Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
319 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 2 pm surface analysis showed a weakening warm front near the FL-
AL and FL-GA borders, with scattered thunderstorms developing across
our forecast area. A few of these storms have been strong to severe
(based on radar data). Most of the rain will diminish by this
evening, but there will be enough moisture, CAPE, and Q-G forcing to
support scattered showers and storms across the FL Panhandle and
southeast AL overnight. Low temperatures will be in the 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

At 500 mb, our forecast area will be situated between a slowly
weakening, positive-tilt trough to our west and a strong high
pressure system over the western Atlantic. The mean 1000-700 wind
between these two features will be southwest at 10 to 15 knots,
which is typically associated with PoPs of 50% or greater across
much of our forecast area this time of year. This is close to what
the NWP guidance consensus is forecasting, except the consensus
shows most of the rain occurring west of Tallahassee and Valdosta on
Thursday. The numerical guidance had a similar forecast for today
and it has not verified well, so we are going a little higher than
the consensus PoP/QPF for Thursday over our eastern zones. Otherwise
we expect numerous thunderstorms across most of our region on
Friday. While the peak PoPs will be during the daytime (over
land), there will be enough conditional instability, deep-layer
moisture, and Q-G forcing to support at least some rain chances
overnight as well. Temperatures will be near average, with lows in
the 70s and highs in the mid 80s to around 90.

There is a low-end chance for damaging wind gusts or even a brief
tornado on Thursday, similar to what we've observed this afternoon.
This is based on forecast MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg, 0-6km
bulk shear values near 30 kt, and 0-1km bulk shear values around 15
kt.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A weak upper trough will move slowly eastward across our forecast
area this weekend, then our region will be under the northwest
periphery of the Bermuda ridge early next week. A deeper long
wave trough will begin to develop over the eastern CONUS by mid
week. The above-normal PoPs expected on Saturday will return to
near average by Sunday, and continue through Tuesday. Higher PoPs
are expected Wednesday as a trough approaches. Temperatures will
be near average.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

Scattered SHRA and TSRA continue across the FL panhandle, SE AL
and SW GA at this hour, affecting TLH, ECP and DHN. Expect
conditions to be reduced to MVFR/IFR underneath any storms,
including gusty and erratic winds with the strongest activity.
Otherwise, low end VFR conditions at all TAF sites, with CIGs
remaining marginal VFR/MVFR through the afternoon at most TAF
sites. SCT SHRA/TSRA will be possible tonight near ECP and DHN.

&&

.MARINE...

Relatively large swells generated by Tropical Storm Harvey in the
northwest Gulf of Mexico will be at advisory levels across the
western portions of our forecast area through Thursday morning. Seas
will begin to diminish Thursday afternoon. Moderate south winds,
highest west of Apalachicola, will diminish Thursday night, and
remain light through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The high (but not abnormally high) PWAT values and warm rain
processes will be conducive for high rain rates. However, there
doesn't appear to be a well-defined surface feature, at least on
the synoptic scale, to focus persistent heavy rain. A mesoscale
boundary could do this, but we have little skill in forecasting
such features. Thus we do not anticipate widespread flooding, but
a low threat of flooding will persist through this weekend. Due
to the localized nature of the heavy rain we don't expect
significant river flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  90  75  88  73 /  20  40  30  60  40
Panama City   79  86  78  85  74 /  40  50  40  50  40
Dothan        74  87  74  87  69 /  50  70  40  50  30
Albany        73  90  74  88  71 /  30  60  30  60  30
Valdosta      72  91  73  88  72 /  20  40  20  60  40
Cross City    74  92  75  88  74 /  20  20  20  60  60
Apalachicola  79  88  78  87  75 /  20  40  30  60  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Fournier

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
511 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MT PLEASANT             30.66N 84.69W
08/30/2017                   GADSDEN            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            1 TREE DOWN.

&&

BARRY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
519 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

FLZ016-GAZ156-302200-
Gadsden FL-Decatur GA-
519 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GADSDEN AND
SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 518 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Quincy, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Quincy, Havana, Gretna, Attapulgus, Freemont, Littman, Douglas City,
Darsey, Florence, Concord, Scotland, Jamieson, Laingkat, Santa Clara,
Shady Rest, Amsterdam, Quincy Airport, Branchville, Hinson and
Dogtown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 8439 3072 8438 3069 8438 3069 8436
      3062 8432 3060 8433 3049 8456 3063 8469
      3082 8449
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 238DEG 10KT 3062 8458

30-PULLIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
519 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

GAZ131-148-302145-
Berrien GA-Irwin GA-
519 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN IRWIN AND
NORTHEASTERN BERRIEN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 516 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Alapaha, or 9 miles north of Nashville,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alapaha, Glory and Bannockburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3122 8323 3137 8334 3157 8306 3155 8307
      3148 8311 3147 8314 3146 8315 3144 8314
      3140 8314 3139 8312 3136 8310 3134 8307
      3132 8306 3130 8306 3129 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 237DEG 19KT 3134 8322

30-PULLIN

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