Red Flag Warning 22, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
235 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM (Rest of today - Saturday)...
Aloft early this afternoon a ridge stretched from Mexico to
the Upper Great Lakes while a low on the New England coast
troughed down the eastern seaboard to the GA/FL line. At the
surface a frontal boundary arced from the Upper Midwest
down through the southern plains then back up through the
central Rockies to the Great Basin. High pressure centered
in the northeast Gulf of Mexico sprawled across the
remainder of the Gulf waters and up into the Deep South. An
old frontal boundary south of the Florida Keys extended
across the northern Bahamas to the open Atlantic.

Going into the weekend - The western upper ridge shifts eastward...
from the central Gulf of Mexico to the lower Great Lakes...with a
warm stable and dry west to northwest flow above the area. Model
PWAT values range from about 0.5 inches to just under 1.5 inches...
with the highest amounts confined to the far south. The
Gulf surface high continues and merges with an Atlantic
ridges that builds westward Sat...keeping light flow level
flow in place and dominated by afternoon sea breezes.

The drier air will allow one more coolish night with temperatures
near to just below normal. Clear to mostly clear skies Sat along the
ridge aloft will permits the highs to be around or above normal.
But coastal locations a bit lower than inland due to the sea breeze.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night - Friday)...
Upper level ridging over the eastern Gulf and surface high pressure
from the western Atlantic extending west into the eastern Gulf at
the start of the period will provide pleasant dry weather across the
entire forecast area through the remainder of the weekend and into
Memorial day with mainly clear skies, very warm temperatures, and a
light westerly wind flow. Overnight low temperatures will range from
the upper 60s over inland locations, to the lower 70s along the
coast, while daytime highs on Sunday and Monday will climb into the
upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast, and mid to upper 90s inland.

During late Monday and continuing through Friday the upper level
ridge will shift east into the Atlantic and will become aligned
southwest to northeast from the southern Florida peninsula into the
western Atlantic, as the surface high sets up from the western
Atlantic west across the south central peninsula through Tuesday,
before drifting north to be across the north-central peninsula
Wednesday through Friday with a light southeast wind flow developing.

Similar to yesterday models show a slow increase in moisture through
the period which will lead to increasing chances (Pops 20 to 30
percent on Tuesday, then 30-50 percent Wednesday through Friday) for
diurnal sea breeze driven showers and thunderstorms across the
region each day during the afternoon and early evening hours with
the highest rain chances expected to be over inland sections each
afternoon as the east and west coast sea breeze boundaries move
inland.

Temperatures will run above normal through the period with overnight
lows generally in the lower to mid 70s, with daytime highs climbing
into the upper 80s to around 90 along

&&

.AVIATION...
26/18Z-27/18Z. VFR. SKC...although southern terminals may see a FEW
CU/SC in the afternoon. Light variable/NE winds...except shifting to
westerly at modest speeds during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Relaxed high pressure continues across the waters through midweek
with light winds and an onshore shift during afternoon sea breezes.
A moistening airmass will introduce some showers and thunderstorms
later in the period...resulting in briefly higher winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure sprawls across the state for the next few days. This
keeps dry air in place through Sat with several counties seeing long
durations of low RH. However currently only Polk County has
a critically high ERC values and they have Fire Weather Watch
in place for Sat. A slow increase in humidity begins with no
low RH concerns expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  69  87  73  89 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  71  93  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  66  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  68  87  71  87 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  58  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  72  86  74  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through
     Saturday evening for Polk.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
525 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-262130-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
525 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms are expected for
Tuesday through Thursday. Thunderstorms will be capable of
producing strong gusty winds...locally heavy rains...and frequent
deadly lightning strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Hubbard