Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
345 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Showers and thunderstorms across western portions of the CWA and the
far eastern Big Bend will diminish after sunset. Expect increasing
clouds overnight with rain chances increasing across eastern
portions of the area, as moisture from a tropical wave in the
southern Gulf of Mexico advects into the area. Any showers that
develop overnight will remain scattered in nature. In western
portions of the area, patchy fog will be possible, particularly in
areas that receive rainfall this afternoon (mainly portions of the
Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama). Overnight lows will remain
in the low 70s as a result of increased cloud coverage.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Thursday]...

At the upper levels, a ridge will be centered across the Atlantic
and southwest U.S with a trough over the central U.S. A weak front
will be sinking southward on Monday. The main focus of this week
will be the tropical disturbance that will be pushing into the
Gulf of Mexico on Monday and there is still large disagreement
between the models with solutions. All interests along the Gulf
need to pay close attention to the system given the large
discrepancies in the track of the system. Regardless of the exact
path though, the system will bring a tropical feed of moisture
into the CWA, increasing rain chances beginning Monday and
persisting through the second half of the week. The main concern
will be the flood risk with this system. While a more westward
track still brings a widespread 2 to 3 inches of rain to the area,
overall the area should be able to handle this amounts - it would
be the isolated higher amounts that were the concern. A more
eastward track though, would indicate higher rainfall amounts and
would indicate the potential for significant flooding. Overall,
the forecast trends towards a more westward solution, thus
limiting rainfall amounts to 2 to 3 inches, but including high
PoPs through much of the week.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Sunday]...

Moisture with the tropical system should begin to decrease for
Friday and high pressure will begin building across the CWA. Will
see a decreasing trend in the PoPs with a return to isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms for the long term. With clouds
and precipitation clearing, high temperatures will return to the
to the upper 80s by the weekend, with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

VFR conditions expected through the period. ISO SHRA/TSRA is
possible near DHN this afternoon, with brief reductions in CIGS &
vsby, as well as gusty winds possible underneath any activity. SHRA
and TSRA will diminish after sunset. Increasing clouds overnight,
with patchy fog possible near DHN late tonight. Scattered SHRA are
not out of the question near VLD overnight, but confidence is
limited at this time.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds will dominate through the next few days with
increasings winds and seas as a tropical disturbance moves into
the Gulf of Mexico. Those with marine interests need to pay close
attention to the forecast with this system, particularly given the
low confidence in the track of the system. The forecast leans
toward a more westward track, however a more eastward track would
result in higher winds and seas than forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected for the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall amounts have trended upward and now expect widespread 2-3
inches of rain across the area through the end of the week and
will likely see an upward trend in these values over the next few
days. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the track of the
tropical disturbance and this will have a large impact on the
rainfall amounts. If the most westward track were to verify, the
area for the most part should be able to handle the lower amounts,
however, if the low is further east and the rainfall amounts are
higher, flooding (including minor to moderate river flooding)
will be possible. This system needs to be monitored closely for
the potential of significant flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  88  74  83  73 /  20  50  50  70  60
Panama City   75  84  75  82  75 /  10  50  70  70  60
Dothan        72  88  73  82  72 /  10  40  40  60  60
Albany        73  89  74  83  72 /  20  40  40  60  60
Valdosta      73  89  74  83  74 /  40  50  50  60  50
Cross City    73  89  74  86  74 /  40  60  60  70  50
Apalachicola  76  85  76  83  77 /  20  50  70  70  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
134 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

ALZ065-181915-
Coffee AL-
134 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COFFEE COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM CDT...

At 134 PM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm 8 miles west of Elba, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elba, Lee, Pine Level, Perry Store, Curtis, Carl Folsom A/p, Lowry
Mill, Camp Humming Hills, Wise Mill, Roeton, Clowers Crossroads,
Basin, Arcus, Jack, Chestnut Grove, County Line, Victoria, Frisco,
Danleys Crossroads and Rhoades.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8619 3154 8614 3162 8615 3162 8590
      3160 8583 3124 8617 3126 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 207DEG 18KT 3141 8622

30-PULLIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
513 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

ALZ067-GAZ121-142-182200-
Henry AL-Clay GA-Early GA-
513 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HENRY...SOUTHWESTERN
CLAY AND NORTHWESTERN EARLY COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT/500 PM CDT/...

At 513 PM EDT/413 PM CDT/, National Weather Service doppler radar
indicated a a strong thunderstorm 7 miles northeast of Headland,
moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Gaines, Blakely, Newville, Haleburg, Bluffton, Shorterville,
Walter F. George Lock And Dam, Barnes, Tumbleton, Hardwickburg,
Zetto, Hayes, Pecan, Colomokee, Dancey, Miller, Ferrell Crossroads,
Early Co A/p, Jones Crossing and Willis Crossroads.

LAT...LON 3168 8497 3163 8494 3162 8494 3162 8493
      3153 8488 3139 8486 3135 8530 3147 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 253DEG 18KT 3142 8524

30-PULLIN