Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
304 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Deep layer ridging will prevail across the region through today.
Sounding data, satellite imagery, and model data depict a wedge of
dry air over the Tri-State region this morning. This area of dry air
aloft will move west across the region through the early afternoon
and be replaced from the southeast by a plume of tropical moisture.
Showers and storms are developing along the leading edge of this
plume where outflow from convection across the Peninsula is moving
through the northeast Gulf. Scattered showers and storms will be
possible this morning along the Forgotten Coast and possibly the
panhandle coast. Otherwise, the ESE steering flow would favor a
slightly later start to seabreeze activity than the more southerly
regimes. It would also favor convection along the Atlantic seabreeze
rather than the Gulf seabreeze spreading inland through the day. So,
expect a scattering of storms across the Panhandle and western Big
Bend later this afternoon, with the bulk of the rain late in the
afternoon across the central and eastern Big Bend and up into south-
central Georgia. With forecast lapse rates ~6.2C and wet microburst
indicators on the low-end of severe thresholds, a few of the
strongest storms today could have the potential for damaging winds.
Highs will near the mid 90s, with heat indices nearing 100 degrees.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The western extent of the Bermuda Ridge will build across our
forecast area Friday, extending from the surface to the upper
levels. Mid-layer drying/subsidence associated with this feature
will limit the coverage of deep moist convection across our region,
with the greatest chance of rain across the FL Panhandle (30-40%
PoP) where there will still be adequate moisture. Elsewhere PoPs
will be 20% or less. An upper trough will begin to develop across
much of the eastern CONUS Saturday and Saturday night, and a
weakening surface cold front will stall across north-central GA
and AL. While we don't expect any synoptic scale forcing from the
trough, the prevailing wind field we be altered in such a way as
to increase deep-layer moisture somewhat across our region, and
shift the sea breeze circulation so that the rain chances will be
near average (30-40%) and fairly evenly distributed across the
area. It will be warm this weekend, with high temperatures in the
mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

A mean deep-layer trough will be the main synoptic feature across
much of the Southeast, with moist southwest winds expected across
our forecast area. This is typically a favorable environment for the
development of scattered to numerous daytime thunderstorms as the
sea breeze fronts form and move inland. PoPs will be in the 30-50%
range (highest south) each afternoon, with slight rain chances
overnight. Temperatures will be near average with lows in the 70s
and highs in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

After reviewing the shower distribution yesterday resulting in
restrictions at DHN, have included MVFR/IFR restrictions at both ABY
and DHN closer to dawn this morning. Confidence is low regarding
these restrictions as models don't depict it occurring but didn't
last night either. Shower and thunderstorm activity today will be
most likely at TLH and VLD late in the afternoon and possibly ABY in
the evening. Outside of restrictions in storms, VFR should prevail
at all sites after 13z.

&&

.MARINE...

With a high pressure ridge near and north of the marine area, the
prevailing winds through Saturday will be east to southeast less
than 15 knots, with seas 3 feet or less. As the ridge becomes
centered over the coastal waters Sunday and Monday, winds will
become south to southwest 5 to 10 knots, with sea 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no fire weather concerns for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A typical summertime pattern is expected, with locally heavy rains
possible, but organized heavy rain that would lead to river flooding
or flash flooding is unlikely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  94  74  94  74 /  20  20  10  40  10
Panama City   77  90  77  90  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
Dothan        75  94  74  94  74 /  20  40  10  30  20
Albany        75  95  75  94  74 /  10  20  10  30  20
Valdosta      74  95  74  95  74 /  10  20  10  30  20
Cross City    74  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  77  90  77  90  77 /  30  40  20  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Weston
HYDROLOGY...Fournier

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
333 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

FLZ019-GAZ160-161-132030-
Madison FL-Lanier GA-Lowndes GA-
333 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND LOWNDES AND LANIER COUNTIES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 331 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles south of Du
Pont to 6 miles north of Luraville. Movement was northwest at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Lake Park, Lakeland, Valdosta, Moody Air Force Base, Meigs,
Dasher, Lee, Naylor, Courthouse, Greenwood, Twin Lakes, Hopewell,
Pinetta, Hansell, Valdosta Regional Airport, I-75 At Exit 5,
Clyattville, Hanson and I-75 At Exit 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3085 8301 3085 8309 3080 8310 3080 8313
      3063 8314 3063 8328 3042 8322 3041 8319
      3039 8317 3035 8321 3026 8324 3026 8335
      3034 8356 3064 8339 3064 8336 3066 8338
      3115 8309 3105 8297 3087 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 131DEG 17KT 3085 8283 3021 8313

38-GODSEY