Rip Current Statement 114, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
931 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.UPDATE...

No significant changes were made to the forecast for today with
the morning update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [541 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The main weather feature today is a dry cold front, aided by an
upper trough across the eastern and central CONUS, which will move
through the area this morning. At the same time, the subtropical
jet, with mid/high clouds streaming across the Gulf and southeast
CONUS, will remain in place today. Variable winds will become
northwesterly behind the front and skies remaining mostly cloudy.
Virtually NIL chance for precipitation, with the exception of the
offshore waters today. Cold air advection, along with the thick
cloud cover, will keep highs in the 50s across the northern half of
the area and 60s across the southern half where cold air advection
will take the longest to penetrate.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Quiet and dry conditions will prevail through much of the short term
period, as upper level flow becomes zonal with the departure of the
upper low that previously dominated much of the eastern third of the
CONUS this past week. Subtropical ridging will build in across the
Caribbean/Florida Peninsula on Saturday, amplifying on Sunday
with the approach of the first shortwave trough in a series of
shortwave troughs that will affect the regions weather into the
next week. Shower chances will increase across the western third
of the area with the approach of the aforementioned approaching
wave, as an influx of moisture around the periphery of the
subtropical ridge will precede the shortwave trough. Rain chances
will spread eastward across the region into the long term period
discussed below.

Temperatures will remain near average on Saturday behind a dry cool
front. Afternoon highs will generally range from the upper 50s to
mid 60s, with lows remaining in the 40s. Warm air will advect into
the region on Sunday, increasing high temperatures by 8 to 10
degrees into the low 70s regionwide. Overnight lows Sunday night
will remain elevated due to mostly cloudy conditions, with readings
in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The first of several shortwave troughs will be in the process of
lifting poleward across the Tennessee/Ohio River Valley's at the
beginning of the long term period, with a ribbon of subtropical
moisture draped across the tri-state region. As a result, the
remainder of Sunday into Monday will be wet, with elevated shower
and isolated thunderstorm chances across the region. Beyond Monday,
the forecast details remain murky tonight, as operational model
guidance continues to exhibit some differences in the details
regarding the second shortwave trough progged to traverse the
southeast during the mid to late week timeframe. At this time,
confidence is high in wet and unsettled weather to continue trough
much of the week, despite any differences regarding the
strength/progression of this feature. Beyond the end of the long
term period, there is reasonable agreement in longer range
guidance in another system approaching the region by the end of
the week, bringing with it another wave of unsettled weather.
Expect temperatures to run above normal for highs and lows through
much of the period.

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]...

Cold front at 10Z roughly bisects the area from ECP to ABY. Calm
winds ahead of the front and northwest winds behind it. Fog did
not materialize south of the front and have removed from TLH/VLD
TAFs. Point soundings show a gradual lowering of mid decks through
the period but will remain VFR. Winds will gradually shift to the
north-northeast by the end of the period.

.MARINE...

Winds will generally remain below cautionary levels through much of
the period. The strongest winds are expected offshore on Sunday
afternoon, where speeds will approach 15 knots. Seas will generally
range from 2 to 4 feet.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will move across the area this morning. The front is
dry so no precipitation expected. Other than a wind shift to the
northwest, little fanfare is expected with the front. Therefore, no
hazardous fire weather conditions expected.

.HYDROLOGY...

No meaningful rain is expected through much of the weekend. Late
Sunday through early next week, there's the potential for average
rainfall amounts of 1-3" with isolated higher amounts. The QPF early
next week remains uncertain as models differ significantly regarding
the details of the evolution of the frontal system. These rainfall
estimates are subject to change in either direction. Based on the
current amounts forecast, flooding is not expected to be a concern.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   65  40  61  43  72 /  10  10   0   0  20
Panama City   61  42  61  49  71 /  10  10   0   0  40
Dothan        54  34  59  42  71 /  10   0   0   0  20
Albany        58  35  59  40  71 /  10   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      64  39  60  41  72 /  10   0   0   0  10
Cross City    71  42  66  44  76 /  10   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  67  44  61  50  70 /  10  10   0   0  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...McD
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan