Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2017

Tornado Watch 99

March 29, 201717 counties in Kansas; 40 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 29, 2017, 3:48 PM CDT for 17 counties in Kansas; 40 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 29, 2017, 3:48 PM CDT (20:48 UTC)
Expired
Mar 29, 2017, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 57 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Labette County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Osage County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 29, 3:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPJefferson, Osage, Shawnee37 min
Mar 29, 4:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJohnson, Leavenworth, Wyandotte24 min
Mar 29, 5:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJohnson, Leavenworth, Wyandotte30 min
Mar 29, 5:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJohnson, Wyandotte38 min
Mar 29, 5:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXClay, Jackson37 min
Mar 29, 7:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDent, Texas61 min
Mar 29, 7:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTOPDouglas, Jefferson, Shawnee20 min
Mar 29, 7:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFOzark, Taney47 min
Mar 29, 7:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCamden, Dallas, Laclede43 min
Mar 29, 8:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDouglas, Ozark44 min
Mar 29, 8:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCamden, Miller43 min
Mar 29, 8:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFOzark50 min
Mar 29, 8:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDouglas, Texas, Wright48 min
Mar 29, 8:44 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFDouglas46 min
Mar 29, 8:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCamden, Laclede42 min
Mar 29, 9:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCamden, Miller27 min
Mar 29, 9:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFPhelps, Texas34 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2017-03-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2017-03-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 410 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
563 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
410 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
439 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

365 
WWUS20 KWNS 292046
SEL9  
SPC WW 292046
KSZ000-MOZ000-300400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 99
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Kansas
  Western and south-central Missouri

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM
  until 1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...The air mass continues to gradually destabilize to the
east of a surface low and along/south of a northward-spreading warm
front across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Severe hail may be
the most common risk initially. With time, a tornado risk may
increase particularly across parts of western/southern Missouri
where damaging winds will also be a concern.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 10 miles east northeast of Olathe KS to
50 miles south southeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 20035.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 29, 2:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Cherokee, Coffey, Crawford and 9 more2 hr
Mar 29, 6:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Johnson and 2 more97 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2017Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2017Every tornado watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.