River Flood Warning 49, NWS Sacramento, CA

330 
WGUS86 KSTO 041714
FLSLSJ
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
913 AM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in 
California..

  Tuolumne River At Modesto

.Minor fluctuations expected on the Lower San Joaquin River 
System through the weekend. The Tuolumne River at Modesto and
is forecast to fluctuate near flood stage through the weekend. The San Joaquin River at Vernalis is forecast to fluctuate just below flood stage through the weekend. 

Forecasts are based on present and forecasted meteorological and 
hydrologic conditions at time of issuance.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Unlisted forecast points are expected to remain below monitor stage.
All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid 
changes and for possible forecast revisions.

For more hydrologic information and stage definitions refer to the 
following web site:  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/hydro_data.php


The next statement will be issued 3 pm Saturday.

&&

CAC099-051913-
/O.ROU.KSTO.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PATC1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
913 AM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

Forecast information for
  San Joaquin River Near Patterson.
* At  8:45 AM Saturday the stage was 50.2 feet.
* Forecast to recede to near 49.5 FT late tomorrow morning then 
  forecast to fluctuate near 49.5 FT thru late Monday morning.
* Flood stage 54.7 ft
* Monitor stage 48.0 ft


 &&

LAT...LON 3757 12127 3763 12108 3746 12089 3736 12111


$$

CAC077-051913-
/O.ROU.KSTO.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/VNSC1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
913 AM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

Forecast information for
  San Joaquin River Near Vernalis.
* At  8:45 AM Saturday the stage was 28.8 feet.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 28.5 FT thru late Monday morning.
* Flood stage 29.0 ft
* Monitor stage 24.5 ft
* Impact...Near 26.0 feet, Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. 
  The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
* Impact...Near 21.0 feet, Seepage begins into crop area outside of 
  levees.

 &&

LAT...LON 3772 12141 3777 12123 3765 12109 3756 12127


$$

CAC077-051913-
/O.ROU.KSTO.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MOSC1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
913 AM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

Forecast information for
  San Joaquin River At Mossdale Bridge.
* At  8:45 AM Saturday the stage was 19.6 feet.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 19.5 FT thru late Monday morning.
* Flood stage 28.5 ft
* Monitor stage 19.5 ft


 &&

LAT...LON 3782 12140 3792 12130 3774 12123 3769 12136


$$

CAC099-051913-
/O.CON.KSTO.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MDSC1.1.ER.170303T2055Z.170304T0615Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
913 AM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tuolumne River At Modesto.
* At  8:30 AM Saturday the stage was 54.9 feet.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 55.0 FT thru late tomorrow morning.
* Flood stage 55.0 ft
* Monitor stage 50.5 ft
* Impact...Near 55.0 feet, This is channel capacity through downtown 
  Modesto.

 &&

LAT...LON 3763 12120 3771 12075 3758 12069 3752 12112


$$

516 
WGUS86 KSTO 042006
FLSLSJ

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1206 PM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in 
California..

  Tuolumne River At Modesto

.Minor fluctuations expected on the Lower San Joaquin River 
System through the weekend. The Tuolumne River at Modesto and
is forecast to fluctuate near flood stage through the weekend. 
The San Joaquin River at Vernalis is forecast to fluctuate just 
below flood stage through the weekend. 

Forecasts are based on present and forecasted meteorological and 
hydrologic conditions at time of issuance.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Unlisted forecast points are expected to remain below monitor stage.
All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid 
changes and for possible forecast revisions.

For more hydrologic information and stage definitions refer to the 
following web site:  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/hydro_data.php


The next statement will be issued 3 pm Saturday.

&&

CAC099-051913-
/O.ROU.KSTO.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PATC1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1206 PM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

Forecast information for
  San Joaquin River Near Patterson.
* At  8:45 AM Saturday the stage was 50.2 feet.
* Forecast to recede to near 49.5 FT late tomorrow morning then 
  forecast to fluctuate near 49.5 FT thru late Monday morning.
* Flood stage 54.7 ft
* Monitor stage 48.0 ft


 &&

LAT...LON 3757 12127 3763 12108 3746 12089 3736 12111


$$

CAC077-051913-
/O.ROU.KSTO.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/VNSC1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1206 PM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

Forecast information for
  San Joaquin River Near Vernalis.
* At  8:45 AM Saturday the stage was 28.8 feet.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 28.5 FT thru late Monday morning.
* Flood stage 29.0 ft
* Monitor stage 24.5 ft
* Impact...Near 26.0 feet, Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. 
  The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
* Impact...Near 21.0 feet, Seepage begins into crop area outside of 
  levees.

