Hard Freeze Warning 1, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1228 PM EST Sat Jan 7 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Back edge of MVFR cloud shield should move through VLD by 19Z.
Once that occurs, all terminals will be VFR through the rest of
the period. Breezy northwest to north winds of 15-25 knots will
continue through the afternoon hours then decreasing to around 10
knots this evening continuing into Sunday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1146 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Updated forecast to remove mention of precipitation across the FL
Big Bend, areal coverage of clouds to match satellite as we are
clearing out faster than anticipated, and hourly temperatures
through the morning hours. Forecast highs are on track with
readings ranging in the upper 30s across SE AL/western FL
panhandle/SW GA to mid/upper 40s along I-75 in GA southward to the
FL Big Bend. Wind chill advisory across GA on track to expire at
11 AM ET and will monitor SE AL and FL panhandle for expiration at
12 PM CT.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Dry and colder than normal conditions will persist throughout this
period, as a deep upper level trough moves east of our area and
northwesterly flow will occur aloft. At the surface, northerly
winds and cold air advection will continue tonight before
diminishing early Sunday. A strong high pressure center (likely
up to 1040-1045 mb) will cover the majority of the southeastern
CONUS, including our area, from Sunday through Monday. Widespread
lows in the mid-upper 20s are expected both Sunday and Monday
morning, with some lower 30s along the Gulf Coast. Highs will
generally remain in the 40s on Sunday, moderating into the 50s on
Monday under light east-northeasterly winds and clear skies.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

As the upper level trough mentioned in the short term discussion
moves eastward into the Atlantic Ocean, quasi-zonal upper level
flow will prevail throughout the majority of this period. At the
surface, mild and slightly more humid conditions will return to
our area on Tuesday and persist through the remainder of the
period, as the center of the broad area of high pressure over the
eastern CONUS moves offshore and light southeasterly flow prevails
across our area. With a lack of forcing, however, generally dry
conditions will persist across our area. One possible exception
could be on Wednesday, when areas north and west of Tallahassee
have a slight chance of rain due to increasing moisture and
isentropic lift.

Highs will rebound into the low-mid 70s by the middle of the week
and remain warmer than normal through the weekend. After lows in
the mid-upper 30s inland on Tuesday morning, expect widespread
lows in the low-mid 50s for the remainder of the period.

.MARINE...

Strong northerly winds will result in winds gusting near or above
35 kts through tonight, resulting in Gale Warnings across our
marine areas. Peak seas will range from 6 to 9 feet with
occasional 11 foot seas well offshore. Winds and seas will subside
on Sunday into next week, but small craft will likely need to
exercise caution offshore as seas will range from 2 to 5 feet
during this time.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Although RH values are expected to drop below 30 percent on Sunday
across a large portion of the area, the wind and fuel moisture do
not look sufficient for red flag conditions. A moistening trend is
expected after Sunday.

.HYDROLOGY...

Rivers that are currently in flood stage (sites along the
Choctawhatchee River, Chipola River, and Kinchafoonee Creek) have
crested and will continue to recede throughout the weekend. Light
to moderate rain will continue to taper off early this morning,
and little to no additional rainfall is expected for the next
several days.

For the latest information on area rivers, please visit our AHPS
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

Also newly available are flood inundation maps for the Apalachicola
at Blountstown through our AHPS interface.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   27  48  26  56  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   30  48  30  55  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        24  44  26  51  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        25  45  25  50  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      26  46  26  55  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    27  50  28  60  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  30  49  31  57  47 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ this afternoon
     for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...DVD