Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
822 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Complex and stormy pattern to remain over the region
through the remainder of the weekend. Upper energy rotating
overhead to combine with nearly stalled surface tropical
wave around the I-4 corridor into the E Gulf this
afternoon/evening/Sunday. Moist and unstable environment for
periods of showers and thunderstorms wrapping over the area
around the low level convergence to continue the flood
threat especially in SW FL.

Along area beaches, expect the eastward moving long period
swells from Harvey, now in the east central Gulf to move
into E Gulf waters and along area beaches overnight and Sunday
combining with local wind waves to create rough surf and
dangerous rip currents through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Intermittent and scattered SHRA/TSRA continue to move around
the area and terminals this evening with locally brief MVFR-
IFR conditions until about 02Z. Then expect the activity to
wane expect in SW FL when activity could linger through the
night. SCattered to numerous storms again Sunday as well.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 234 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight-Sunday)...
A trough of low pressure will continue to drape across the
state through Sunday morning. The low center will then start
to push offshore of the NE FL coast by Sunday afternoon.
Deep moisture and continued SW flow across the southern half
of the area will keep numerous to widespread showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms in place there, with scattered to
numerous rain chances across the northern half of the area.
The Flood Watch will continue across Charlotte and Lee
Counties through Sunday evening. Temperatures will continue
to be in the mid 70s to around 80 for lows, and in the mid
to upper 80s for highs.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night-Saturday)...
A wet weather pattern to continue across the forecast area
through the upcoming week. Weak low pressure offshore the
southeast U.S. coast at the start of the period with a
trailing trough axis extending southwest across the central
Florida peninsula combined with abundant tropical moisture
(PW's in the 2.2 to 2.4 inch range) will keep rain chances
elevated across the area through Monday night with some
locally heavy rainfall possible, which may cause localized
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas especially in
areas which have received heavy rainfall amounts during the
last few days.

On Tuesday the aforementioned low pressure area will lift
slowly northeast up along the mid Atlantic coast. Models
differ on how this system will evolve but it could possibly
become tropical in nature and at the moment the National
Hurricane Center is giving this system a 50 percent chance
of tropical development during the next five days. (For
additional information on this system see the latest
tropical weather outlook being issued by the National
Hurricane Center in Miami) Deep tropical moisture combined
with the lingering trough axis will keep rain chances high
across the region with pops in the 40 to 60 percent range
expected areawide.

During Wednesday through Saturday the remnant frontal trough
will wash out as high pressure surface and aloft re-
establishes itself across the region from the Atlantic with
a more typical summertime weather pattern returning to the
area with scattered to numerous diurnal sea breeze driven
showers and thunderstorms (Pops in the 40 to 60 percent)
expected each day during the afternoon and evening hours.

Low temperatures will continue to run above normal through
the period with overnight lows in the mid 70s inland
areas, and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast, while
daytime highs run close to normal with highs topping out
near 90 along the coast, and lower 90s inland.

MARINE...
Low pressure will remain over the area through Sunday. The
low pressure center will then move off of the NE FL coast
and gradually lift off to the NE over the Atlantic as high
pressure builds over the coastal waters. Rainy conditions
will remain in place through at least Sunday, with winds and
seas higher near the storms.

FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  87  77  87 /  70  70  40  50
FMY  76  85  76  88 /  70  70  50  70
GIF  75  86  75  88 /  50  80  40  60
SRQ  78  85  78  87 /  70  70  50  60
BKV  75  88  75  89 /  60  70  40  40
SPG  78  86  78  87 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Lee-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...25/Davis
UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
508 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-262115-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
508 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Rain with embedded thunderstorms are ongoing across southwest
Florida and the adjacent coastal waters early this morning. With
an area of low pressure moving slowly northeastward across the
peninsula, expect periods of rain and thunderstorms through the
day. Some of these storms will be capable of producing gusty
winds, locally heavy rains, and frequent lightning strikes.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible, along with
some locally higher amounts and this could result in some minor
flooding.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Onshore flow and increasing wave action will produce dangerous
rip currents along area beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
Sunday as an area of low pressure moves slowly across the state. A
more typical summertime pattern returns for the rest of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Carlisle