Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
330 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

This morning's cloud cover has eroded enough for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop across the area this afternoon. A
tropical airmass is in place with PWAT values near 2 inches, and a
weak front bisects the area. Several CAMs show scattered convection
lingering into the first half of the overnight hours, so PoPs were
maintained at 50% across the northeast half of the area through 06z.
Locally heavy downpours and lightning are the main threats with the
tropical airmass in place. Overnight lows are generally expected to
be in the low to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The upper level trough in place over the eastern CONUS will
deamplify and be replaced with ridging aloft. As it does, the front
stretched across the area will regress northward and drift off to
the east. Our forecast area will remain situated in a warm, moist
environment with low level flow from the south. Thus chances for
showers and thunderstorms will stay in the 40-60% range through the
rest of the work week. Max temperatures will be in the upper 80s to
low 90s and min temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Deep layer ridging will build in aloft of the northern Gulf over the
weekend. Low level flow from the southwest will mean the afternoon
seabreeze fronts will be our main forcing. PoPs will be near normal
for late summer at 40-50%. Highs will still be in the upper 80s to
low 90s and lows stay mostly in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area
through the evening hours. Brief visibility reductions are
possible in heavier showers and storms. Outside of convection, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside of scattered showers and thunderstorms, light winds and
low seas will prevail through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Transport winds will be very light the next few days resulting in
low afternoon dispersion values. Otherwise, there are no other fire
weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread flooding is not expected for the next several days.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon however may
produce localized nuisance flooding,k such as ponding of water on
roadways.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  91  73  91  73 /  50  40  30  40  20
Panama City   77  87  77  87  77 /  10  30  10  20  20
Dothan        74  90  73  90  74 /  40  50  30  40  20
Albany        74  90  75  90  74 /  50  50  40  40  20
Valdosta      73  90  73  90  73 /  50  40  40  40  30
Cross City    73  91  74  91  73 /  40  30  30  40  20
Apalachicola  75  89  76  89  75 /  10  20  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Moore

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
238 PM CDT WED AUG 9 2017

FLZ010-012-092000-
Inland Bay FL-Washington FL-
238 PM CDT WED AUG 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BAY AND SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 238 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm 17 miles northeast of Lynn Haven, moving north at
10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nixon, Gainer Spring, Betts, Bennett, Youngstown, Fountain, Porter
Lake, Singer Road and Saunders.

LAT...LON 3056 8566 3061 8544 3057 8543 3057 8538
      3033 8539 3031 8546 3037 8554
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 163DEG 9KT 3044 8546

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
359 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2017

GAZ145-146-092030-
Colquitt GA-Mitchell GA-
359 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND
NORTHWESTERN COLQUITT COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 359 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm near Doerun, or 12 miles east of Camilla, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Moultrie, Norman Park, Doerun, Riverside, Schley, Funston, Sale City,
Ticknor, Minnesota, Center Hill, Cotton, Laney, Sigsbee, Poplar Arbor
Church, Hartsfield, New Elm, Bay and Hinsonton.

LAT...LON 3127 8367 3106 8399 3125 8418 3133 8402
      3133 8376 3132 8376 3132 8372 3133 8372
      3133 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 320DEG 7KT 3128 8399

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
409 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2017

FLZ029-034-092045-
Inland Dixie FL-Lafayette FL-
409 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE AND NORTHERN
DIXIE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 409 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm 9 miles north of Cross City. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cooks Hammock, Hines, Jonesboro, Hatch Bend, Fletcher, Guaranto
Springs, Fletcher Springs and Clara.

LAT...LON 2983 8289 2981 8293 2980 8292 2976 8295
      2975 8294 2973 8295 2972 8294 2972 8296
      2970 8294 2970 8296 2965 8296 2971 8334
      2974 8335 2978 8332 2982 8332 2982 8334
      2994 8330 2988 8287
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 222DEG 3KT 2978 8312

42-DVD