River Flood Warning 31, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
651 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...

Increasing northeasterly winds today, increasing significantly late
in the period. Generally MVFR conditions, continuing to deteriorate
throughout day. Showers currently beginning to make their way through
the area, increasing in coverage as the day progresses.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [356 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Hurricane Irma is currently approaching Key West early this sunday
morning and is forecast to move northward skirting along or just
inland across the southwest coast of Florida by this evening. Irma
has a very big wind field and northeasterly winds will continue
to increase during the day. Rain will also be spreading into the
local region from the south and east. The greatest impacts from
Irma will begin late tonight and continue through Monday. Final
preparations for Hurricane Irma should be completed this morning
or early afternoon at the latest.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

We will see impacts from Hurricane Irma during this period.
Tropical storm force winds will most likely arrive in Dixie County
before midnight and spread northward across the Florida Big Bend
into South Georgia before sunrise Monday. Hurricane conditions are
most likely to arrive in Dixie County around 12Z Monday and reach
the Florida-Georgia line Monday afternoon. Irma is expected to
weaken to a tropical storm as it moves north of U.S. 84 later
Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions should end from south
to north across the region Monday evening.

Storm surge values of 4 to 6 feet above ground are expected along
the Florida Big Bend coast. However, deeper inundation will be
possible if the forecast track moves further west.

Specific impacts can be found by clicking the Local Products tab
at www.weather.gov/srh/tropical/?office=tae

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Irma will be northwest of the forecast area by Tuesday. Wrap
around moisture on the east side of its remnants will allow for a
20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday, with
the highest chances over south central Georgia and the eastern Big
Bend. Ridging will build as we head into the weekend, lowering
chances for rain. Highs will be mostly in the mid 80s and lows
will be mostly in the 60s, possibly upper 50s in southeast Alabama
over the weekend.

.MARINE...

Irma will move north along the west coast of the FL Peninsula
through Monday morning, bringing hurricane conditions to our
eastern coastal waters and tropical storm force winds to our
western waters with gusts to hurricane force possible there as
well. Winds and seas will gradually fall through mid week as the
storm lifts to the north.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Transport winds will be high. Winds will continue to increase at the
surface. Rain chances will increase beginning Sunday.

.HYDROLOGY...

Storm total rainfall is now expected to be 8 to 10 inches west of
a Cross City to Perry to Valdosta line, 5 to 7 inches west from
that line to Albany and Tallahassee and 3 to 5 inches northwest of
the Flint River to the Chattahoochee River. Rainfall rates from
hurricanes can be quite high and could result in rapid flooding
of low lying and poor drainage areas such as those in cities and
along streams and creeks. A flash flood watch is now in effect for
most of our Florida Big Bend and Georgia zones. Many area rivers
in the watch area are now forecast to reach minor flood stage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  65  70  61  84 /  60  90  90  40  10
Panama City   78  66  74  66  81 /  30  60  70  20  10
Dothan        76  61  67  59  78 /  40  70  90  60  20
Albany        75  62  70  60  80 /  50  90  90  70  20
Valdosta      73  65  72  61  84 /  90  90  90  40  20
Cross City    77  69  75  68  86 /  90  90  80  30  20
Apalachicola  79  66  76  67  84 /  40  70  70  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hurricane Warning for Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

     Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for
     Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Madison.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Jackson-North
     Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Hurricane Warning for Baker-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
     Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Worth.

     Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Ben Hill-Irwin-Turner.

AL...Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Hurricane Warning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From
     Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out
     20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Wool