Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
350 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...Severe Weather Event Ongoing with More to Come Over the Next
Couple of Days...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Expansive MCS/squall line continues across the CWA becoming
orientated northeast to southwest from southern Alabama to central
Georgia at this hour. Instability and shear are adequate to
continue the enhanced risk of severe weather into the overnight
hours as the entire system moves slowly eastward. There have been
numerous reports of trees and power lines down so far as well as
sporadic structure damage.

Weather will slowly wind down tonight across SE AL and the western
Florida panhandle. However, for locations east of this area, chances
for precipitation and severe weather will continue. Skies will
remain cloudy overnight with lows in the 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

We will not get much of a reprieve before the next threat for
severe weather arrives Tuesday night and continues into Wednesday
night. An upper low will develop over New Mexico Tuesday morning
and move northeast across the Great Plains to the upper
Mississippi River by Wednesday afternoon. As it approaches the
river, a sharp short wave trough will begin to sweep toward the
Southeast reaching our vicinity by 12Z Thursday. At the surface,
the front currently impacting the region will stall over us on
Tuesday and then begin to lift back north as a warm front along
the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast from Tuesday night through
Wednesday. A surface low over the Texas Panhandle will move
northeastward on Tuesday before occluding over the Midwest on
Wednesday. The trailing cold front will cross our zones Wednesday
night.

Air mass recovery will commence on Tuesday and we will be under a
severe weather threat for the entire time we are in the warm
sector of this next system with low level shear enhanced in the
vicinity of the warm front. Wind profiles will strengthen and
become favorable for the development of supercells with another
QLCS developing ahead of the cold front as well. Provided
sufficient surface destabilization occurs, and this is expected,
we could see a significant severe weather event. The Storm
Prediction Center already has the northwest portion of our
forecast area in an enhanced risk for severe storms on Wednesday.
It would not be a shock if this risk were upgraded. So, the main
message is that everyone needs to remain alert over the next
couple of days as unfortunately, we will not be out of the woods
once today's threat is over.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Much quieter weather is expected for this period as drier air
arrives behind the cold front on Thursday. Look for highs in the
70s with lows in the 40s through the weekend. We should get back
to the into the 80s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday]...

A strong to severe squall line will continue to push across the
FL panhandle and southwest GA this afternoon and early tonight.
Gusts of 35 to 40kts have occurred with the squall line with vsbys
less than 1mi in +TSRA. The line of storms with scattered TSRA in
the wake of the initial line will affect KECP through 21Z, KABY
through 23Z, KTLH through 00Z,and KVLD through 02Z. Ahead of the
line of storms an outflow boundary will briefly shift winds to the
N with gusts to 35kt. Rain and thunderstorms will exit the region
by 06Z with MVFR/IFR cigs developing at all sites. Cigs will
improve to VFR after 12Z at KDHN and KABY, but lower cigs will
linger through 15Z at KECP, KTLH, and KVLD.

&&

.MARINE...

Marine winds have struggled to reach advisory criteria, but we are
reluctant to lower it just yet. We may be able to do so this
evening. After a brief decrease in winds, we expect them to
increase back to advisory levels on Wednesday and remain elevated
after the frontal wind shift Wednesday night. In fact, it looks
like we will not drop below cautionary levels until the weekend.
At least that is some good news for area boaters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A line of storms will exit the area overnight. Drier air will
move in on Tuesday, but humidity values will remain above critical
levels. Another round of showers and storms is expected from late
Tuesday night through Wednesday. No Red Flag conditions are
expected through Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Since it has been so dry lately, we are not anticipating any river
flooding. In fact, the only issues we would anticipate would be
localize flooding in poor drainage areas like urban areas and
small creeks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  85  68  81  56 /  80  20  20  60  50
Panama City   68  79  70  76  58 /  40  10  20  80  20
Dothan        62  84  66  79  52 /  20   0  20  80  20
Albany        64  85  66  80  53 /  50   0  20  80  40
Valdosta      67  85  68  84  56 /  80  20  20  50  50
Cross City    68  82  67  84  60 /  70  60  20  20  40
Apalachicola  69  79  70  78  60 /  80  30  20  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Tuesday for Coastal
     Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River
     to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Hollingsworth
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Wool

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SYLVESTER               31.53N 83.84W
04/03/2017                   WORTH              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN ACROSS WORTH
            COUNTY. REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ON HOMES.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
258 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOBBY                   31.66N 83.74W
04/03/2017                   TURNER             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN TURNER
            COUNTY

&&

RH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
317 PM EDT MON APR 3 2017

FLZ016-017-026-027-GAZ157-031945-
Liberty FL-Gadsden FL-Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-Grady GA-
317 PM EDT MON APR 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WAKULLA...GADSDEN...
CENTRAL LIBERTY...CENTRAL LEON AND SOUTHWESTERN GRADY COUNTIES UNTIL
345 PM EDT...

At 317 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a a
strong thunderstorm near Greensboro, or 11 miles southwest of Quincy,
moving east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Midway, Quincy, Havana, Tallahassee, Greensboro, Orange, Gretna,
Bristol, Rock Bluff, Jewel Fire Tower, Juniper, Douglas City, Vilas,
Florence, Jamieson, Central City, Quincy Airport, Lowry, Nixon Garden
and Bloxham.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for Big Bend of
and the Panhandle of Florida.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for
southwestern Georgia.

LAT...LON 3017 8512 3065 8487 3070 8453 3069 8438
      3072 8438 3073 8430 3015 8441
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 260DEG 47KT 3049 8474

04-MCDERMOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE FITZGERALD         31.70N 83.23W
04/03/2017                   BEN HILL           GA   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN OVER ROADS IN FITZGERALD

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE GILLIONVILLE       31.56N 84.39W
04/03/2017                   DOUGHERTY          GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BOAT FLIPPED AT MARINE DEALER ON RADIUM SPRINGS ROAD.

&&

CAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALBANY                  31.58N 84.18W
04/03/2017                   DOUGHERTY          GA   PUBLIC

            SHED FLIPPED OVER IN ALBANY

&&

RH