Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 979
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 10, 2017, 3:31 PM CDT for Lake County, Saint Louis County, Minnesota. It was in force for 119 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 10, 2017, 3:31 PM CDT (20:31 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 10, 2017, 5:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Lake County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN
The radar
The Duluth radar (KDLH), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1069 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 64 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 882 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 905 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.3
The text
As transmitted.
309
ACUS11 KWNS 102031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102031
MNZ000-102230-
Mesoscale Discussion 0979
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017
Areas affected...MN Arrowhead
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 102031Z - 102230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail are possible during the next few hours across the MN arrowhead.
A watch is not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis show the frontal boundary is
located from just east of ORB southwestward through AIT. Visible
imagery shows an increasingly agitated cu field along and just ahead
of this boundary. The character of this cu field suggests convective
inhibition is eroding, which matches the most recent mesoanalysis
estimates of little remaining convective inhibition. Temperatures
have warmed into the upper 80s ahead of the front, which, when
coupled with dewpoints in the mid 60s and steep mid-level lapse
rates is supportive of MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. Additionally,
downstream kinematic profiles characterized by strong mid-level flow
(over 70 kt at 500 mb) and ample bulk shear (over 60 kt from 0-6 km
per the latest mesoanalysis) suggest the potential for storm
organization. The persistent warm mid-level temperatures and
associated capping will likely temper convective coverage and the
current expectation is for any thunderstorm activity to remain
co-located with the frontal boundary. Even so, favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment results in the potential for
a few damaging wind gusts and hail with any storms that do develop.
Anticipated limited spatial and temporal extent of the threat is
expected to preclude the need for a watch.
..Mosier/Bunting.. 06/10/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...
LAT...LON 47349296 48229191 48249111 47899032 46759218 46649314
47349296SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 7:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Kittson, Marshall, Norman, Polk | 67 min |
| Jun 9, 9:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Kittson and 9 more | 60 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.