Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Tallahassee, FL

563 
WWUS52 KTAE 310204
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1004 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

FLC077-129-310213-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0182.000000T0000Z-170531T0215Z/
Wakulla FL-Liberty FL-
1004 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA AND
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3020 8492 3029 8489 3031 8471 3030 8471
      3030 8470 3013 8449 3001 8469 3001 8476
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 308DEG 9KT 3013 8470 

$$

15-HARRIGAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
921 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017

.UPDATE...

Adjusted PoPs a bit to match current trends and latest guidance,
though the previous forecast and discussions remain largely on
track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [732 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Latest radar imagery shows a few showers on radar this afternoon.
SPC mesoanalysis shows plenty of instability for thunderstorms but
extensive cloud coverage today has played a limiting factor in
development. A moderate shower and/or isolated thunderstorm will be
possible though through the afternoon.

With a trough positioned over the eastern portion of the CONUS and a
weak shortwave forecast to move across the CWA tonight,
precipitation chances (20-30%) will continue overnight with isolated
thunderstorms possible. Low temperatures will fall into the upper
60s to lower 70s Wednesday morning.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A stagnant upper level low centered over the Hudson Bay will
drive the weather across the eastern U.S. through the period, with
a series of shortwaves of varying intensity rotating around the
feature. At the beginning of the period, quasi-zonal flow will be
in place across the region, as one of these aforementioned
shortwave troughs rotates around the previously mentioned upper
low. With near average moisture in place across the area and a
more active sea-breeze circulation, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be expected across the region each day. The
latest model guidance continues to limit instability across the
area, which will help keep storm intensity in check. POPs will
generally range from 20 to 40% each day. Temperatures will remain
around normal through the period.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Active weather will continue through the long term period as
guidance remains consistent in developing a weak trough over the
northwest Gulf of Mexico, advecting a plume of deep layer tropical
moisture into the region for the weekend. This will yield an uptick
in shower and storm coverage for this weekend and early next week,
with POPs currently ranging in the 40 to 50% range during the
daytime hours. Rain chances will exist during the evening and
nighttime hours as well, given the synoptic pattern. With mostly
cloudy conditions expected region wide, temperatures will be limited
to the upper 80s, with overnight lows likely remaining in the low
70s.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Thursday]...

Overnight, high clouds will persist with VFR conditions for all TAF
sites. Before sunrise, MVFR conditions are likely at ECP with lower
vsbys and ceilings. Tomorrow afternoon, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected around the TAF sites. Afternoon storms
may also lower ceilings to MVFR.

.MARINE...

Generally south to southwesterly winds at or below 10 knots will
prevail each afternoon with variable winds during the overnight
period. Seas of 1 to 2 feet are expected. Wind and chop will be
locally higher near the coast with the development of the daily
seabreeze. Chances for showers and thunderstorms over coastal waters
will increase by late week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very light transport winds Thursday afternoon may lead to critically
low afternoon dispersion values. Otherwise, there are no other fire
weather concerns at this time.

.HYDROLOGY...

Shower and thunderstorm activity will remain scattered through late
this week. Though locally heavy rainfall is possible with some of
the stronger storms, area rivers and streams will remain below
action stage. There continues to be potential in heavy rain across
the region this weekend through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   70  90  69  90  69 /  30  30  10  40  30
Panama City   73  86  73  85  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
Dothan        69  88  69  88  69 /  30  30  20  50  40
Albany        69  89  70  88  70 /  30  40  20  50  30
Valdosta      69  90  69  90  69 /  20  40  30  50  40
Cross City    70  91  69  91  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  71  86  71  86  72 /  20  10  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Wednesday
     for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Harrigan
NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Barry/Chaney
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Pullin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
931 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

FLZ026-027-310200-
Liberty FL-Inland Wakulla FL-
931 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA AND
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

At 930 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm 23 miles southeast of Blountstown, this storm
was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
East Camp, Jewel Fire Tower, Smith Creek, Vilas, Jensen Place, Nixon
Garden, Twin Pole and Central City.

LAT...LON 3007 8490 3024 8499 3030 8484 3030 8466
      3016 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 235DEG 8KT 3020 8477

15-HARRIGAN