Gale Watch 1, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
102 PM EST Fri Jan 6 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

Flight conditions will go down hill the next 6-12 hours as
widespread rain develops across the Tri-State region. MVFR cloud
decks are being reported across area terminals and expect this
to continue with IFR developing this evening with light to
moderate rainfall. IFR conditions will persist through early
Saturday morning at which time cigs will lift to MVFR from west to
east through the morning. Breezy northwest winds up to 25 knots
will develop as well overnight behind a cold frontal passage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [954 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

No significant changes needed to the forecast. Precipitation
continues to develop across Alabama and the western Florida
panhandle. Rain chances will spread eastward through the day. High
temperatures will be cooler across the northern half of the area
(in the 50s across SE AL and SW GA) and warmer in the south (60s
and 70s across the Big Bend counties).

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

An upper level trough will become highly amplified over the eastern
CONUS on Friday night and Saturday, with its base dipping southward
into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Just downstream of this feature
at the surface, the weak trough of low pressure (and associated
quasi-stationary front) that had been parked over northern FL on
Friday will begin accelerating eastward as the upper trough deepens
on Friday night. As this occurs, cold air advection will increase
over our area. However, ample moisture and isentropic lift will
persist across our area throughout the night, before gradually
decreasing from NW to SE early Saturday morning as drier air filters
southeastward. This will result in periods of moderate rain across
our area on Friday night.

Temperatures at the surface are expected to remain above freezing
for the vast majority of our area through Saturday morning, with the
possible exception of our far northwestern locations around 12Z
Saturday (when the precipitation has likely ended). However, a sub-
freezing layer between 850-925 mb could move into this area around
06Z Saturday, although temperatures above 850 mb are likely to
remain well above freezing. As a result, a few hours of sleet are
possible beginning around 06Z, mainly north and west of Dothan
before precipitation tapers off. With surface temperatures near or
above freezing and road temperatures likely well above freezing in
these areas, no significant hazards resulting from wintry
precipitation are anticipated at this time. Dry and colder than
normal conditions will persist through the remainder of the period
as the cold front continues to move southeast of our area.

Low temperatures on Saturday morning are expected to range from the
lower 30s across our far northwest counties to upper 40s/lower 50s
in the eastern FL Big Bend region. A widespread freeze is
anticipated Sunday morning as cold air advection continues under
northerly flow, with lows in the mid-upper 20s inland and near 30
along the Gulf Coast. Highs will only reach the 40s across most of
our area on Saturday and Sunday.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Northwesterly flow at upper levels on Monday will give way to more
zonal flow through midweek, and an upper ridge is expected to build
across the southeastern CONUS later in the week. As a result,
temperatures will gradually moderate throughout the week, rebounding
to above climatological normals by Thursday and Friday with highs
mainly in the lower 70s and lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s. A weak
front will move eastward through our area on Wednesday, providing a
chance of rain across our area. Otherwise, the majority of the week
will likely remain dry.

.MARINE...

As a cold front moves through our area, strong northerly winds of
20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots will produce rough seas
from tonight through Sunday afternoon. Therefore, a small craft
advisory has been issued from 10 PM eastern time tonight through 1
PM Sunday afternoon. Winds and seas will subside slightly from
Sunday into next week, but small craft may still need to exercise
caution with easterly winds up to 15 to 20 knots and seas of 2 to
4 feet.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values remaining above critical levels.

.HYDROLOGY...

Rivers that are currently in flood stage across our area (sites
along the Choctawhatchee River, Chipola River, and Kinchafoonee
Creek) have crested or are expected to crest shortly. Additional
rainfall of around an inch or less is expected tonight, which
will not likely have much impact other than to slow the rate of
recession in these rivers/creeks.

For the latest information on area rivers, please visit our AHPS
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

Also newly available are flood inundation maps for the Apalachicola
at Blountstown through our AHPS interface.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   40  47  27  47  28 /  90  20   0   0   0
Panama City   38  43  30  47  33 /  80  10   0   0   0
Dothan        31  41  24  44  26 /  90  10   0   0   0
Albany        35  44  25  44  26 /  90  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      41  48  26  46  26 / 100  30   0   0   0
Cross City    48  54  28  49  29 /  90  50   0   0   0
Apalachicola  41  49  30  49  35 /  80  20   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Lahr