Alert archive / Georgia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Tallahassee, FL

February 7, 2017Ben Hill County, Irwin County, Georgia

NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Feb 7, 2017, 8:18 PM EST for Ben Hill County, Irwin County, Georgia. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 7, 2017, 8:18 PM EST (01:18 UTC)
Expired: Feb 7, 2017, 8:45 PM EST
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Tallahassee, FL
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Ben Hill County, GA, Irwin County, GA

The radar

The Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Feb 7, 5:33 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 923 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 575 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 223 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 267 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.2
Supercell composite: 7.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

439 
WUUS52 KTAE 080118
SVRTAE
GAC017-155-080145-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0099.170208T0118Z-170208T0145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
818 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2017

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Ben Hill County in south central Georgia...
  Southeastern Irwin County in south central Georgia...

* Until 845 PM EST

* At 818 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
  Ambrose, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Ocilla, Wray and Osierfield. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3166 8301 3164 8301 3164 8303 3162 8303
      3162 8304 3161 8305 3161 8306 3155 8306
      3150 8310 3147 8320 3148 8326 3159 8330
      3173 8300 3166 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 242DEG 37KT 3156 8313 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

11-MOORE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Feb 7, 6:46 PM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 7, 6:46 PM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
646 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Thursday]...

Line of strong to severe thunderstorms currently traversing the
middle part of the CWA in N FL and SW GA. Behind it, expansive
area of stratiform precipitation with embedded thunder. The whole
line is moving east at 40 knots. This line will be on top of
TLH/ABY now and VLD in the next hour. Expect rain to persist
through the evening hours. Overnight, degraded vsbys/cigs due to
recent rain and lingering moisture at all terminals. Expect IFR to
LIFR conds overnight. Conds improve by mid morning Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [327 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Summary: The threat for severe weather will increase this afternoon
through the evening hours. The best chance of seeing any severe
weather is across portions of the Florida panhandle and southeast
Alabama, although isolated severe weather is possible across the
entire area. The main threats are damaging wind gusts and large hail
with localized impacts to trees and power lines, although an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Analysis:  This afternoon's water vapor imagery shows the base of a
vigorous upper level shortwave is now moving through eastern
Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Ahead of it, the environment
has destabilized fairly significantly for this time of year with
SBCAPE values over 1500 j/kg extending well inland into southeast
Alabama and southern Georgia per the 18z SPC mesoanalysis. Shear
values are still fairly low in our area, but shear is higher to the
west across portions of southwest Alabama and southern Mississippi,
and this airmass is forecast to move eastward through the evening
hours. The RAP runs today have remain consistent in showing a
stronger low level jet than the NAM, GFS, or ECMWF, and looking at
the velocities from the KMOB radar, the RAP may be closer to the
truth. Thus, there remains a threat of severe storms across the
entire area through the evening hours. The greatest threat continues
to be across the western half of the area. SPC has extended the
slight risk area eastward a bit compared to this morning's outlook,
which makes sense given the more impressive appearance to the system
than this morning. The CAM guidance continues to suggest a QLCS will
move into the area with some CAMs explicitly showing 50 knot gusts
or higher. Most of the activity should be out of the area by
midnight with the potential for areas of fog to develop in its wake
late tonight.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Southwesterly flow will continue from Wednesday through Wednesday
night across our area as an upper level trough approaches our area
from the northwest. However, in the wake of the MCS that will
have moved through our area the previous night, a fairly stable
airmass will be in place over inland regions early Wednesday,
resulting in dry conditions during the morning and early afternoon.
Moisture is expected to gradually increase from south to north
during the afternoon and evening hours, with PWAT values
increasing to 1.0-1.5". A cold front will then move across our
area overnight, with best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms from Tallahassee east through the FL Big Bend and
south central GA. Cooler and much drier air will move into our
area on Thursday, with clear skies and highs in the mid 60s to
lower 70s. Lows Thursday night will dip into the mid-upper 30s
inland, with 40s along the Gulf Coast.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The upper level trough mentioned in the short term discussion will
move to our east on Friday, and will be replaced by an upper ridge
over the eastern CONUS from the weekend through early next week.
With a broad area of high pressure at the surface, expect dry
conditions to prevail throughout this period. Seasonably cool
conditions on Friday (highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s) will
quickly give way to warmer than normal temperatures through the
weekend and early next week. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s
are expected from Saturday through Tuesday.

.MARINE...

A line of thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, will move
through our marine zones this evening. Strong wind gusts and
frequent lightning will accompany the storms. Otherwise, expect
winds generally around 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 3 feet
through the next few days.

.FIRE WEATHER...

In the wake of showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday, much
drier air is expected on Thursday. Strong transport winds will lead
to high dispersions across much of the area. RH values will stay
above the threshold for red flag conditions.

.HYDROLOGY...

Some heavy rain is possible this evening with the thunderstorms,
but storms will likely be moving too quickly to pose a significant
flooding threat. No heavy rain is anticipated from Wednesday
through the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   59  77  62  70  37 /  90  20  30   0   0
Panama City   64  71  63  67  43 /  80  20  20   0   0
Dothan        59  75  56  64  36 /  80  20  20   0   0
Albany        59  75  58  65  35 /  90  20  30   0   0
Valdosta      58  76  61  70  37 /  90  20  30  10   0
Cross City    60  76  63  74  38 /  80  20  30  10   0
Apalachicola  62  71  63  70  44 /  80  20  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Lahr

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 7, 7:14 PM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
714 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW HAVANA            30.65N 84.49W
02/07/2017                   GADSDEN            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN ALONG POINT MILLIGAN ROAD

&&

RH

Local storm report, Feb 7, 7:45 PM EST, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
745 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAIRO                   30.88N 84.21W
02/07/2017                   GRADY              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG PINE CIRCLE SW AND 1ST
            ST IN CAIRO

&&

RH

Local storm report, Feb 7, 7:47 PM EST, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
747 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W WOODVILLE           30.31N 84.30W
02/06/2017                   LEON               FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS WAKULLA SPRINGS ROAD

&&

RH

Local storm report, Feb 7, 7:55 PM EST, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
755 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARTSFIELD              31.22N 83.98W
02/07/2017                   COLQUITT           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 37

&&

RH

Local storm report, Feb 7, 7:59 PM EST, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
759 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S PELHAM              31.05N 84.15W
02/07/2017                   GRADY              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 111

&&

RH

Local storm report, Feb 7, 8:04 PM EST, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
804 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N HOPEFUL             31.19N 84.39W
02/07/2017                   MITCHELL           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN N OF 311 ON RIVER RD

&&

RH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 7, 7:06 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Berrien, Brooks, Colquitt, Cook, Lanier, Lowndes and 4 more	39 min
Feb 7, 7:23 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Brooks	67 min
Feb 7, 7:37 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Berrien, Brooks, Colquitt, Cook, Irwin, Lanier and 2 more	23 min
Feb 7, 7:53 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Berrien, Brooks, Cook, Irwin, Lanier, Lowndes and 1 more	38 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Georgia, 2017 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.