Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 968

June 8, 2017Morton County, Stevens County, Kansas; Beaver County, Ellis County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 22 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 8, 2017, 3:38 PM CDT for Morton County, Stevens County, Kansas; Beaver County, Ellis County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 22 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 8, 2017, 3:38 PM CDT (20:38 UTC)
Expired
Jun 8, 2017, 5:45 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
60%
All 27 counties

Morton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2017-06-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 144 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2017-06-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 244 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
144 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-138 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
825 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
244 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
359 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

454 
ACUS11 KWNS 082038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082038 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-082245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0968
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2017

Areas affected...Southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 082038Z - 082245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail
are expected to form between 22-23Z.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows outflow boundaries from southwest
KS into the eastern OK panhandle, and across the eastern TX
panhandle. South and west of these boundaries, the air mass
continues to heat with temperatures in to the mid 80s and with
dewpoints ranging from the 50s to the lower 60s. These aggregate
outflows are also reflected in the surface pressure fields with a
meso high over south central KS and north west OK. This in turn will
likely maintain southeasterly surface winds through evening, aiding
in overall shear profiles.

One or more storms are expected to form across southwest KS into the
OK panhandle prior to 00Z, with other sporadic activity possibly
developing out of the TX panhandle CU field as well west through
southeast of Amarillo. Modest northwesterly flow aloft atop the
low-level southeasterlies may support southward-moving cells,
perhaps supercellular at times, with large hail of 1.50-2.00" the
primary threat. 

With time, activity may merge with a possible outflow or MCS
developing southeastward out of NM.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 06/08/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34820278 35310251 36140217 36790202 37330185 37450145
            37280100 36890060 36730029 36369964 35699981 34630002
            34280006 34180033 34200112 34210188 34410259 34820278

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 7, 7:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGreeley, Hamilton, Logan, Sherman, Wallace, Wichita3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.