Alert archive

Mesoscale Discussion 960

June 6, 2017

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 6, 2017, 6:33 PM CDT. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 6, 2017, 6:33 PM CDT (23:33 UTC)
Expired
Jun 6, 2017, 8:00 PM CDT
In force
87 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 204 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Santa Teresa, NM at 12:00Z on 2017-06-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 144 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Santa Teresa, NM at 12:00Z on 2017-06-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 34 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
144 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-351 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2088 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
294 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

307 
ACUS11 KWNS 062333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062333 
NMZ000-070100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0960
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2017

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 305...

Valid 062333Z - 070100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 305
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorm
development remains possible along the eastern slopes of the
Sacramento Mountains and north of Tucumcari NM through 00-02Z.  The
need for an additional severe weather watch this evening appears
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong storm development continues to
develop across parts of eastern New Mexico, in the presence of
generally light (but modestly sheared in spots) northwesterly deep
layer mean flow and steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates.  CAPE
appears largest (1000-2000 J/kg) within relatively moist upslope
flow along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains.  And this
environment seems to offer the best potential for sustained vigorous
storm development, including supercell structures, through the
00-02Z time frame.

A small consolidating cluster of thunderstorms north of Tucumcari NM
could pose a risk for a strong downburst during the next hour or two
while slowly developing southward.  Eventually, though, this
activity may be disrupted by convective outflow now slowly advancing
northward through the Tucumcari area.

..Kerr.. 06/06/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   33670549 33720498 32950449 32320459 32760530 32860552
            33670549

Nearby

Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.