Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
248 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered convection is expected through the evening hours.
Modifying the 12z KTAE sounding for an afternoon T/Td of 90/74
yields SBCAPE values in the 3500-4000 j/kg. Given the high
instability, there could be an isolated strong to severe storm this
afternoon. However, the mid-level lapse rates are around 0.5C/km
less than yesterday, and there isn't quite as much mid-level dry air
either. Thus, we don't expect as much strong to severe activity as
yesterday. Activity will gradually diminish after sunset, although
some activity could linger for a couple of hours after sunset
tonight. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will deamplify
allowing the western extension of the Bermuda Ridge to build into
our area. The axis of the surface ridge is forecast to remain just
south of our CWA so a moist onshore flow will continue. MOS and ECAM
guidance show PoPs in the likely (60-70%)range tomorrow. Despite the
ridge building in from the east late Tuesday, we should still see
a fairly typical day for early July with 40-50% PoPs. Highs will
be in the lower 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

As deep layer ridging becomes more established over our area, we
will see below seasonal chances for convection by the end of the
week (20-30%) along with above normal daytime temperatures (mid
90s). Rain chances should increase over the weekend as the upper
ridge breaks down and another trough digs into the region along
with the approach of a surface front/trough from the north.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

Scattered TSRA will continue across the area through the evening
hours. VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of convection.
TSRA may get an early start during the late morning hours on Monday
around ECP and TLH.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will generally remain on the low side as high
pressure will dominate across the northern Gulf. Locally higher
enhancements to winds and seas can be expected in and around
heavier thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Diurnal summertime showers and storms can be expected just about
every afternoon and early evening this period. Brief heavy rain
can also be expected with any slower moving storm. The duration of
the heavy rain should be short enough to preclude widespread
flooding concerns. Area rivers will remain below flood stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  91  74  93  75 /  40  60  20  50  20
Panama City   76  89  77  89  78 /  30  60  20  40  20
Dothan        72  91  73  92  74 /  40  60  20  50  20
Albany        73  92  73  92  74 /  40  60  20  40  20
Valdosta      73  92  73  93  74 /  40  70  20  50  20
Cross City    73  92  73  92  75 /  30  50  20  30  20
Apalachicola  76  90  77  90  77 /  30  40  20  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

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