Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
348 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...Severe weather possible this evening and overnight...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Complex severe weather threat unfolding currently with low pressure
across western Missouri and a cold front located across eastern
Louisiana/Arkansas/Missouri. Upstairs, a deep trough was located
across the southern Plains with a closed low across western
Missouri. The entire system is heading eastward/northeastward.

This mornings hi-res model solutions were struggling as compared to
the real world mesoscale situation. However, it now appears that the
local CAMs and HRRR were coming into better agreement on the details
of the next 12-18 hours which lends a little better confidence to
the forecast.

Line of showers and storms across southern Mississippi and southeast
Louisiana will trek eastward through the day. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible to develop ahead of the line and affect areas west of
the Choctawhatchee River later this afternoon. Raised PoPs to chance
across this area.

The main event will be this evening and overnight. Main squall line
will affect SE AL and western FL panhandle this evening then move
eastward with time. Instability is marginal with the highest of the
values favoring the Florida panhandle counties but shear is more
than sufficient for organized storms. In addition, there will be a
mid level speed max to invigorate the line as it moves across the
area.

Speaking of threats, damaging winds will be the main threat. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

In the upper levels by Friday morning the 500mb low will be over
Indiana with a trough extending through Georgia and North
Florida. A ridge will build in Friday night and remain in place
through Sunday. At the surface a low will be near the
Indiana/Michigan border by Friday morning. The cold front will
extend southward through Georgia and North Florida. The threat for
severe weather will be diminished by Friday morning but showers
and thunderstorms will be present east of the Chattahoochee and
Apalachicola Rivers where POPs will be 30 to 50 percent. By noon
Friday rain will move out of the region and skies will be
clearing. Highs Friday will be in the lower 80s.

Friday night through Saturday night will be uneventful with high
pressure over the Southeast. Expect clear/sunny skies. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 50s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

In the upper levels another trough will move through Monday
evening. At the surface a cold front will move through Monday
afternoon and evening with thunderstorms likely. QPF estimates
suggest 2 inches of rain is possible on Monday. A weak front may
move through Wednesday night into Thursday. A chance of rain is
forecast with that system. Highs will be in the 80s and lows will
be in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

VFR conditions with southerly flow will prevail this afternoon. A
line of storms moving eastward through the region will likely reach
KDHN and KECP by early evening with some isolated storms out ahead
of the line potentially affecting these taf sites earlier. The main
line of storms will affect KTLH, KABY and KVLD sites overnight. As
the line of TSRA/SHRA passes, conditions will decrease to MVFR,
however, conditions could lower locally to IFR under heavier
convection. Winds will also begin to become west-northwesterly. The
storms should clear out by tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...

South winds will be 15 to 20 knots tonight ahead of a cold front.
Seas will be 3 to 5 feet and occasionally higher offshore. A line
of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move through
overnight. Strong to severe winds and isolated waterspouts will be
possible. Winds will become light and westerly once the front
passes in the morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next several days,
though dispersion indices may be marginally high on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

River levels are currently well below action stage. One to four
inches of rain are forecast over the next seven days. The best
chance for higher rain totals will be over Southeast Alabama and
Panhandle Florida. River flooding is not expected. Flash flooding
is not expected but cannot be ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   64  82  55  87  57 /  70  40   0   0   0
Panama City   66  77  60  79  62 /  80  20   0   0   0
Dothan        61  80  55  85  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
Albany        64  81  55  84  57 /  80  50   0   0   0
Valdosta      62  84  55  85  56 /  60  50   0   0   0
Cross City    63  81  55  85  54 /  30  50   0   0   0
Apalachicola  66  77  59  78  61 /  70  30   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...McDermott
LONG TERM...McDermott
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...McDermott
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...McDermott