 &&

LAT...LON 3772 12141 3777 12123 3765 12109 3756 12127


$$

CAC077-051913-
/O.ROU.KSTO.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MOSC1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1206 PM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

Forecast information for
  San Joaquin River At Mossdale Bridge.
* At  8:45 AM Saturday the stage was 19.6 feet.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 19.5 FT thru late Monday morning.
* Flood stage 28.5 ft
* Monitor stage 19.5 ft


 &&

LAT...LON 3782 12140 3792 12130 3774 12123 3769 12136


$$

CAC099-051913-
/O.CON.KSTO.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MDSC1.1.ER.170303T2055Z.170304T0615Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1206 PM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tuolumne River At Modesto.
* At  8:30 AM Saturday the stage was 54.9 feet.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 55.0 FT thru late tomorrow morning.
* Flood stage 55.0 ft
* Monitor stage 50.5 ft
* Impact...Near 55.0 feet, This is channel capacity through downtown 
  Modesto.

 &&

LAT...LON 3763 12120 3771 12075 3758 12069 3752 12112


$$

903 
WGUS86 KSTO 042129
FLSLSJ
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
129 PM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
California..

  Tuolumne River At Modesto

.Minor fluctuations expected on the Lower San Joaquin River 
System through the weekend. The Tuolumne River at Modesto and
is forecast to fluctuate near flood stage through the weekend. 
The San Joaquin River at Vernalis is forecast to fluctuate just 
below flood stage through the weekend. 

Forecasts are based on present and forecasted meteorological and 
hydrologic conditions at time of issuance.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Unlisted forecast points are expected to remain below monitor stage.
All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid 
changes and for possible forecast revisions.

For more hydrologic information and stage definitions refer to the 
following web site:  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/hydro_data.php


The next statement will be issued Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 9 AM.

&&

CAC099-052329-
/O.ROU.KSTO.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PATC1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
129 PM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

Forecast information for
  San Joaquin River Near Patterson.
* At 12:45 PM Saturday the stage was 50.0 feet.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 50.0 FT thru near Monday noon.
* Flood stage 54.7 ft
* Monitor stage 48.0 ft


 &&

LAT...LON 3757 12127 3763 12108 3746 12089 3736 12111


$$

CAC077-052328-
/O.ROU.KSTO.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/VNSC1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
129 PM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

Forecast information for
  San Joaquin River Near Vernalis.
* At 12:45 PM Saturday the stage was 28.8 feet.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 28.5 FT thru near Monday noon.
* Flood stage 29.0 ft
* Monitor stage 24.5 ft
* Impact...Near 26.0 feet, Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. 
  The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
* Impact...Near 21.0 feet, Seepage begins into crop area outside of 
  levees.

 &&

LAT...LON 3772 12141 3777 12123 3765 12109 3756 12127


$$

CAC077-052328-
/O.ROU.KSTO.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MOSC1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
129 PM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

Forecast information for
  San Joaquin River At Mossdale Bridge.
* At  1:15 PM Saturday the stage was 19.7 feet.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 19.5 FT thru near Monday noon.
* Flood stage 28.5 ft
* Monitor stage 19.5 ft


 &&

LAT...LON 3782 12140 3792 12130 3774 12123 3769 12136


$$

CAC099-052328-
/O.CON.KSTO.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MDSC1.1.ER.170303T2055Z.170304T0615Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
129 PM PST SAT MAR 4 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tuolumne River At Modesto.
* At 12:30 PM Saturday the stage was 54.9 feet.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 55.0 FT thru near tomorrow noon.
* Flood stage 55.0 ft
* Monitor stage 50.5 ft
* Impact...Near 55.0 feet, This is channel capacity through downtown 
  Modesto.

 &&

LAT...LON 3763 12120 3771 12075 3758 12069 3752 12112


$$
HEC

643 
WGUS86 KSTO 052131
FLSLSJ
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
131 PM PST SUN MAR 5 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
California...
 
  Tuolumne River At Modesto

.Minor fluctuations expected on the Lower San Joaquin River 
System through early this week. The Tuolumne River at Modesto and
the San Joaquin River at Vernalis are forecast to fluctuate just 
below flood stage through early this week.

Forecasts are based on present and forecasted meteorological and 
hydrologic conditions at time of issuance.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Unlisted forecast points are expected to remain below monitor stage.
All those affected by river conditions should remain alert for rapid 
changes and for possible forecast revisions.

For more hydrologic information and stage definitions refer to the 
following web site:  http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/hydro_data.php


The next statement will be issued Monday, March 6, 2017 at 9 AM.

