Mesoscale Discussion 965

Issued

Jun 7, 2017, 3:22 PM MDT (21:22 UTC)

Expired

Jun 7, 2017, 5:15 PM MDT

In force

113 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

5%

Counties Bernalillo County, NM, Colfax County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Los Alamos County, NM, Mora County, NM, Quay County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Sandoval County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Socorro County, NM, Taos County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Union County, NM, Valencia County, NM

The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

024 
ACUS11 KWNS 072122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072122 
NMZ000-072315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0965
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0422 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017

Areas affected...Portions of NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072122Z - 072315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/gusty winds may occur
through this evening with the strongest thunderstorms. Watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Beneath upper ridging centered over the Four Corners
region/Southwest, isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed
mainly across the higher terrain of much of NM. Surface dewpoints
generally in the low to mid 40s indicate a relative lack of
low-level moisture across the discussion area, and the 12Z sounding
from ABQ had a precipitable water value of just 0.79 inch.
Regardless, steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-9.0 C/km and diurnal
heating have resulted in mostly weak instability developing across
NM this afternoon, with MLCAPE ranging from 500-1250 J/kg per 21Z
RAP Mesoanalysis. Mid and upper-level flow remain weak per recent
VWPs from KABX and KHDX, although some veering with height is
contributing to 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear. This should be
sufficient to support modest updraft organization within the
strongest cores, and isolated instances of large hail may occur. In
addition, strong/gusty winds will be possible given steep low-level
lapse rates and a well mixed boundary layer enhancing convective
downdrafts. Overall, the severe threat through this evening will
likely be tempered by weak wind shear/updrafts, and watch issuance
is not expected.

..Gleason/Hart.. 06/07/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33640754 35530730 36940611 36950371 36450332 34860317
            33760372 33400538 33640754

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.