Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
218 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Line of showers and thunderstorms continues to slowly move eastward
at this hour across western portions of the forecast area. As
mentioned in the previous AFD update this evening, the boundary
layer ahead of the line remains primed with the latest meso-analysis
continuing to show 1000 to 2000 J/KG of MU CAPE across much of the
region, with the best instability remaining confined to the Florida
Panhandle coast. Though bulk shear remains marginal at best with
this system, 0 to 1 km shear remains strong, with 25 to 30 knots out
of the south-southeast currently analyzed along and ahead of the
line. These parameters yield a marginal threat for strong to severe
storms, with high wind gusts being the primary threat. Given the low
level shear available, there is a low end chance of brief tornadoes
along the leading edge of the line. Given recent radar trends in the
past several hours, the highest risk for damaging risk and/or any
tornadic activity will exist along the line where any discrete
thunderstorm activity merges into the line, and along of any bowing
segments that develop as the result of any shallow meso-cyclone
development that persists in the line.

While shower and storm activity will continue across the region
through the rest of the overnight, activity will likely weaken as it
moves further east into portions of southcentral Georgia and the
Florida Big Bend, as conditions looks less favorable for severe
storms. In terms of rainfall across the region, the forward speed of
this system will prevent any substantial rainfall accumulation from
occuring across the forecast area. General amounts of 1 to 2 inches
can be expected, with higher rainfall totals occuring across the
Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama and perhaps some portions of
southwest Georgia.

The longevity of this system will throw a wrench in the forecast for
the day Sunday, as this system is expected to make it across nearly
all of the CWA by mid-morning, stabilizing the boundary layer in its
wake. Widespread cloud cover will be slow to clear today, inhibiting
the potential for any substantial destabilization during the day
- thus significantly lowering rain chances across much of the
region this afternoon. The most likely areas for any redevelopment
of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will exist across far
eastern portions of the Big Bend and our south central Georgia
counties, generally along and east of the I-75 corridor. Afternoon
highs will likely run below guidance across the western two-
thirds of the forecast area as a result, limiting temps to the
lower 80s in these locales, with upper 80s to the east.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Any convection that manages to develop during the day Sunday will
likely diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening.
However, the passing shortwave trough to the northwest will break
down the stagnant ridge that has dominated the region's weather for
much of the past week, opening the door for a wet and active first
half of the week. The frontal system associated with the
aforementioned system will stall across the region overnight and
will act as a focal point for convection on Monday, as the boundary
layer will remain abnormally moist region-wide. Forecast PWAT's
generally range in the 1.7" to 2" range Monday and Tuesday across
the region. Though the risk for severe weather is low on these days,
parameters support the risk for an isolated strong storm or two,
with the primary threat being strong wind. The bigger story will be
rainfall amounts across the region, as convection on these days will
be efficient rainfall producers. A general 2 to 4 inches of rain
will be possible through the end of the period.

Given mostly cloudy conditions and high rain chances through the
period, afternoon highs will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s,
with overnight lows remaining in the 70s through the period.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Another wet and active day is expected on Wednesday, before a
deepening upper level trough will sweep across the region,
forcing the stalled front through the region late Wednesday into
Thursday. In the wake of the front, expect drier and cooler
conditions, with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s
to low 60s with dewpoints in the 50s through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

Line of TSRA will push through the TAF sites this morning from
west to east and timing with TAF update is a few hours earlier
than previously thought. Expect gusty winds as the line pushes
through. With the TSRA early this morning, this may help to limit
convection later in the day and thus for now, have left convection
out of the TAFs beyond this initial line.

&&

.MARINE...

Calmer conditions are expected today, with winds remaining around 10
knots out of the southeast with seas of 2 to 3 feet. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected. Winds and seas will increase once again
late Tuesday night as a cold front approaches. Advisory level
conditions will be possible from Tuesday night through Wednesday
night before winds and seas gradually calm once again. Thunderstorm
chances will remain elevated through Wednesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Thus far tonight, general amounts of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall have
occurred with the advancing line of showers and thunderstorms across
the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama. These totals will
likely decrease some as this system moves east and weakens later
tonight and into Sunday morning. Substantial additional rainfall
amounts are not expected during the day Sunday, as any redevelopment
will likely be weak. Wet conditions will resume on Monday.

Widespread average rainfall amounts through Wednesday night could
range from 3" over the southeast Big Bend to 6" over the western
Panhandle with locally higher amounts possible.  Latest ensemble
guidance indicates that these amounts could push our more sensitive
rivers (Shoal, Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, etc.) into Action stage
by Thursday or Friday. These amounts still remain rather uncertain,
so pay attention to changes over the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   83  70  85  70  81 /  40  30  40  20  60
Panama City   80  72  81  73  78 /  60  30  40  40  70
Dothan        80  69  84  68  79 /  50  50  40  70  70
Albany        82  69  85  69  81 /  50  50  30  60  60
Valdosta      88  69  85  69  83 /  60  40  50  30  60
Cross City    88  70  87  71  84 /  40  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  82  73  84  74  82 /  40  30  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Pullin/Harrigan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
237 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017

ALZ067-069-GAZ142-143-210730-
Henry AL-Houston AL-Miller GA-Early GA-
237 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HENRY...HOUSTON...MILLER
AND EARLY COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM EDT/230 AM CDT/...

At 237 AM EDT/137 AM CDT/, National Weather Service doppler radar
indicated a strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Kinsey
to 9 miles east of Cottonwood. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Colquitt, Cottonwood, Headland, Blakely, Dothan, Kinsey, Ashford,
Cowarts, Webb, Columbia, Centerville, Avon, Gordon, Jakin, Haleburg,
Crosby, Grangeburg, Hayes, Wilson Mill and Rock Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3149 8503 3150 8492 3112 8460 3107 8478
      3107 8503 3101 8500 3100 8501 3100 8528
      3129 8544 3129 8542 3133 8542 3155 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 0637Z 244DEG 23KT 3129 8533 3106 8514

32

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