Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
256 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the afternoon hours and diminish after sunset. Modifying the
12z KTAE sounding for an afternoon T/Td of 91/74 yields SBCAPE
values around 4000 j/kg. Given the high instability and observed 700-
500 mb lapse rates over 6C/km, there could be a couple of strong to
locally severe storms this afternoon, which is typical of summer.
The RAP also supports this thinking with WMSI values forecast near
80 this afternoon. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to
mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Surface and upper level ridging will continue to expand westward
from the western Atlantic. However, models don't show any
significant drying across our region until Wednesday afternoon and
then mainly just our eastern zones. Look for another typical
summertime day Tuesday with PoPs 50% most inland areas and highs in
the lower 90s. For Wednesday, PoPs will be trimmed back to 30% for
most of our GA zones and the SE Big Bend with 40-50% elsewhere.
Highs Wednesday should reach the lower to mid 90s away the coastal
areas.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

As ridging builds further west, we will see additional drying
and warmer temperatures across the area through the remainder of
the work week. Chances for afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms will fall to 20-30% for Thursday and around 30% on
Friday. Rain chances increase to near seasonal levels over the
weekend into Monday as the ridge breaks down and a trough deepens
along the Atlantic seaboard. This will send a surface front our
way along with increasing deep layer moisture. Additionally, both
the EURO and GFS show tropical moisture from the remnant of
Tropical Depression #4 moving into the eastern Gulf and lifting
northward over the weekend. The EURO is more bullish and shows
possible redevelopment of this feature with a closed surface low
approaching SE LA on Sunday. This will be monitored closely.
Highs will remain in the low to mid 90s and lows will be mostly in
the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday]...

Scattered to numerous TSRA will continue through the afternoon
hours and diminish after sunset. Outside of convection, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will dominate through the period with light winds and
low seas. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms
throughout the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A wet seabreeze pattern will remain in place a few more days,
however due to the scattered nature of these storms, no widespread
heavy rainfall is anticipated from these storms. Any flooding
impacts will be isolated to areas of localized heavy rainfall. Our
rivers will remain below flood stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  92  74  94  75 /  10  50  20  50  20
Panama City   78  89  78  90  78 /  20  50  20  40  20
Dothan        73  91  74  93  75 /  20  50  20  50  20
Albany        74  92  74  94  75 /  30  50  30  30  20
Valdosta      73  93  74  94  74 /  20  50  20  30  20
Cross City    73  92  74  93  74 /  20  40  30  30  20
Apalachicola  77  89  77  90  77 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Moore

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
237 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

GAZ161-101900-
Lanier GA-
237 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LANIER COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 237 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm over Lakeland, moving east at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lakeland, Meigs, Courthouse, Greenwood, Hansell, Stockton and
Teeterville.

LAT...LON 3093 8304 3095 8304 3095 8314 3106 8319
      3106 8317 3111 8316 3115 8308 3115 8304
      3117 8304 3119 8300 3119 8298 3113 8297
      3094 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 251DEG 6KT 3103 8309

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
257 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

GAZ131-101930-
Irwin GA-
257 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN IRWIN COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM EDT...

At 257 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm near Ambrose. This storm was nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ocilla, Wray and Osierfield.

LAT...LON 3166 8301 3164 8301 3164 8303 3162 8303
      3162 8304 3161 8305 3161 8306 3155 8306
      3148 8311 3147 8314 3148 8325 3165 8325
      3165 8318 3168 8317 3167 8300 3166 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 242DEG 3KT 3159 8307

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
312 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

GAZ127-129-146-101945-
Tift GA-Worth GA-Colquitt GA-
312 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLQUITT...TIFT AND
SOUTHERN WORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 312 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Doerun to near
Enigma. Movement was north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sylvester, Tifton, Omega, Poulan, Doerun, Ty Ty, Unionville,
Phillipsburg, Sumner, Bridgeboro, Minton, Eldorado, Scooterville,
Anderson City, Tempy, Parkerville, Harding, Pritchetts, Poplar Arbor
Church and Crestwood.

LAT...LON 3156 8347 3155 8342 3151 8339 3149 8338
      3148 8335 3146 8337 3140 8337 3140 8338
      3136 8341 3136 8343 3135 8343 3124 8400
      3146 8400 3146 8398 3148 8399 3154 8399
      3157 8347
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 188DEG 12KT 3131 8397 3146 8339

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
313 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

GAZ144-101945-
Baker GA-
313 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BAKER COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm over Newton, moving north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Hawkinstown, Elmodel Wma and Red Store Crossroads.

LAT...LON 3144 8444 3144 8414 3142 8415 3141 8418
      3139 8418 3139 8420 3136 8420 3136 8422
      3134 8423 3134 8427 3133 8428 3131 8433
      3128 8434 3126 8436 3125 8449 3144 8449
      3144 8447 3145 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 188DEG 12KT 3131 8438

42-DVD

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