Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 937

June 2, 201738 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 2, 2017, 1:37 PM CDT for 38 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 2, 2017, 1:37 PM CDT (18:37 UTC)
Expired
Jun 2, 2017, 4:00 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%
All 38 counties

Andrews County, TX, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Borden County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Ector County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Garza County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Howard County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Kent County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Moore County, TX, Motley County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 10 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2017-06-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 93 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2017-06-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -61 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
93 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-82 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
804 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
5 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-61 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
33 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

993 
ACUS11 KWNS 021837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021837 
TXZ000-NMZ000-022100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0937
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017

Areas affected...Western/Central TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 021837Z - 022100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of landspouts possible through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a well-defined MCV near
the central TX/NM border with building cumulus to the east of this
feature across the western TX Panhandle. Weak flow aloft and
resulting minimal shear will preclude organized thunderstorm
activity and mostly weak multicellular is anticipated. Even so,
vorticity-rich environment fostered by the presence of the MCV
combined with the presence of steep low-level lapse rates (i.e.
around 7.5 to 8 deg C per km from 0-3 km per the latest
mesoanalysis) and low-level instability (evidenced by 0-3 km MLCAPE
generally greater than 75 J/kg) will result in the potential for a
few brief, non-mesocyclone tornadoes (i.e. landspouts) this
afternoon. Brief and very marginal nature of the threat posed by any
of these landspouts precludes the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Weiss.. 06/02/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   31850273 32720296 34700307 35940277 36010145 35560095
            33610072 32830070 31850104 31850273

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.