Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 950
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 5, 2017, 1:30 PM CDT for 10 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 5, 2017, 1:30 PM CDT (18:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 5, 2017, 4:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Brooks County, TX, Cameron County, TX, Duval County, TX, Hidalgo County, TX, Jim Hogg County, TX, Jim Wells County, TX, Kenedy County, TX, Kleberg County, TX, Starr County, TX, Willacy County, TX
The radar
The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 135 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1436 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -95 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 944 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 23 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 75 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.7
The text
As transmitted.
195
ACUS11 KWNS 051830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051830
TXZ000-052100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0950
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017
Areas affected...Deep South TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 051830Z - 052100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts possible as
thunderstorm coverage increases this afternoon. Convective trends
across the region will be monitored for possible watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Strong instability continues to build across deep south
TX with temperatures already in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is
around 2500 J/kg across much of the region, with little to no
convective inhibition remaining. This erosion of the convective
inhibition sample on the 12Z BRO and CRP soundings is further
evidenced by the increasing cu field noted on recent visible
imagery.
Modest forcing for ascent (associated with a weak perturbation
rounding the western periphery of the upper low) will continue to
interact with this unstable environment over the next few hours,
likely supporting an increase in both thunderstorm coverage and
strength. Additionally, slightly stronger mid-level flow through the
base of the upper low will contribute to stronger bulk shear and the
potential for updraft organization. These stronger, more organized
storms will have the potential to produce large hail and damaging
winds gusts. Limited spatial extent of the threat precludes higher
watch probabilities but convective trends across the region will be
monitored closely.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/05/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON 26799915 27559900 27849822 27509747 26189720 25959747
26359882 26799915Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.