Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 962
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 7, 2017, 12:48 PM EDT for 12 counties in Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 7, 2017, 12:48 PM EDT (16:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 7, 2017, 3:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Charlotte County, FL, Collier County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Glades County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Lee County, FL, Martin County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Palm Beach County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL
The radar
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 358 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -97 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 697 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 124 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 155 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 2.6
The text
As transmitted.
509
ACUS11 KWNS 071648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071648
FLZ000-071915-
Mesoscale Discussion 0962
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017
Areas affected...South-central Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 071648Z - 071915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage threat should continue this
afternoon across the south-central Florida Peninsula. A brief
tornado can not be ruled out as well. Weather watch issuance is not
expected but the situation will continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1005 mb low over
the northeastward Gulf of Mexico. A moist airmass is in place from
the low southeastward across the Florida Peninsula where surface
dewpoints are mostly in the lower 70s F. A band of strong
thunderstorms is ongoing across the central Florida Peninsula. Ahead
of this band, a narrow corridor of warmer surface temperatures is
present and the RAP is estimating MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range. In addition, WSR-88D VWPs at Tampa Bay and Melbourne
show 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 kt range with mostly
unidirectional wind profiles. This should continue to support a line
segment as it moves across the south-central Florida Peninsula. A
marginal wind damage threat should exist with bowing structures
embedded in the line. Although low-level shear is not that strong, a
brief tornado may also occur if a cell within the line can develop
rotation.
..Broyles/Guyer.. 06/07/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 26608011 26937993 27568018 28058040 28138081 27308171
26778226 26138198 25638106 26608011SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 10:13 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Miami-Dade | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.