Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
246 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A shortwave moving south through the Midwest this afternoon will
drop into the eastern CONUS trough resulting in some amplification
through today. At the surface, areas of low pressure associated
with the large-scale trough sit off the Nova Scotia coast and back
into southeast Quebec as well. Troughing extends from this broad
area of low pressure down the Eastern Seaboard and is reinforced
across the Southeast by westerly flow over the Appalachians.
Locally, southwesterly steering flow around 10-15 knots has
favored one of our wetter and earlier seabreeze regimes, though
convection is now primarily dominated by outflow across the Big
Bend and south-central Georgia. With weak synoptic support from
the amplifying upper-level trough, the surface trough, and
ongoing storm outflow, expect numerous showers and thunderstorms
to continue into this evening. Convection is beginning to move
into the Panhandle and southeast Alabama along the surface trough
as of 3 PM EDT. Marginal lapse rates and wet- microburst
indicators, as well as only about 15 knots of deep layer shear
wouldn't suggest an incredibly impressive environment for severe
thunderstorm development, but certainly a few storms with a
damaging wind threat will be possible. Hail doesn't appear to be
favorable with the marginal lapse rates and warm mid- level
temperatures. The SPC has much of the Tri-State region under a
marginal risk for severe storms. PWATs slightly above normal (via
this morning's sounding) could suggest the potential for some
heavier than usual rain in the strongest storms. Expect isolated
areas to have the chance to pick up a quick 1-3 inches. However,
on average rainfall amounts should remain on the order of an inch
or less. Storms should dissipate quickly around sunset, with lows
falling into the low to mid 70s overnight.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

This will be an active period with respect to convective coverage.
The upper level trough will remain over the area as a cold front
edges closer to the region. The low level ridge axis will remain
south of the areas providing a favorable flow regime for sea-breeze
induced convective coverage. PoPs will generally be near or above
average with highest PoPs inland. Max temperatures will be near
normal in the lower 90s, although many will get some relief in the
afternoon from thunderstorm outflow.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Little change is anticipated through Tuesday. After that, the upper
trough will lift northward for a couple of days along with the
surface ridge axis. Pops will drop off 10-20% or so and max temps
will edge upward into the mid 90s once again. Another front will
approach from the northwest towards the weekend inching PoPs upward
once again.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon are likely to
impact DHN, TLH, and ABY. ECP may be done with thunderstorms for
the afternoon, with too much uncertainty to include in the TAF at
VLD. LIFR and gusty winds 30 to 40 knots will be possible in
storms today. By 00z thunderstorm chances will fall dramatically
and most sites should remain VFR through the TAF. The exception
would be if storms slide inland at ECP early tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will generally remain on the low side as high
pressure will dominate across the northern Gulf. Locally higher
enhancements to winds and seas can be expected in and around heavier
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, typical of
summertime, will only produce locally heavy rain. However the
duration of this heavy rain should be short enough to preclude any
significant flooding concerns. Area rivers will remain below flood
stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  91  74  91  74 /  20  50  20  50  10
Panama City   79  88  77  87  77 /  40  40  30  40  20
Dothan        74  91  73  90  73 /  30  60  30  70  10
Albany        74  92  73  91  73 /  20  60  30  60  20
Valdosta      73  93  73  92  73 /  20  50  20  60  20
Cross City    75  91  74  91  74 /  30  40  20  40  20
Apalachicola  78  89  77  89  77 /  30  40  30  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Wool

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