Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321

June 12, 201740 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jun 12, 2017, 9:09 PM EDT for 40 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 12, 2017, 9:09 PM EDT (01:09 UTC)
Expired
Jun 13, 2017, 2:09 AM EDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 40 counties

Alcona County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Huron County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
5%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
40%

Warnings issued inside it

4 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 12, 10:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXBenzie, Grand Traverse, Leelanau, Manistee, Wexford56 min
Jun 12, 11:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXAntrim, Charlevoix, Grand Traverse, Leelanau35 min
Jun 12, 11:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXAntrim, Crawford, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Missaukee, Wexford60 min
Jun 13, 12:36 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXAlcona, Crawford, Iosco, Ogemaw, Oscoda, Roscommon54 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2017-06-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 827 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2017-06-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 17 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
827 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-151 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1731 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
58 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

487 
WWUS20 KWNS 130105
SEL1  
SPC WW 130105
MIZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-130800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
905 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central Lower Michigan
  Lake Huron
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 905 PM
  until 400 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...A well-developed, occasionally severe, bowing arc of
thunderstorms in eastern Wisconsin may survive its trek across a
shallow/stable marine layer of Lake Michigan and pose a threat of
damaging wind in Lower Michigan.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of
Manistee MI to 5 miles north northeast of Bad Axe MI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 317...WW 318...WW
319...WW 320...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27035.

...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 12, 10:30 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcona, Arenac, Bay, Benzie, Clare, Clinton and 29 more90 min
Jun 13, 12:58 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcona, Alpena, Crawford, Gladwin, Iosco, Montmorency and 3 more92 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2017Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.