Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
301 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An upper level shortwave near the Georgia coast will persist through
the near term. An MCV rotating over southeast Georgia this afternoon
will help to generate scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms particularly in a stretch from TLH to VLD (higher
chances near VLD). Convection will be on a diminishing trend after
00z with the better chances (30-40%) remaining across the eastern
portion of the CWA. For the second half of tonight, PoPs will
decrease to about 20 percent with the focus still across the eastern
portion of the CWA, but with the addition of the coastal areas. Lows
overnight will only drop into the mid 70s inland to upper 70s along
the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The weak upper low over the southeast will continue to influence
rain chances for Thursday. PoPs will be in the 30-50% range with
the highest in south Georgia and the Big Bend. By Friday upper
level flow becomes more zonal ahead of the approaching trough.
Friday PoPs will be slightly lower 20-40%. Highs will be in the
lower 90s with warmer temps to the west where rain chances are
lower.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The trough over the eastern US will shift east through the period.
It will bring a weak front that will increase shower and
thunderstorm chances for the weekend. Drier air will arrive by late
Sunday before rain chances increase again mid week. PoPs will
generally be 30-60% with the highest chances in the Big Bend. Highs
will be in the upper 80s with lows in the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions are expected across the TAF sites this afternoon,
with the exception being in any thunderstorm that moves over a TAF
site. SHRA and TSRA is expected this afternoon with the better
chances at TLH and VLD. Convection will diminish this evening.
MVFR fog and even a site or two with LIFR cigs will be possible in
the morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will be westerly 5 to 10 knots through Thursday then will
increase to 15 knots through the weekend. Seas will be 3 feet or
less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the
next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

All area rivers are below flood stage. A few heavy showers and
thunderstorms could lead to brief localized flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  91  75  93  76 /  30  40  20  40  10
Panama City   77  90  78  90  80 /  20  30  20  20  10
Dothan        74  93  74  94  75 /  20  30  10  20  20
Albany        74  90  74  94  76 /  20  30  10  20  20
Valdosta      73  89  74  92  74 /  40  50  30  30  10
Cross City    74  90  74  90  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
Apalachicola  76  89  77  90  79 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
456 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

FLZ010-011-262245-
Jackson FL-Washington FL-
456 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 456 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm 9 miles southeast of Graceville, moving southwest
at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chipley, Graceville, Cottondale, Alford, Campbellton, Richter
Crossroads, Jacob City, Steele City, Cottondale Airport, Jacobs,
Bahoma, Ellaville and Sills.

LAT...LON 3100 8544 3100 8535 3096 8522 3069 8539
      3081 8560 3083 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 038DEG 11KT 3090 8536

11-MOORE

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
539 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

ALZ068-FLZ009-262330-
Geneva AL-Holmes FL-
539 PM CDT WED JUL 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GENEVA AND NORTH CENTRAL
HOLMES COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 538 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm over Hartford, or 10 miles south of Daleville,
moving south at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hartford, Slocomb, Esto, Noma, Black, Kellys Crossroads, High Bluff,
Highfalls, Dundee, Bald Hill, Hendrix Crossroad, Smith Crossroads,
Thurston and Bailey Crossroad.

LAT...LON 3120 8577 3119 8558 3098 8562 3098 8584
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 012DEG 13KT 3113 8570

11-MOORE