&&

CAC099-062331-
/O.ROU.KSTO.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PATC1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
131 PM PST SUN MAR 5 2017

Forecast information for
  San Joaquin River Near Patterson.
* At 12:45 PM Sunday the stage was 49.5 feet.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 49.5 FT thru near Tuesday noon.
* Flood stage 54.7 ft
* Monitor stage 48.0 ft


 &&

LAT...LON 3757 12127 3763 12108 3746 12089 3736 12111


$$

CAC077-062330-
/O.ROU.KSTO.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/VNSC1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
131 PM PST SUN MAR 5 2017

Forecast information for
  San Joaquin River Near Vernalis.
* At 12:45 PM Sunday the stage was 28.7 feet.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 28.5 FT thru near Tuesday noon.
* Flood stage 29.0 ft
* Monitor stage 24.5 ft
* Impact...Near 26.0 feet, Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. 
  The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
* Impact...Near 21.0 feet, Seepage begins into crop area outside of 
  levees.

 &&

LAT...LON 3772 12141 3777 12123 3765 12109 3756 12127


$$

CAC077-062330-
/O.ROU.KSTO.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MOSC1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
131 PM PST SUN MAR 5 2017

Forecast information for
  San Joaquin River At Mossdale Bridge.
* At  1:00 PM Sunday the stage was 19.6 feet.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 19.5 FT thru near Tuesday noon.
* Flood stage 28.5 ft
* Monitor stage 19.5 ft


 &&

LAT...LON 3782 12140 3792 12130 3774 12123 3769 12136


$$

CAC099-052201-
/O.CAN.KSTO.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-170305T2131Z/
/MDSC1.1.ER.170303T2055Z.170304T0615Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
131 PM PST SUN MAR 5 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tuolumne River At Modesto.
* At 12:30 PM Sunday the stage was 54.8 feet.
* Forecast to fluctuate near 55.0 FT thru near tomorrow noon.
* Flood stage 55.0 ft
* Monitor stage 50.5 ft
* Impact...Near 55.0 feet, This is channel capacity through downtown 
  Modesto.

 &&

LAT...LON 3763 12120 3771 12075 3758 12069 3752 12112


$$
HEC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
406 AM PST Fri Mar 3 2017

.Synopsis...
Dry weather today then cooler unsettled weather over the weekend
into Monday. Drier weather returns Tuesday.

&&

.Discussion...
Interior NorCal will enjoy one more day of dry, warm weather
today. Valley highs will range in the low 60s around Redding and
Red Bluff, the mid 60s around Sacramento Metro region, and the mid
to upper 60s for the Stockton-Modesto vicinity. Across higher
terrain, daytime highs will be in the mid 40s to 50s.

On Saturday, we transition into a cooler, wetter pattern as a
storm over the Eastern Pacific moves into the West Coast.
Precipitation should spread across our entire CWA during the
afternoon hours. Snow levels will start off around 5000 feet on
Saturday, then lower significantly on Sunday. Expect snow levels
across Shasta County to drop around 1500 feet impacting the
Interstate 5 corridor. Across the Sierra, snow levels will range
2500 to 3000 feet and impact mountain travel. Snow levels remain
low into Monday as precipitation continues in our region. In
addition to mountain snow, gusty winds along the higher elevations
could cause white out conditions this weekend. Motorists should
realize that if they go up to the mountains on Friday when weather
is clear, then the ride home on Sunday or Monday will be impacted
by snow and wind.

Winter Storm Watch still in effect for elevations of 3000 feet and
higher. Light snow accumulations will occur between 1500 to 3000
feet. Snow totals around 3000 feet should range 4 to 10 inches
with up to 3 feet of snow near the passes. Heaviest snow will
occur on Saturday. Rain totals in the valley will range around
0.40" to a little over an inch. Precipitation will begin to taper
off late Monday into Tuesday.

JBB

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

Extended models now in fairly good agreement showing flat ridge
over the west coast next Tuesday. A short wave trough moving
through the Pacific Northwest and Norcal, also modeled fairly
consistantly by models, will bring a threat of showers north of
about interstate 80. Moderate snow levels and limited moisture
will mean this will be a fairly unimpactful system. Upper ridge
will continue to amplify over the west coast on Wednesday but not
before one last shortwave rides over the ridge bringing a slight
threat of showers over the coast range and northern mountains.
Upper ridge may build enough by Thursday to push precipitation
threat north of the forecast area but models differ on this idea.
For now, have kept Thursday and Friday dry but subsequent models
may sag the precipitation line southward. Still looking for a
warming trend through the extended period with daytime highs near
normal Tuesday climbing to several degrees above normal by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR next 24 hours. Increasing clouds northern Sacramento valley
with a slight chance of light showers after 06z Saturday.
Southerly winds to 15 knots increasing over the Sierra Saturday
morning.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Mountains
Southwestern Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Shasta Lake
Area / Northern Shasta County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-
Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Carquinez Strait
and Delta-Northern San Joaquin Valley.

&&