Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 937
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 2, 2017, 1:37 PM CDT for 38 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 2, 2017, 1:37 PM CDT (18:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 2, 2017, 4:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 38 counties
Andrews County, TX, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Borden County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Ector County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Garza County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Howard County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Kent County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Moore County, TX, Motley County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 10 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 93 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -82 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 804 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 5 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -61 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 33 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
993
ACUS11 KWNS 021837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021837
TXZ000-NMZ000-022100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0937
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017
Areas affected...Western/Central TX Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 021837Z - 022100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of landspouts possible through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a well-defined MCV near
the central TX/NM border with building cumulus to the east of this
feature across the western TX Panhandle. Weak flow aloft and
resulting minimal shear will preclude organized thunderstorm
activity and mostly weak multicellular is anticipated. Even so,
vorticity-rich environment fostered by the presence of the MCV
combined with the presence of steep low-level lapse rates (i.e.
around 7.5 to 8 deg C per km from 0-3 km per the latest
mesoanalysis) and low-level instability (evidenced by 0-3 km MLCAPE
generally greater than 75 J/kg) will result in the potential for a
few brief, non-mesocyclone tornadoes (i.e. landspouts) this
afternoon. Brief and very marginal nature of the threat posed by any
of these landspouts precludes the need for a watch.
..Mosier/Weiss.. 06/02/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 31850273 32720296 34700307 35940277 36010145 35560095
33610072 32830070 31850104 31850273Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.