Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 941
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 2, 2017, 5:49 PM CDT for 7 counties in Iowa; 26 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 2, 2017, 5:49 PM CDT (22:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 2, 2017, 8:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 33 counties
Cerro Gordo County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Worth County, IA, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Dodge County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mower County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Pope County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Steele County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wright County, MN
The radar
The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1706 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 78 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 90 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
127
ACUS11 KWNS 022249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022249
IAZ000-MNZ000-030115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0941
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017
Areas affected...Portions of central/southern MN and northern IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 022249Z - 030115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorm potential will exist into the
evening hours from portions of central MN into northern IA, though
Watch issuance will not be needed.
DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating has allowed temperatures to warm
into the lower 90s in many areas west/southwest of a warm front
draped northwest-southeast from west-central MN to north-central IA.
This boundary will continue to advance eastward/northeastward into
the evening hours. Weak warm advection near this boundary, coupled
with diurnally bolstered baroclinic circulations across the
boundary, have promoted widely scattered thunderstorm development --
concentrated across the warm side of the frontal zone. Steep
tropospheric lapse rates are supporting 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
characterizing convective inflow, despite an overall paucity of
low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 50s). Large DCAPE will
support microbursts with an isolated damaging-wind risk, especially
where local cold-pool amalgamation occurs. Severe hail may also
accompany incipient intense updrafts. However, with stronger
effective shear -- and only reaching 20-25 kt -- displaced to the
cool side of the boundary, storms should remain disorganized while
slowly spreading eastward/southeastward into the evening hours.
Isolated severe hail potential may persist well into the evening
hours, as a cross-frontal low-level jet nocturnally strengthens
encouraging some increase in warm advection and elevated convection
potential.
..Cohen/Thompson.. 06/02/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...
LAT...LON 42789394 43839467 45299558 45959566 46179516 45699417
44689301 43869249 43039251 42789291 42789394Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.