Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
259 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SHORT TERM (Rest of today - Friday)...
An upper level ridge...with an axis along the Gulf coast
and extending northeastward over the Atlantic continues
overnight then begins to relax and shift east during late
Fri. At the surface high pressure along 70 west Longitude
slowly sinks south... while ridging back west with an axis
that hangs close to 30 North Latitude.

Model PWAT values run generally around 0.75 inches. However...
a weak inverted trough on the south side of the surface
ridge with a swath of 1 to 1.5 inches of PWAT is crossing
south FL this after-noon and will support low rain chances
later this afternoon and early evening...along with some
brief cloudiness. Other wise skies will be rain free and
clear to mostly clear. Temperatures run near normal tonight
with highs near to a couple of degrees above on Fri.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Friday Night-Thursday)...
Over the weekend a mid/upper level disturbance over the southern
Gulf of Mexico will get pulled northeastward ahead of a deepening
trough moving across the eastern United States. This will bring a
batch of deeper moisture northward into the region leading to an
increase in clouds and few showers Saturday afternoon and evening
mainly south of Interstate 4. During Saturday night and Sunday this
moisture will spread across the rest of the area with a chance of
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, especially over inland
areas Sunday afternoon. Sunday night into Monday the trough axis and
associated surface cold front will approach and move through the
region bringing a chance of some more showers and thunderstorms. By
Tuesday high pressure will be building in from the north helping to
clear skies. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal
through Sunday night, then briefly a couple of degrees below normal
Monday, before returning to near normal values for Tuesday, and a
few degrees above normal Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
20/18Z-21/18Z. VFR conditions dominate with mainly FEW-SCT
CU/CI although expect OCNL BKN VFR CIGS in the afternoon.
Winds E to ESE...with a few gusts at southern terminals.
However TPA/PIE/SRQ winds are slightly lighter and will
shift to onshore this afternoon. There may be a few SHRA
near PGD/FMY/RSW but are unlikely to impact these terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure across the waters will keep east and southeast
winds with sea breezes through most of the weekend. a front
moves through late Sun and early Mon with some showers and
a wind shift to northwesterly Mon morning. Winds and seas
remain below headline criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure ridges over the area through most of the
weekend with stable and generally dry conditions. Humidity
values will briefly drop below 35 percent on Friday and
perhaps Saturday with ERC values remaining below 37 EXCEPT
in for Hernando and Manatee which may need a Red Flag
warning. A front comes through late Sun or early Mon with
some showers and a wind shift.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  67  85  68  85 /  10   0   0  10
FMY  64  87  66  87 /  10   0   0  30
GIF  63  88  64  89 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  65  83  65  83 /  10   0   0  20
BKV  59  88  59  88 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  69  84  69  85 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
515 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-202115-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
515 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected Sunday through Monday with a cold
front. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong gusty
winds...locally heavy rains...and frequent deadly lightning
strikes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Hubbard