Tornado Warning 78, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
136 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...

Scattered showers continue to move northward across our western
areas, but heaviest rain will likely remain west of our terminals.
Still, very brief visibility reductions in heavier showers cannot
be ruled out at DHN and ECP. Also, broken low clouds should
continue to produce MVFR cigs at ECP, and possibly at DHN through
the early morning hours. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
from mid-morning through the end of the period at all terminals as
chances of showers continue to decrease through the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [814 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Heavy rain is clearing out northwest zones at this hour, leaving
light showers across the region. The exit of the heavy rain has
effectively ended the flash flooding threat across the region this
afternoon and the watch has been cancelled. In general, 2 to 4
inches of rain fell across a widespread area of the Florida
Panhandle and portions of southeastern Alabama, with higher local
amounts up to 6 inches in and around the Panama City area. Expect
light showers to continue to decrease in coverage through the
remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Widespread cloud
cover and abundant moisture in place will limit diurnal swings
once again overnight, with lows generally remaining in the mid 70s
across the region.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

TS Cindy will be inland near the TX/LA border at the start of the
period allowing the subtropical ridge to our east to reassert itself
across the forecast area. That will mean a return to drier weather
with PoPs only in the 20-30% range through the short term. This will
allow max temps to get back closer to normal, within a few degrees
of 90 both days. Heat indices will peak around 100. Overnight lows
will remain in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The subtropical ridge to our east will pump seasonally humid air
into our region through Monday. Look for highs around 90 and lows in
the mid 70s. A cold front will then approach from the northwest and
struggle to make it across the area. However, it does look like it
will eventually make it past us and bring in a brief respite from
the humidity on Tuesday and Wednesday with dew points in the 60s on
those days. This will also knock temps down a bit with highs in the
upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s. There will be scattered
thunderstorms each day.

.MARINE...

Tropical Storm Cindy is moving northwest toward the coast of western
Louisiana and eastern Texas. Over the northeast Gulf of Mexico,
winds have dropped to marginal advisory criteria, but seas are still
high. As Cindy turns northward, we will see the gradient across our
western waters increase again overnight. Winds will drop below
criteria from east to west on Thursday, but it will take until
Friday morning before seas drop below advisory thresholds across the
western waters. Light winds and low seas are expected from the
weekend into early next week.

The high surf advisor will remain in effect until Friday morning
from Gulf County westward. The high risk for rip currents may
continue into the weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...

Additional rainfall totals should be less than an inch in most
areas, so we can now look forward to any river impacts. As of now,
the only main stem river that could reach flood stage is the
lower Choctawhatchee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   89  73  90  71  91 /  20  10  20  10  20
Panama City   85  78  86  77  86 /  30  10  20  10  20
Dothan        87  74  90  74  89 /  40  20  20  10  40
Albany        90  74  91  75  90 /  30  10  20  10  40
Valdosta      91  74  91  73  92 /  30  20  30  10  20
Cross City    92  75  90  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  20
Apalachicola  87  79  87  77  87 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Friday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...Barry