Sugarmill Woods, Lake
Panasoffkee, Coleman, Arbor Lakes, Royal Highlands and Lecanto.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 2903 8243 2900 8236 2896 8231 2896 8196
      2867 8196 2853 8267 2860 8273 2865 8276
      2894 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 154DEG 11KT 2883 8194 2860 8263

TBW
Local storm report, Jul 10, 7:21 PM EDT, 2 hours 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
721 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             NEW TAMPA               28.12N 82.37W
07/10/2017  E1.25 INCH       HILLSBOROUGH       FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIEWER PHOTO SENT TO MEDIA PARTNER SUGGESTS 1 TO 1.25
            INCH HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

NOAH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 11, 1:59 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementTBWPinellas31 min
Jul 11, 2:34 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementTBWPasco41 min
Jul 11, 3:13 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningTBW47 min
Jul 11, 4:26 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementTBWSarasota34 min
Jul 11, 4:38 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementTBWHighlands37 min
Jul 11, 5:25 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementTBWLee35 min
Jul 11, 5:28 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementTBWDeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Hillsborough, Manatee47 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Florida, 2017Every river flood warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.